Friday, November 30, 2007

Bull Throttle

The indices are mixed at this writing, but the underlying action and internals are reasonably firm.

The bull remains afloat.

I continue to hold a smallish, long-only position while awaiting a confirmation follow-through session; but I am not afraid to be accumulating some, since the action remains formidible.

The worst are acting best today, namely homebuilders and financials. That's not surprising, but it was a pretty risky re-entry after the easy money there Wednesday. I missed the gravy train today there; oh well, I'll eat this stick of yak butter instead.

Given the liklihood now we will see a Fed cut of 50-basis points (not 25-bp) come December 11th, and the fact that the market is responding favorably to this reality, I think the environment is reasonably safe on the long side until that date at minimum; a full week from Tuesday. So while I'm not loaded to the hagfish gills long just yet, I am expecting plenty of opportunity to fire large between now and then.

I'm still holding pat bio's GILD and ONXX. Since the last entry I added a first tranche of solar play YGE (ave. 26.76), a slightly larger tranche of LOGI (ave. 34.07) and a dog as well: I went long DBRN (with tight stop) expecting it is poised to vault to its 50-day m.a.; up at the 15.55 area. I know this dog well, as I was short there the last several months; up until November 8th. I'll let it go nearing that level and then I'll leave it alone while it bores me to death for a while.

I'm sharpening my teeth on any piece of driftwood that floats by, trying not to buy too much too fast. Sea monkeys, whale bones and raw, pacific meal worms are a nice distraction. I want a body-fat of 96% before the 11th, just to be healthy and safe.

So while I let the other guys make most of the money for now, I am focusing and scouting new potential breakouts (leading, liquid, aggressive growth names poised to break above 6wk+ bases on 3-4+ x's normal volume).

There are nice bases in in many of these already, but not much in the way of breakouts so far. So while I'd rather load up on a JASO breaking above 62 (or so) on major volume, I'm settling so far for YGE to catch-up to the upper end of its range; a larger percentage move before it would challenge any serious resistence. The LOGI play is a similar formation, only this one really resisted selling-off in the down market. I'm aticipating adding to LOGI as it breaks out above 36.50 on volume, but I had to take a chunk now just because the voices in my forced me to do so...actually, I think this looks quite live, but I can't get over-aggro there until we break new ground on sufficient volume.

That's it for now. I've got more but I've got spearheads to carve...Good eating!

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