Thursday, November 22, 2007

Turkey Biscotti

Sitting down for Thanksgiving here, but really I'd rather be eating crow claws out of the bag and trading this market instead. I love a market that's flying off the handle and driving higher at the same time...even more than this plate of fried's.

I kept on buying the second half of the day, adding a couple traunches of FSLR (ave. 209.54); So far so good there. Then when the NDX managed to go positive late in the session I cut back a tranche of GOOG above 669, but I am still over-weighted in that name for tomorrow.

Prices backed-off in the last hour and I was forced to unload the Ultrashort SKF short* (ave. 107.76), since the financials were not seeing anything like the life like we saw in the GoGo Complex. I still think that trade could set-up for tomorrow, but no sense having my neck in the fryer going into the session. Sellers maintained control in the overall market throughout the day.

OK, what's going on in the World today while we chop livers and fang glorious? Fortunately, Europe is not in the shitter - in fact England is higher by 1.25% late in their session; Germany and France are up .61% and .74% respectively. Asia was mostly lower again, but nothing overly dramatic.

That is all we need to help ensure a normal post-Thanksgiving day of seasonal grits. Normal action tomorrow would be a quiet, mostly boring affair, with a succinct upward bias.

I'm a tiny concerned that the GoGo portfolio here at the moment may have seen its strong day yesterday (Indeed I was up in all accounts yesterday, although fully long by mid-session). If buying rotates elsewhere tomorrow, such as the hardest hit financials, then my master plan may not work to the fullest unless I can rotate there first; which is difficult since by the time the light turns green most of the day's move may have already taken place.

I will however be looking for a set-up in the financial group, just for the day. If they are out-performing early I will re-short SKF as quickly as I can and if the GoGo's are lagging I will toss mine back to the sea earlier rather than later.
Either way I still envision unloading pretty much everything by the final minutes tomorrow**. I'm getting bullish here and I suspect the leading stocks are going to be in play for most of the remainder of the year and then potentially into a decent January, but aside from these temporary opps I'd prefer to see some confirmation before risking much.

After tomorrow I'll be laying low - maybe for more than a day, we'll see.

* Ultrashort ETF's are double-short their underlying sector or index. Thus shorting the double-short is the equivalent of going double-long (normal stuff, eh?). In the case of the financials, I know of no double-long vehicle, so I short the SKF in this case instead of just getting long the XLF.

** Tomorrow's shortened session closes at 1 pm est.

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