Tuesday, November 27, 2007

In Addition

Nice close today.

Most of the leadership names closed at their highs for the day, and on rising volume. Breadth was still modest on the NYSE, but >2-1 positive on Nasdaq.

I added MICC and an additional dose of GILD, to go with the ISRG and ONXX. These are my long names for the moment, as they are pushing the envelope higher right now. I would like to get AAPL and GOOG back into the mix, but one day does not make a new market trend and those two were relatively sluggish vs. the above heroes; at least today.

I cheated on the MICC. Earlier I mentioned I would buy >112.45, yet I backed into a reasonable size tranche at an average of 110.65 as we pivoted into the last hour of trading. Something about this chart is speaking yearbook volumes right now - we'll see, but I would guess it will be much higher at year end.

My average on the GILD today is now 43.63 for a reasonably heavy position. I was disappointed later to learn that Goldman Sachs had placed GILD on a new best-buy list for defensive plays. I say disappointed because I prefer my stocks are live without any help from analysts, but this chart looks very live at the moment, jacking-up from off of the 50-day m.a. and on strong, rising volume. If this name goes stale, I'll blow it out - but at the moment it looks like GS may have hit a chord.

ISRG and ONXX both closed above Friday's rally-day highs. That is the kind of action you want if you are dipping into the long-side early.

I say early because there is nothing yet which confirms any change in the overall trend. If I were still bearish I would focus instead on names and indices which can't help but make lower-lows on a day like today. At the moment though, these leadership stocks have endured now for too long and it is too late in the year, not to take serious notice.

If you were a money manager, paid to invest in equities, which names on at the end of the year would you like to show investors they have been long in this market? December is rapidly approaching - far and away the best window dressing period of the year. Additionally, if you are JQ Public, would you like to sell your biggest winners in December so that you can get a jump on paying those taxes on the '07 return instead of waiting for '08? These dynamics team-up and assist a further frenzy higher for the year's leading stocks.

We'll talk a lot more about that set-up as the year winds down. We need to determine whether this rally will have a sufficient lifespan first.

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