Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Get it Up

Okay, no shock. The uptrend has kicked-in again.

I'm not crazy about the volume so far today, but at least we are running ahead of yesterday's pace (sign of accumulation), breadth out there at the moment is much stronger than the negative breadth seen on the decline, and leadership is acting well.

In other words, the market is rising on greater volume and stronger breadth than what we saw on the few days of decline.

Re the lower than stellar volume (relative to big volume days we've seen in recent times), I suspect the big employment report coming Friday is slowing things up some.

You may have noticed by now I measure advances and declines in the market in terms of internal strength and not in terms of gains/losses. I'm not the guy who will tell you how far something is going up or down. There are enough technical jokers out there with razor-sharp pencils and fresh out of sliderule school who can do that for you. I just try to get the direction right, as much as I can and identify the strongest potential for longs and weaker sorts for shorts.
Anyway, this shouldn't be a brag post. I would be buying a lot more here, but for the volume. I am net-buying today overall though. I'm not thrilled with the breakouts I see, such as in MOS, because the volume is not 3-4 x's normal for the names breaking out. Email me if I'm missing a good, liquid one.

I trimmed 40% of ONXX >55.95, because it ran up quite a bit intraday, but w/ very pekid volume. (I was heavy in that one, now slightly below normal size).

[2nd edit: I just bot that ONXX tranche back, 55.12, on the MBI "capital shortfall" news - who is surprised about MBIA and why should it stop cures of cancer? ;) ]

I trimmed the 2nd tranche of YGE at the 50-day m.a. at 30.30 and hope to be able to hold the rest.

I sold the PWRD (too soon today) at 27.27 in the opening minutes, below the 50-day. It was really a quick swing-trade, but I would consider this name long again if it stays above the 50-day (currently that level is 27.92).

I added longs MR (39.80) and ANF (81.87 ave) today. 40.

Regarding ANF, I can't believe how strong that stock is; it resides in the specialty retail group which has been very poor overall. I'm not sure if playing the leader in that group is the best idea (vs. perhaps playing a COH making up ground), but it is a safer way to play a catch-up move in that group anyway.

Regarding MR, it is yet another Chinese play; this one medical devices, Ultrasound and Vision or something or other.

HOLX is churning big-volume still, continuing to digest the debt offer. They priced it today though, so the direction this moves after this churn is likely to be the new direction for the stock. I will take on a second tranche now if it turns up from here and I will have to blow out the earlier tranche if it resolves to downside instead.

MBI just fell off the turn-up truck and the indices are dropping just now, so I've got to go.
[edit: just shorted ultra-short QID at 38.11 ave. for quick daytrade - the NDX should blow-off this MBI news methinks - dip here looks like a gift, outside of the financials]

Fed Fund futures are backing off the 72% probability of a 50-bp cut for Tuesday now, following the stronger than expected payroll data today. We'll have to look at that number later and then Friday (Employment report due Fri.) will tell the tale (meaning Friday's probability, if definitive, will tell whether we see 50 or 25 bp next week).

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