Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Turduck and Cover

Okay, there's a little more flesh on those short bones today and much of the market is reeling - but still volume is on the light side and the NDX continues to resist selling.

Oil is surging again, another financial shoe has dropped (FRE down >27%), the Fed is forecasting lower growth and new 52-wk lows continue to expand. Good game market, right?

I'm still not very satisfied.

I am actually accumulating a little long here (GoGo, hot-money names for the turducken holiday strength). Yes I am insane, thank you for noticing.

I'm not jumping up-and-down bullish and I remain light in overall exposure so far. But I will add longs aggressively tomorrow if we can begin moving higher; I think we will do just that.

I've taken profits on my remaining QID, and added GOOG and MICC long. I even went short a little SKF above 107 (double short financial ETF), but that should be kept quiet, since it really shows my madness. This too, is a temporary fling.

But I am looking to add more long-side trades tomorrow, assuming we are not still dropping.

Pre-holiday strength begins around late-morning tomorrow and runs through the close of the shortened session on Friday - I expect to be very light again, as far as positions, by Friday's final minutes; possibly net-short again, depending.

Long-side names I am considering for tomorrow are AAPL, ISRG, more MICC, more ONXX, more GOOG, RIMM, FSLR, STP, MA and TKC. I won't play everything here, but that is my Turducken Hit-List so far.

GOOG, AAPL, and RIMM all pivoted nicely off of their 50-day moving averages (MA). I like each of those stocks for a trade, but especially if they can get above their 10-day MA's; that would allow me to trade them heavily, if only for the 1-2 days.

MICC and ISRG are already above their 50-day and 10-day MA's. I played MICC so far, but would add more there and take on ISRG if these show strength tomorrow.

ONXX is well above the 50-day, a potential monster, but it is currently below the 10-day mark and I will add only if it wakes up. Onyxx is the latest, greatest cure-for-cancer play - I'll dump it like the plague if it doesn't kick-up by tomorrow.

FSLR and STP are high-ranked solars in the energy-other group and have maintained their positive relative strength throughout this decline. MA is a leader among financials and I am only considering a brief seasonal-strength trade here. TKC is a high-flying mobile phone play from Turkey and has so far showed no signs of retreat. This one also would be just a trade, trying to take advantage of the hot-money at a time when the market is rising...assuming it is rising.

We'll see what sets up, as you can see I'm really only interested in buying strength here, but if strength is good I will buy heavily.

If we crash instead, then I am as much a fool as anyone out there right now. I'll be bailing out as quickly as I can tell and hopefully snorting back my shorts in that case; but for now...

I'm loaded for Bear.

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