Monday, December 31, 2007


Short AAPL, FSLR and AMZN now for the first day or two of '08.

Long ONXX, C, COH, SBUX, CAF and GENZ (C, COH and SBUX are for the first trading day or two of '08 only, as well).

58% net-long for now - see you then.

Quick Note

Selling winners and buying losers here - all daylong [end of year/beginning of year parity trade].

I haven't shorted winners just yet, but I expect to get short FSLR and AAPL before the close. Others I am considering are BIDU, PCLN, AMZN, DECK and ISRG (all institutional darlings).

On the long-side, I have been scaling into COH and SBUX already and I am looking for other losers; even C (lordy).

I won't go crazy with the number of names, but I will get crazy enough to short winners and get long some losers.

Safety Dance

I started chopping-back early today, since the action in the overall market was none so hot. This was a good thing too, since the action remains pretty poor and things are getting pretty thin out there now (in terms of liquidity), and I had a lot on my sell-list today.

I'm not selling today because of anything so ugly on these respective charts. I don't like holding much of anything going into a new year and I especially don't need a dozen+ names to babysit while I suss-out the new action in the new year.

In a nutshell (case), the new year brings changes and is (more) difficult to speculate on. My feeling remains that I think January will be live for getting long aggressive growth names, but I would like the market to spell it out for me first - let someone else make the money in the meantime. When the money is on the floor, on the other side of the room, I'll get up and go pick it up. Until then it's safety-first (I'll be strapping myself safely inside my iron lung and watching the Rockford Files marathon-reruns).

I will hold a couple of bio's here; likely holding the ONXX and GENZ into '08. I can dump them easily enough on Wednesday if they go hell-bound out of the gate.

I will be selling the remainder of JASO today, however. I don't want a single share long of the previous year's biggest group (solars in the case of '07) for the first few days of trading in the new year. The winners tend to see profit-taking and the losers tend to get bid-up a bit. There are exceptions, but I can't predict the exceptions ahead of time.

For this reason I am also selling all of AAPL before the day closes.

I expect to then short AAPL and at least one other big winner in '07, for the above reasons, as a quick trade (covering the first or second trading day of '08).

In the loser camp, I may take a quick-stab long with SBUX, COH and maybe something else; first things first. I'll do my work on this in a moment and I'll place those orders in the last hour (maybe the final minutes, depending) today.

I have sold most of the JASO (early) and all of the MR, PCLN, TNH(!) and YGE (another Chinese solar). I still have to sell LOGI, AAPL and the remaining JASO. I'll hold the Shanghai postion, CAF, into the new year as well.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Quick Note

Bot back full AAPL position at 198.87.

Market smells live here.

Current Position (by size): AAPL, JASO, PCLN, ONXX, MR, LOGI, TNH, CAF, YGE, GENZ

Pressure Post

Ok, the market just blew through the yesterday lows. Not exactly as planned, but I haven't thrown in the towel yet.

Neither breadth nor volume is very negative here. This is a lot like the low-liquidity, pre-holiday sessions I have come to love so much. In short, sellers get their handy-work out of the way (so they can take the time off without worrying) and the market then drifts higher for the holiday session.

Why go on vacation when you can make money instead? Losers!

Yep, my ass is in the broiler at the moment. You can hear the hope seeping through the screen.

But seriously, that last wave of selling here just didn't impress me. I am buying more JASO now (ave. 71.31). I can't let go of the idea this is firming and will see a decent rise between now and Monday's last hour. We'll see. It is my biggest position now - I will have to sell new shares if it takes out the intraday low of 70.25 after 2 pm est.

I did sell the PWRD, which is just not the quality stock I want to hope with if we're in a questionable market trend. YGE is also a little questionable (re quality), but I am holding this one so far. The rest of the portfolio is respectable enough; maybe not TNH, but that one is breaking out still, so I'm giving it full reign >140.

Posting Up

The action remains mostly quiet, but mostly positive. If we can maintain this posture, we are set up for a decent pre-holiday move higher between now and Monday's close. I would expect the easiest money to come on Monday.

I'm buying a decent amount of PCLN here (ave. 119.17). I will sell all of this between now and Monday's close.

I may add to JASO, if it can rally back above its 10-day, >72.26; assuming the market internals remain decent.

I've so far avoided re-entering AAPL and GOOG, preferring stocks above today's open-highs; especially given my time frame is less than 2 trading days now. Both of these will likely be higher this time Monday, however, and I will stab at them...if they insist.

Current Position (by size): PCLN, ONXX, JASO, MR, LOGI, TNH, CAF, YGE, GENZ, PWRD

[CAF is at higher-highs again today - the chart-link here has not adjusted for yesterday's dividend payout]

And the Market Says...

There is [was?] a gentle, quiet and overall positive action 30 minutes into trading today, but nothing gang-buster and nothing yet which suggests piling right back into a fully long position. I'm shopping for ideas, but I want to see most of the opening 90 minutes before committing anything. I still have 55% of the position I came into the day with yesterday, which feels about right for the moment.

FWLT is weak again, trading below the yesterday low and with today's early high seeing Resistance right at the 10-day m.a. (10-day is a useful 'trading' average). I'm blowing this name out if it trades below the 153.79.

LOGI is in break-out territory. Watching volume there, which is low so far; like almost everything today. I don't need the normal 3-4 x's ave. to get inspired here. And I have a reasonable-size position in LOGI already.

I mentioned previously we had a half-session coming on Monday. Actually, Monday is a normal session for equities. I'm canceling my half-day cruise to Bora Bora now.

We are sliding down a bit now (market) and I just got stopped on FWLT. Goodnight sweet prince on that one. JASO is attacking yesterday's low. I sense the market will re-capture its legs here, but we shall see. I actually prefer some amount of testing down, but I don't want to drive below yesterday lows. Looks like I'm a buyer one direction and a seller in the other. I want to get the rest of the year out of this long-only portfolio, but I'll force myself into early retirement if I have to.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Further Note

Cutting positions late here.

out of all AAPL (ave. 198.50), ANSS (ave. 41.68), GOOG (703.45) and SLT (24.75). Still holding FWLT, but with closing bench of 155.60.

[Edit: Pretty good thwack in the market last hour and given my game is a reactionary one...I unloaded my largest positions; as they took out previous lows from earlier in day. I cannot justify a heavy position in the market this moment, but I will trade back in for 1-2 remaining '07 days if tomorrow internals are decent. If tomorrow internals are further negative, I will cut back more instead. In either case, I still expect to be very light by the close of the half-session on Monday and I will be short a couple of the biggest '07 winners by Mon close - for a quick re-balance/re-parity play (discuss this further as we approach Mon). As for today's implications (geopolitics, etc.), best to put the noise aside and see how the market handles everything going forward. No need to be very smart right now - just react instead - be safe when things get unclear and forget about collecting dollars in front of the steam roller; etc. etc.].

Current Holdings (by size): ONXX, MR, JASO, LOGI, TNH, FWLT, CAF, YGE, GENZ, PWRD
[I reduced 45% of my (dollar-weighted) holdings today]

Quick Note

The market remains weak, but so far it is still showing some resilience under the surface and overall volume is not heavy (selling pressure not serious). I am sitting on hands so far.

SLT seems affected by the Pakistani news today and I will be letting this name go at the close if <24.80.

TNH breakout is still in effect. I'll be holding the increased position for now, as long as it remains >140; I may increase further if the market manages to rally in the final hour.

I will sell FWLT at the close today if that one is trading 155.60 or lower.

JASO bounced off of the 10-day (71.43) and looks live again. I lightened up on strength there yesterday, but would consider adding it right back for a trade if the market re-firms here or tomorrow.

BIDU is poised for a potential breakout.


The market has started off lower again today, but this time with a little more vigor.

The Russell 2000, NYSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Dow are all trading below their yesterday lows; something we haven't seen in several sessions now (the NDX is holding out above that level so far today). Market breadth is clearly negative. Volume is rising from yesterday, but not heavy (not surprising given the holiday nature of this week).

I'm not bailing out in a panic ahead of schedule just yet (I'm still hoping to give this position an opportunity to get to the last trading day of the year on Monday). But I am reducing-overall now and if action gets worse I will start throwing relative amounts of babies out with the bath water.

Or I might just hedge, depending on how well the names are acting relative to the market overall.

I sold the new JRJC at 25.22. No need for further nickels collected in front of a steam roller, if you know what I mean. Stick with the winners now that the market is checking.

I actually added to TNH at 142.50 as that was breaking-out earlier. I may end up unloading new shares, adding more or bailing on this position altogether; depending on how it handles the rest of the day. It is well off the highs now.

Current Position (by size): GOOG, ANSS, AAPL, ONXX, MR, JASO, LOGI, TNH, SLT, FWLT, CAF, YGE, GENZ, PWRD

[CAF is actually up 2.5% today - there was a dividend payout and the chart is not yet adjusted. I still like being long Shanghai for now]

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Quick Note

The market is firming nicely and smaller growth stocks are popping right and left at the moment.

I took a small position in JRJC (ave. 23.14). JRJC is a Chinese online trading services company and a former-glory play that had run way-up earlier in the year. There may of may not be a very strong catch-up day coming in this name now that it may be breaking above its downtrend line on rising volume. I will sell this by tomorrow assuming it takes off here.

I passed up a dozen other possible plays, mainly because I am already long so many names...but things still look good out there.

TNH looks poised to break out here, FYI. Others in this group have already broken-out, but this one has a very interesting consolidation and could be powerful.

Obscene Serene

You have to like the action on the market's pullback thus far today.

After Monday's pre-holiday, low-volume up-shot, which quietly strode my position into realms somewhere above general and common decency, the portfolio here is still climbing (so far) today; even as the market succumbs to a bit of low-volume profit taking.

There is nothing overly concerning about today's market action.

I've succumbed a bit to post-xmas trimmings myself. I'm slathering goose flesh and jellyfish jam on leftover toast this morning while cutting back some of my more extended names in the portfolio.

I sold the remaining CSIQ (30.58) and I cut 40% of JASO (76.49).

I'm looking to unload nearly all of the rest of my position by Monday (31st) and I will short a couple of the more obscene '07 market winners sometime late Monday; for the inevitable profit-taking which hits this type of stock in the beginning of a new year. I'm expecting decent January action in the market overall, however, but I will hold an Missourian stance on the new year until I see the strength first...just in case. Also, it is wise to determine where the new group-strength and general trends lie before placing fresh-year bets.

For now though, I remain heavy-handed and I hope to hold most of this weight as long as possible. I'm also willing to trade into something new, if compelling, as this seasonal-strength week progresses (recognizing that breakouts may not be of the high-volume affair - which is ok considering the holiday nature, as long as breakout levels are sustained).

Christmas only comes 6 or 8 trading days a year - hope you were on that trade ;)

Current position, by order of size: GOOG, AAPL, ANSS, ONXX, MR, JASO, LOGI, SLT, FWLT, CAF, TNH, YGE, GENZ, PWRD.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Breathing Higher

I'm out of town again. This time not because of any sideline spree, I'm still holding plenty of stock.

I'm out of town because this is my favorite holiday thrush-and-plush week. The market should continue a slow and easy crawl upward here and if there is going to be a fly in that ointment I don't think it will show itself until late in the week or on the 31st at earliest. The period between now and the 31st is typically the least volatile period of the year and the year's leadership stocks like to crawl steadily higher.

Presently I'm hard-boiling from within a giant traditional Japanese rotunda barrel tub, complete with all the natural salts and salad greens a dunk like this is accustomed. My masseuse, Ms. Divina, employs the traditional grated-cheese-scrub and rubber slapjack, followed with a succession of 5,135 forced body squats. There's some pretty sophisticated charts and whistles up on the wall plotting vitals like my heart rate, blood temperature and inner-most thoughts. By the time I roll out of here tomorrow I will have shed 35-38 lbs of head fat.

I'm not expecting much in the way of changes to my position the next couple of trading days. If the action is indeed a low-volume, gradual increase in prices, I'll be looking to hold as much of this position as possible and then unload on Monday (the 31st). I don't want '07 winners at the beginning of '08. We'll get into why that is true later in the week.

For now I have to peel a little skin and relax. Hopefully the market cooperates - I'm thinking it will.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Quick Note

Faith-buy late here w a tranche of GENZ (ave. 76.19); volume on that is rising as it begins challenging the upper end of its range - looks very much ready to launch/breakout . I will try to get more if breaks >76.50 on vol. - these shares are in case it gaps on me Monday, or just moves too far before I can get it land in the boat; throw it back on Monday if it fails or if it's broken-out with only light volume.

Solars are a little sloppy late in the day. I trimmed fractionally YGE and JASO. I'm holding all of the reduced CSIQ position (already smaller). I only trimmed 15 and 20% of the other two.

Not crazy about the breakout in FSLR...let Cramer make the money on that one.

New breakout play ANSS is a little disappointing. The volume pace slowed 2nd half of today and now it is not looking like 3x's+ normal vol is going to happen. It is above the breakout still, but off of highs. I may cut it loose at close, or Monday, depending.

I didn't mention earlier I trimmed the MR at the 10-day (40.91), as volume remains too lackluster on this move to be one of my heaviest positions. I still like this name and assume we'll see a breakout to new highs (>45) by sometime before the end of January (however, I don't know how bullishly inclined I will be in January. I'm guessing I'll be bullish on aggressive growth stocks, but my crystal ball sank with the Titanic and I'm not married to next-month scenarios).

Here is the portfolio as it stands late in the day (back to 15 names, by order of size): GOOG, JASO, AAPL, ANSS, ONXX, MR, LOGI, SLT, FWLT, CAF, TNH, YGE, GENZ, PWRD, CSIQ.

Wearing My Woot Suit

The Big W forming on the Russell and NYSE (noted Wednesday morning here) is saliva and well - sharp-penciled technicians can now call it confirmed - woot! Actually, the W thing is true in other indices as well, but the broader, smaller indices were weakest before this launch.

We could cool a bit now near-term (certainly now that the technicians are in the room), or we may just keep rising. However, I am not giving up my bloated position in the market yet, confirmation from the late-to-the-party-boys or not - the calendar at the moment says keep adding or sit on your hands.

I'm doing both.

This is saying a lot from me (who?), since you may have noticed the smart thing this year has consistently been to sell the rushes (at least by the close of the day we rush). However, something is fresh-and-different now (smells like a pine fresh deforest) AND next week has the seasonal slatherings of Christmas Present...

I remain bloated - fat -fat -fat - 300 lbs and no muscle!

Seriously - Monday is a half-day, pre-holiday session. It could be slow and boring, but I can (somewhat) assure you the leadership stocks will be up on the day. Unless we choke on all this butter later today, we are in the sweet spot still on Monday. After that is 3 of the most likely days for leadership stocks to rise in the year. You get my (pencil) point.

I'm adding breakout name ANSS here; about 2/3rds complete now at an ave, of 42.36.

ANSS is below my ave. now, not a great sign; I will add further only higher-up. But if it closes below the brkout, lower ~41.50, I will throw it to the wolves and move on - Don't hold breakout plays that cannot hold their brkout.

CEDC is the juciest breaking out today - but it is too far above the trigger-point already. The same happened to me yesterday by the time I caught onto BYI and LNN. The same the day before with some other(s). Tough to keep track - which is a fresh change for the market.

And I am looking to load further any qualified breakouts. To qualify I need 25+% and rising eps growth/rev; a vol pace 3-4 x's normal ave; and I need to buy no more than 2 or 3% (depending on beta) above breakout range.

That criteria eliminates most of the breakouts out there (thank god), which is a large reason I focus so much on poised set-ups (so I can get them leaving the station).

I'm also trimming any trouble here (very little so far). I blew out the SIGM position early today (ave. 61.99), as it took out yesterday's low. There is no buisness in lower-lows for an aggressive growth stock (w/ no news) on a day like today (SIGM has no news I can see without digging into possible others in the biz causing the problem - no time for losers right now). If it holds the breakout and 50-day levels below (~59.30/60.30), I'll reconsider; but I'm culling out deadwood due to having so many names and it was the least live of my too-many positions.

The million or so remaining positions here can be seen in yesterday's post (scroll towards bottom).

New breakouts (most are new today): CEDC, ANSS, BRKR, ICLR, STLD, (low vol), DECK (too small a base), TLEO, XNPT (no vol), FSLR (fresh Cramer-CNBC plug today and low vol - so caution there), BUCY (strong, not enough vol) LKQX, RIG (not enough vol), NBL (low vol), HMSY (low vol), ABAX (too small base), AYE (no vol), MEE (no vol).

[Edit: add AGU]

Poised and perhaps ready: LOGI, ADSK, GENZ, YGE, AAPL, AGU, MCRS, CRZO, MICC (boy, I goofed on letting that go yesterday), VIP, CPLA, GFIG, SUNH, CNQR. Another one I mentioned yesterday, TNH, is still a bit from the breakout - bu it could really fly if it can get above 139 or so. Keep a poisoned dart handy for that small-cap beast.

Normally I don't shop the tiny-caps, but this time of year, in a positive trend, I am happy to fire at the small guys.

There are more but I am busy (huh?). Maybe I will update again today, depending.

[excuse any edit issues - my guy Mable is out today]

Good trading!

Thursday, December 20, 2007

(Very) Lightly Salted

The song remains the same today. I'm still chirping long and overall happy with our progress into the year-end seasonal happy-slush. My skates (stocks) are razor sharp.

I'm not complaining either (ha!). I am adjusting here and there and I am not seeing very many new free-and-clear breakouts on explosive volume (roaring-bull stuff), but many names are nicely poised to give their glass ceilings a run for their money and leadership stocks remian quite svelte.

New (not pathetically-thin) breakouts include BYI (earnings today), BCR and LNN. LNN is a tiny-cap (good time/yr for these), in a strong sector (ag-systems!) and they just destroyed eps estimates today (1 analyst?). It is a little too far above the breakout, percentage-wise, to chase right here and now, but I am looking for the first possible entry there; if it gets away I can't do much in the near-term, but I'm on the job. Keeping an aggie-eye on that one.

A few poised-and-ready patterns at moment include ORCL, HOLX, GENZ, YGE, TNH, ADSK, SMSC and HWAY; any of these look worthy of a play if they can break through the above highs on significant volume.

I haven't done much since yesterday's writing. I added onto JASO and YGE yesterday, only to see one of the more suspect plays in the Chinese-solar group, LDK, spoil the party with muddy-water earnings posted after the close. The lights were off for only about a minute, however, as JASO and YGE don't seem to give a rat's behind (ass!) about LDK's full woe of woeful. We saw this when TSL blew-up a few weeks ago, so last night I just sat on my hands and prayed to the Seasonal Jesus.

The down days are good days to gauge a stock's strength. LDK is showing significant selling pressure today, affecting the group (and should be avoided). JASO, which was a little extended on the upside coming into the day (therefore eligible for getting hit), looks more like a bar of soap under water. It is not down all that much and volume is light (indeed neither JASO nor YGE took out yesterday's low levels so far today) - once this pressure is off, I expect the soap-bar path of least resistance will re-pressure this stock (considerably) higher into the year end.

Santy said so.

I did unload MICC early today and possibly prematurely. Mostly becuse it quickly reversed down when the techs were still quite strong and it has been struggling to get back above the 50-day m.a. (currently at ~109). I don't need 15 names (for hell's sake) and I can use some room for new breakouts; so I am looking for any roach-in-the-room reason to sell or cut any ill-acting names.

Other longs here on the potential quick-chop block at the moment include SLT and PWRD. I need both of these to get above their 50-day's; slightly over head at moment.

Here is the mush-pond as my accounts stand at present (by order of size):

RIMM reports tonight. Crap-shoot city baby! position here, but I'll heat up a nakki, crack open a bottle of ginseng rattle snake cooler and watch the fun.

Good trading Friend-0!

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Seasonal Thyme

The Street rang a bell yesterday.

The smaller, broader indices like the Russell 2000 and the NYSE kicked in and are forming the blissful W-bottom as we speak. If it completes, this implies a run in the smaller arena through and into January. I'm not salting lightly - this is the seasonal young-greens period beginning now and senior maniacs like me are well in-line for the early bird specials.

I mentioned the explicit action in CSIQ, which has further fattened me for winter, but while that one is extreme I'm seeing dozens which are poised to emerge from very nice patterns (and they are not all solars!).

I've piled into first tranches of YGE (ok, that one is solar), SLT and PWRD.

Yesterday I mentioned if GOOG re-captures its 50-day it would be significant (for that stock and for the market as a whole). Naturally I piled large into GOOG above 672.

Let's just say I am loaded now - for BEAR!

A very small/thin name potentially breaking out now is AIR (currently 35.12). I have not fired there, but it did nearly a day's normal volume in the first hour - I might step in before the day is out, depending.

I have 15 names now, so I only want actual and clear breakouts for anything new. And I will drop anything that is not performing, because I am not normally my own mutual fund and I have too many children not to sell the runts who never seem to amount to anything.

Here is the ugly bunch for now, ranked according to size: GOOG, MR, AAPL, ONXX, JASO, MICC, LOGI, SLT, SIGM, FWLT, CAF, TNH, PWRD, YGE, CSIQ...whoa daddy.

If I had to pick only one of these (I wouldn't want that!) based on the power in the chart I'd pick JASO at the moment....still a monster.

And the funny thing is, none of these too-many names are really acting badly today, and the portfolio is up more than a smidgen while the market is lackluster at moment and down. Having no fires to put out on a down day with this many positions is highly unusual. Think about it for a moment - I should be upside-down bleeding while Dianna carves me a new nameplate, but somehow I am spared...well, so far.

Everyone has been complaining about this market (indeed, today's P/C numbers show voluminous disbelief in the upside) and yet we are seeing monster moves out there; confirmations of an intermediate term bottom; and now small-cap out-performance taking hold at a time when those names typically out-perform nicely into January. What do these people want?

I don't need years of visibility to buy a market. If I could make but one bet for the next few years I'd be shorter than Mel Gibson on crutches. I don't need no stinkin' long run.

This is the new and now year-end rally sweathearts (even if it is a smite refined in the teeth) - this is the seasonal sweet-spot. If you can't get long this market because you are worried about all that is buzzing in the fear-tumbler these days, then you need a new hobby (my opinion). And if you are a professional and you can't buy this market here - then you are broken!

Either that or too many of your investors are out-flowing your buying power. I feel that pain brother.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007


Solar (porno)stock CSIQ is up 26%, most of that in last 2 hours - I just sold half at 26.92; jesus

Get it Up!

No time for quiet chat, but we look a lot like we are re-reversing here. If that is the case it will be significant. Then if we take out the early open-highs in the mkt - my view is we will trend higher from here until the 31st (hitting seasonal tenderloin strength gears along the way).

Again, I don't measure the amount of gain - I try to get the primary trend right and I want to be in the leaders when we are chirping higher (or the losers when short, obv.)

I bot back half my AAPL; the other half pending this is a real pivot and not a set-up to spike my bull-ass through the floorboards. Good luck!

[currently long varying amnts of AAPL, CAF, CSIQ, FWLT, JASO, LOGI, MICC, MR, ONXX, SIGM and TNH]

Pressure Point

I'm plenty active here today as I felt forced earlier to hedge this now-growing portfolio (by getting long NDX-Ultrashort QID). But I've already taken profits on the QID (nothing too exciting), as I just don't sense the market trouble is serious at this juncture.

Volume is rising today, but still light and breadth is not at all dramatic. Yesterday's price decline in the indices was sizeable and leadership names took a fair hit, but there was so little volume I think you can safely say it is more a lack of buying than any serious institutional selling we are seeing.

I'm still looking at names to enter at good spots, but I still am waiting for the market to firm before really sticking out the neck. Also, if we are not off the day-lows later in the session I will re-hedge here (likely w QID again) and I may unload a name or two, depending.

I was stopped out of AAPL earlier today at 182.78 (for now), but I swapped that into a tranche of FWLT (148.83); FWLT has touched the 50-day today and so far is holding above that level (147.45), even though the NDX continued driving lower.

NDX leaders ISRG, MICC, BIDU, INTC, AMZN, ORCL, GENZ and GOOG are all dealing with their 50-day's today; and all are below that level at moment. The Nasdaq meanwhile is fighting with its 200-day m.a.

GOOG is >12 points below its 50-day at this writing (50-day = 672 at moment). When you see GOOG recapture that 50-day, I will wager a dollar you will see this market trend higher through to the 31st.

And if you don't...I'll be wishing I had only wagered a dollar.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Quick Note

Added initial tranches of SIGM (62.23) and TNH (117.35); cheating a little by getting a little more long before the market firms, but there are a ton of interesting entries out there at moment while Nasdaq struggles w its 200-day m.a. I can't sit on my hands forever, I guess.

[Edit: I've added another tranche of MR at 38.58]
[Edit: added back a tranche of LOGI at 33.85]


Still gnawing on palm bark here, waiting for the lights to turn holiday green and get fat with the year-end winners into seasonal strength.

Market internals remain negative (still depressive following last week's Fed-farce), but this pullback does not impress me still; It's just a matter how of when the year-end tide turns.

I have nibbled into first tranches of AAPL and MICC long on the pullback today (ave. 188.22 and 106.28) ; this brings my total names now to 5 (MR, JASO, CSIQ, AAPL, MICC). Again, nothing seriously weighted and I am snoring on the beach vs. what is possible for me this time of year (I'm still >70% in cash at moment).

I hot-dogged out and back in JASO in the first hour today, snatching about 1.75 points, but this was due to the poor internals of the general market combined with fellow solar LDK being up a million percent on its own internal, non-industry news (the LDK helped shoot JASO up to 73.95, but the mkt malaise was pretty much sure to check the rise; easy stuff). Anyway, I'm still long JASO and don't expect to give up on that idea before the 31st.

CSIQ is a little trickier, but I am hoping to take that one all the way to year-end as well. I'm looking to trade YGE again as well, but I figure that two solars is plenty for the moment; until the market flashes some life.

Seasonal good-stuff will firm this market at some point this week (my opinion), so given we are this close I will get aggressively long as soon as I see some leg. In other words, once we firm, we are in seasonal strength as far as I am concerned and I'm good to go between that moment and the 31st, so I'll get right to action and put this cash to work.

But only then.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Quick Note (CSIQ)

I added back a tranche of CSIQ (23.395 ave.)with 40 min remaining today. The market is still soft overall, but the solar group remains uber hot.

29 Psalms for 29 Palms

I'm chopping down this palm tree here (for 47 years), eating Thelonious amounts of candied sea weed, raw quail eggs and carotene jam - still waiting to get more aggressive with this market.

Something nice while I wait, my new names from yesterday are raging higher today, even though the market remains asleep at the Whee-lo. Sometimes being a maniac pays dividends. I'm holding and happy with the action on MR, but check out the return to higher ground on ONXX and especially solar-phenom we're cooking with Butagaz.

So, I'm fat and happy at the moment (to go with old and ugly) and I'm just waiting to reload for bear as soon as I can a green light for satisfaction. Next week is the onset of seasonal beauty-strength and the following week is just pure seasonal tenderloin - so I expect to leave this Triangle soon.

Yup, Christmas is coming. I have zero spirit for that sort of thing, but I love when the market gets slow and boring and leadership stocks just drift higher for several days in a row. Makes me very merry.

In the meantime, I'm applying 29 psalm-salve to numerous stingray bites and listening to Ginger Rogers look-a-likes carry on about giving up Botox for that new HGH thing. It's giving me an idea for a new product launch - HGH-Botox: 2-for-1 Fountain of Beauty Juice. These Hollywood types are loving the HGH, as they should. They inject it right into their cheeks and gums for real, smoking-hot pleasure. I'm sending out for a dozen howler monkey butts now to product-test this baby. Keep things safe and effective. I've got a call into Max Factor AND Prince Matchabelli to get the bidding started. We're going with either Nectar Princess or Open the Kimono, I haven't yet decided. I just know my face is feeling younger already.

God I hate the sidelines.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Chance Enhancing

I'm floating on jetsam crates, nibbling on pelican and manatee strips while listening to some politician chortle unspeakable hormone horrors over my solar AM radio.

I'm also nibbling a bit on stocks, a little earlier than expected, but nothing so dramatic as to force me back to shore.

I added back my other half of MR (Ave. 39.82); this was just too good an entry and I figure I can just feed it right back to the crows if it doesn't turn up from here (so far so good). I'm pretty up-beat about this name getting ready for a real breakout up above.

I also re-entered first tranches of JASO (ave. 61.21) and ONXX (ave. 54.70).

That gives me 3 positions, only one of which is slightly heavy.

Mostly, I'm nibbling early because the selling has gotten seriously boring (already). Given they cannot really sell leadership down all that much and the overall selling is under-dramatic, I know if I was short here I would cover - so I may as well scale-in buying now since I am still bullish.

I've got plenty of other names in my sites, but I'm off steroids for most of this week at least. I'll spit fire and long-names (here) as I ingest them. Human growth is sold at a premium where I roll - especially in quantities required for fat old players like me. Just to hear this ballyhoo stemming from horses asses trying to get our grandmother's attention makes me sick. These guys have nothing better to do with our taxes than vilify freak athlete's who want an edge?

I suppose under-performing nits everywhere can breathe a haughty sigh of superiority relief. Their slow asses just narrowed the gap by a full nano-tick.

Yes, I'm a hateful shame of a person (except when I'm short stocks - then I'm a perfect gentleman) and I hate when politician's meddle with greatness. Anyway, no more politics - it's back to hunting salt cod and cuddle shark for me. The secular human growth trend may be waffling, but so far it continues...still

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

High School Fed

I'm not going to waste a lot of time complaining of this Fed. Apparently they didn't really want a 300-point reaction to yesterday's action/announcement, so they text-messaged us last night that something unusual was in the works and gave us the meat pudding this morning.

Either they are deliberate or they are idiots - neither of which is very impressive. Even more fantastic, right now they are on the wire saying this latest breadstick has nothing to do with the market's unkind reaction to yesterday's (in)action.


Whatever, I'm sticking with my new plan of (in)action while the market sorts everything out. I'm in one position only at the moment, a reduced portion of MR. I'm interested in which leaders will get right back on track, which new names will break-out, which sectors will out-perform, etc. etc. I'm not interested in jumping into a popcorn machine and hoping to come out on top.

Full-scale seasonal strength shows a bit of midriff next week. I expect to be firing long soon enough.

And speaking of, my own midriff is fooly exposed at the moment. I've momentarily peeled out of my 3-piece pup-lined synthetic hemp sweat-suit to enjoy a third and fourth batch of praline pineapple poi waffles. This, before going back out to sea and harpooning another couple dozen Blue Hippo Dandelion Crow-tang. My guide is a 90-something year old swami named Hemlock. He's a fifth-generation Tang hunter who has never left the Triangle in his life. He's taught me how to harvest my own sweat and he's a guy who can stay under water without the use of portable devices for more than four Joker's Wild reruns.

Senior Fed officials and wide ranges of collateral means as much to this guy as does the writer's strike. I'm just happy to get a day off and use this fancy spearmint gun.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Disappointment Ointment

Disappointing results from the Fed. Given that they did not cut either the FF rate or discount rate more than 25-bp, it is surprising the corresponding statement was not more illustrative of imminent lower rates to come; as in soon.

The market will get tested some here and we could be susceptible to pulling back following the decent recent run-up and the temporary lack of any real seasonal strength.

Remember, recent Fed-speak broadcasted a new and aggressive commitment to lowering rates. Today's score is 0-3 in terms of satisfaction from the Fed (FF, DiscntR + Stmnt). I remain positive on the leadership names to be mostly higher at year end, but the rest of this week is not something I want to speculate on at present. I unloaded all but partial positions on MR and GENZ following the announcement. I sold all of remaining JASO, TNH, SLT, GILD and half of my MR. Fortunately I was quite light coming into the day, banking some very nice gains at now higher levels.

I don't mind paying higher for anything I go back into, I just don't want to fight anything before the 17th or so. I'll take off a little time, dry powder at my side and see how and where things firm up. Tomorrow will be of interest, certainly, but it is after the 17th that the real seasonal strength for this month begins.

100 Snoring Elephants

Fed fund futures indicate only a 42% probability of a 50-bp cut and a 58% chance of 25-bp. The quarter point is favored, but there is no clear indication here; something unusual this close to the announcement.

Either way, I'm expecting additionally to see a half-point cut in the discount rate. And given Bernanke's strong language from his last public appearance, coincident with the Fed recently and finally getting on the same page/agenda, the corresponding statement today should clearly indicate further accommodative posture going forward.

Then the market will react how the market wants to react. Amazing, huh?

I'm lying under a coconut tree, figuring only a real shake-up is going to wake me. Sleeping dogs are better left alone and sleeping under a coconut tree is only dangerous when things sway aggressively - so I figure I've got several hours to basically check-out, forget the daily stresses of fighting tape for a living, dream a little dream, etc.

First though, I'll go out on a coconut limb and tell it like I (expect to) see it: nothing is developing now in this market, in and of itself, to kill the generally favorable trend for stocks. Even if that trend is not going to last into 2008, a set-back here will be short-lived as far as this calendar-month goes.

The Fed follows the market and that interest rate market has long indicated rates well below current levels of the Fed. The market had the opportunity to break in November, it couldn't do more than bend and then we put in a bottom. This remains the 3rd and best year (historically) in the presidential cycle and the month remains December. We can entertain more provocative ideas in '08, but for now it is just a matter of when to press the issue on the long-side.

I'm long, but very light compared to recent days. I don't expect a serious sell-off, but a pullback stemming from this juncture is not at all out of the question; we'll see.

Also, I don't really care - I'm a fair weather fan. Perhaps this is the greatest short-side entry of the ages. I'm willing to be wrong.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Bitter Sweet Caramel Kvetch

The portfolio surged again today and I took the occasion to reduce further; selling the strength in these names ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. The money has been easy and while it might remain easy right through to the year end, I don't feel like pushing much between now and about the 17th.

If we see a pullback following the Fed, I'll be considering entry points to re-accumulate, but otherwise I would wait for the 17th or so to get aggressive again; we'll see. In any event, I seriously doubt I'll be going short.

I traded out of all of the CSIQ today (23.24 ave.). This is the strongest name I know at the moment which trades more than 1.5M shrs/day; I will be looking to re-enter this when it makes sense (higher or lower, I don't care - just that it makes sense at the time). Got to love this one.

I dumped all the YGE, ANF, LOGI, ONXX, FWLT, HOLX and MICC. This leaves me with a small, tidy portfolio at the moment, with reduced holdings of JASO, GILD, MR, TNH and GENZ. New today - I added an inital tranche of SLT at ave. 27.35.

MR, by the way, is seeing significant volume going up and could potentially show us a real breakout >45; keep an eye on that one and watch the volume as it approaches that level.

This was a huge move in this group, compared to an otherwise reasonable rise in the general market indices the last few days. This tells me that these names are indeed live and they should be reconsidered for further attacks. Leadership plays are making sense for the year end, as expected, following the recent bottom in the market.

At the same time this pekid-volume-breakout syndrome I've been alluding to continues...and continues to bother my gills. Check out the weak-volume breakout list given out here on Friday. I don't think there is a name among them whereby volume has confirmed a legitimate breakout of 3-4 x's normal trading volume - add MCD to the list today.

Most of these names continue to drive higher, to be sure, but the lack of volume suggests there is no real support now at their previous consolidation-highs. So while ISRG and MOS look like they should get support on a pullback to their previous base, that may not be true. Consequently, determining benchmarks and potential risk is a bit difficult. There is not sufficient volume to prove significant new buying interest, which would suggest support at the previous consolidation levels. If selling pressure begins rising, then there is no real support where you would be counting on it.

Another unpleasant and continuing trend - new 52-wk highs in the market remain very small. There is nothing special in the number of new highs in the NYSE and in the Nasdaq we not only have less than 100 new highs today, there are barely more new highs than new 52-wk lows.

Sum it up - outside of the red-hot solar group, the market and the leadership stocks are rising more due to a lack of selling, rather than any serious new buying interest. The market in general is going up mostly because it is no longer being sold-down. This may change as the month progresses, and potentially following the Fed cut(s) tomorrow, but in the meantime it is a little too suspect for me to hold an aggressive position. If buying pressure doesn't begin to increase, it won't be long before selling pressure takes charge instead.

I cried all the way to the bank and I'm pricing Bermuda Triangle hunting packages just to maintain my healthy spirit; but I'll keep it light in the market until the money looks easy again.

Friday, December 07, 2007

Big Sky China

Trimming even more here today. Some more of the ONXX and JASO and I took off half of the MR mid-session. I've let go of roughly 50% of what was a fairly aggressive overall position coming into today. Now I am just typically aggressive. A normal sap-sucker long the market.

There are not many new highs in the Nasdaq or NYSE on this move and the breakouts, as I've been complaining, are too few and with too little volume. The market action is okay otherwise, but it still smells today like a lack-of-sellers more than serious buying pushing us at moment.

Some notable lackluster breakouts this week include: ISRG, FWLT, GME, CMG, MOS, POT, BUCY, LIFC, CRM, MA, VIP, UNP and CI. I can't buy this list until I see better.

[Edit: add AAPL now to that list]

I did buy one breakout today though. I just bot tiny little Chinese Solar CSIQ (ave. 20.73). CSIQ broke-out on major volume on Nov. 14th and is following through above its recent higher-consolidation on strong volume today. This is a tiny-cap and speculative. But for me it is the right group and the right time of the year for such a play (and it is liquid). They just turned profitable this last quarter (reported No. 14th) and they are going to show huge growth the next couple of quarters according to estimates. I'm not exactly early to the party on this one, but at least it is raging. 16 kegs dude.

For Deposit Only

Leadership stocks are singing 45 minutes into the market here today, but I'm taking some off the table as volume on these moves is very strangely absent. I think we have a lack of sellers today more than any real buying.

Anyway, still bullish, but no reason not to take some off so I can reload appropriately later.

Out all FWLT 163.70 (no volume on brkout); Cut ONXX (56.50 and 57.50!); Cut JASO (58.50 and 61.25!); Cut YGE on B-of-AM upgrade (31.12! ave.); Cut new half of HOLX 64.18;

Huge move in some of those names, so I'm not complaining...just draining.

[Cut = trimmed here, FYI - Out = all gone for now]

Still holding ANF, GILD, GENZ, LOGI, MICC, MR, TNH and reduced HOLX, JASO, ONXX and YGE, so it's not like I've gone lawn bowling.

[Edit: Now out of 40% of MR at 40.38 ave. a little more than an hour into session]

Thursday, December 06, 2007

A Parent's Guide to Window Dressing

And the beat goes on.

The market is continuing higher (so far) today, following yesterday's follow-through confirmation. Volume by the end of the day was reasonably strong, which was important. Institutions are accumulating stock now, following the bottom put in last week; not surprising given the calendar (I said it again).

...Seasoned, salad-spinning window dressing for the year-end books. Again, can you imagine being a big institutional investor and having to explain why you didn't buy stocks like AAPL this year? What kind of idiot manager are you? And again, if you're an individual investor and have a big gain in a name like ISRG, do you want to sell this month and create an '07 tax event?

No and No.

Today's volume is pretty mild. We're all bracing for tomorrow's big employment report. Woot!

How big a deal is this report? Personally I'm more interested in what is for lunch tomorrow, however we will end the day tomorrow knowing what to expect from the Fed come Tuesday (even though what is for lunch Tuesday is still more interesting than that). I don't give a rat's kneecap about any of it. How the street digests all these lunches is perhaps meaningful.

I've got more stocks now than an old-school mutual fund manager, so I am going to get barbed pretty good if the market reacts negatively. My only recourse if that develops is to hedge as soon as possible with equivalent dollar amounts of Ultrashort index ETF's. I can't sell 15 names very well, very quickly, so when/if I get caught at a time like this I fire into the hedges and then start unloading my largest equity-name problems. If the portfolio isn't starting to improve, I cut more cancers as I see fit. I sell them all and end up short if I have to. I have no regard for stock humanity. I hate all stocks.

But I won't have to sell (much). I can't guarantee a gang buster rally from here, but I can surmise with confidence we are not about to rip limbs from torsos just now. This market made a reasonable bottom and we'll see whatever amount of strength we will see - going into the year end.

If there is a big move higher on the Fed action I could see banking some profits late Tuesday or early Wednesday. But then I will be looking to be fully loaded again sometime after the 17th (assuming a reasonable market, or else by about the 23rd if not a reasonable mkt). Ultimately, I will sell the lot of them in the latter part of the last trading day, December 31st. We can discuss how and why later. It has more to do with than me just hating all stocks.

The point now is to make as much as possible from the leaders. As far as fresh breakouts, there are a few more (ISRG, for example), but still not with sufficient 3-4 x's normal volume.

Since my longer post of yesterday, I doubled-up on HOLX at 62.00; I daytraded and sold all but a 25% position of MICC; I took profits on QID short (too soon); today I added back my tranche of YGE 29.55, I added another MR tranche, 38.69.

...Whatever, things are going fine. If I get nailed with all this stock, I'll still have had an amazing several months (wouldn't you like to know). I wish I had an app here to just show my current holdings, but I'm spending too much time trading lately and I'm about as good at building that stuff as I am at golf.

oohh, the Prez is talking now - Good trading!

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

One More Today...

Fed Fund futures are still pricing in a 57% chance we'll see a half point cut from the Fed on Tuesday. Bill Gross (the world's largest bond trader) suggested on CNBC today that whether the Fed cuts the FF 50 or 25 bp, they will likely cut the discount rate by 50 bp.

CBOT's latest Summary Table:
December 4: 28% for -25 bps versus 72% for -50 bps.
December 5: 43% for -25 bps versus 57% for -50 bps

And importantly, Wednesday marked the follow-through day in the major indices.
Volume was heavier on both the Nasdaq and NYSE. That marked a follow-through day for the Nasdaq. Last week, a number of the IBD indexes — including the IBD 100 and the Weekly Review 85-85 Index — had already logged follow-through days, confirming that a new uptrend was underway. Today's advance was broad. The number of rising stocks outnumbered decliners by 3-to-1 on the NYSE and more than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq. More...

Quick Note

Negative DNA news intraday knocked down the ONXX position, but ONXX remained higher throughout the day,on low volume, and I continue to hold a full position for now. Earlier I said ONXX doesn't care about financial insurer MBI's knock-down, but the DNA news (whereby FDA has turned down DNA's big breast cancer drug) impacted things, obv. This should be a gift for an ONXX entry, my opinion - look at the difference in those charts.

On the same theme, GENZ is actually rising now. I bot a small position (73.24) there as that name made a new high on the day; Genzyme is seriously fading the woes in DNA; which is still halted at this writing.

Busy, good day here - good trading

Get it Up

Okay, no shock. The uptrend has kicked-in again.

I'm not crazy about the volume so far today, but at least we are running ahead of yesterday's pace (sign of accumulation), breadth out there at the moment is much stronger than the negative breadth seen on the decline, and leadership is acting well.

In other words, the market is rising on greater volume and stronger breadth than what we saw on the few days of decline.

Re the lower than stellar volume (relative to big volume days we've seen in recent times), I suspect the big employment report coming Friday is slowing things up some.

You may have noticed by now I measure advances and declines in the market in terms of internal strength and not in terms of gains/losses. I'm not the guy who will tell you how far something is going up or down. There are enough technical jokers out there with razor-sharp pencils and fresh out of sliderule school who can do that for you. I just try to get the direction right, as much as I can and identify the strongest potential for longs and weaker sorts for shorts.
Anyway, this shouldn't be a brag post. I would be buying a lot more here, but for the volume. I am net-buying today overall though. I'm not thrilled with the breakouts I see, such as in MOS, because the volume is not 3-4 x's normal for the names breaking out. Email me if I'm missing a good, liquid one.

I trimmed 40% of ONXX >55.95, because it ran up quite a bit intraday, but w/ very pekid volume. (I was heavy in that one, now slightly below normal size).

[2nd edit: I just bot that ONXX tranche back, 55.12, on the MBI "capital shortfall" news - who is surprised about MBIA and why should it stop cures of cancer? ;) ]

I trimmed the 2nd tranche of YGE at the 50-day m.a. at 30.30 and hope to be able to hold the rest.

I sold the PWRD (too soon today) at 27.27 in the opening minutes, below the 50-day. It was really a quick swing-trade, but I would consider this name long again if it stays above the 50-day (currently that level is 27.92).

I added longs MR (39.80) and ANF (81.87 ave) today. 40.

Regarding ANF, I can't believe how strong that stock is; it resides in the specialty retail group which has been very poor overall. I'm not sure if playing the leader in that group is the best idea (vs. perhaps playing a COH making up ground), but it is a safer way to play a catch-up move in that group anyway.

Regarding MR, it is yet another Chinese play; this one medical devices, Ultrasound and Vision or something or other.

HOLX is churning big-volume still, continuing to digest the debt offer. They priced it today though, so the direction this moves after this churn is likely to be the new direction for the stock. I will take on a second tranche now if it turns up from here and I will have to blow out the earlier tranche if it resolves to downside instead.

MBI just fell off the turn-up truck and the indices are dropping just now, so I've got to go.
[edit: just shorted ultra-short QID at 38.11 ave. for quick daytrade - the NDX should blow-off this MBI news methinks - dip here looks like a gift, outside of the financials]

Fed Fund futures are backing off the 72% probability of a 50-bp cut for Tuesday now, following the stronger than expected payroll data today. We'll have to look at that number later and then Friday (Employment report due Fri.) will tell the tale (meaning Friday's probability, if definitive, will tell whether we see 50 or 25 bp next week).