Classically Trained, for the Revolution

Friday, November 30, 2007

Bull Throttle

The indices are mixed at this writing, but the underlying action and internals are reasonably firm.

The bull remains afloat.

I continue to hold a smallish, long-only position while awaiting a confirmation follow-through session; but I am not afraid to be accumulating some, since the action remains formidible.

The worst are acting best today, namely homebuilders and financials. That's not surprising, but it was a pretty risky re-entry after the easy money there Wednesday. I missed the gravy train today there; oh well, I'll eat this stick of yak butter instead.

Given the liklihood now we will see a Fed cut of 50-basis points (not 25-bp) come December 11th, and the fact that the market is responding favorably to this reality, I think the environment is reasonably safe on the long side until that date at minimum; a full week from Tuesday. So while I'm not loaded to the hagfish gills long just yet, I am expecting plenty of opportunity to fire large between now and then.

I'm still holding pat bio's GILD and ONXX. Since the last entry I added a first tranche of solar play YGE (ave. 26.76), a slightly larger tranche of LOGI (ave. 34.07) and a dog as well: I went long DBRN (with tight stop) expecting it is poised to vault to its 50-day m.a.; up at the 15.55 area. I know this dog well, as I was short there the last several months; up until November 8th. I'll let it go nearing that level and then I'll leave it alone while it bores me to death for a while.

I'm sharpening my teeth on any piece of driftwood that floats by, trying not to buy too much too fast. Sea monkeys, whale bones and raw, pacific meal worms are a nice distraction. I want a body-fat of 96% before the 11th, just to be healthy and safe.

So while I let the other guys make most of the money for now, I am focusing and scouting new potential breakouts (leading, liquid, aggressive growth names poised to break above 6wk+ bases on 3-4+ x's normal volume).

There are nice bases in in many of these already, but not much in the way of breakouts so far. So while I'd rather load up on a JASO breaking above 62 (or so) on major volume, I'm settling so far for YGE to catch-up to the upper end of its range; a larger percentage move before it would challenge any serious resistence. The LOGI play is a similar formation, only this one really resisted selling-off in the down market. I'm aticipating adding to LOGI as it breaks out above 36.50 on volume, but I had to take a chunk now just because the voices in my forced me to do so...actually, I think this looks quite live, but I can't get over-aggro there until we break new ground on sufficient volume.

That's it for now. I've got more but I've got spearheads to carve...Good eating!

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