Wednesday, December 05, 2007

50 Basis Point Cut Likely

As of yesterday's close, December Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 72% likelihood of a 50-bp cut for Tuesday's FOMC meeting and a 100% chance of at least 25 bps.

You can track the probability at the CBOT Fed Watch page here. The closer we get to the Tuesday announcement, the more accurate a high-probability in the futures contract will be, historically. So unless the 72% figure begins to drop, continue to expect a half-point cut for Tuesday.

Summary Table, as of December 4: 28% for minus 25-bps versus 72% for minus 50-bps.

No comments: