Pile Driver Long List

The market has deteriorated again this week and in not too subtle a fashion. And with CSCO earnings and subsequent "challenging" outlook blasting the market lower in the after-market today, it's pretty clear that Thursday's session will be...

...another day the market catches a bid, naturally.

That's just the way this thing is trading. So while it may be too bold to suggest the techs will reverse up, it's not at all too bold to suggest that other areas have a strong chance of seeing their lows in the opening minutes, creating reasonable long-side trading opps.

The bigger picture is cloudy at present (although the bears might scoff at that) but we may witness something defining very soon now. Re-tests of lows in the majors; formidable building of a bottom with higher-lows; confirmation of bears and hellfire with lower-lows; or a crazy combination of both of these is all on the table for the near term.

I don't own any tech and am not really shopping any tonight either. I would require a tech/NDX reversal tomorrow to consider trading that department; worry about that bridge when we cross it.

Highest ranking industry groups in the market presently include Ag-operations/Fertilizer, Metals, various Medical sectors, Steel and US Oil/Gas (Expl/Prod).

Highest climbing industry group rankings in the market presently include various Retail, various Financial, various Transportation and the Homebuilders. It will be important and interesting to see if these newly hot groups can demonstrate further resilience or if they go back into the tank now instead.

I'll be betting on these groups placing lows in the opening hour and I will be running like hell if they cannot catch a bid. Bear markets do not bottom on Fridays (I mentioned this going into the Thursday, Jan 17th session, and like then, I will not be holding longs going into Friday if the market does not firm in some way tomorrow. Closing on the lows tomorrow would really set this up for the bears.

Until then, however, I'll play for the see-saw, penduluminous reversal in the stronger sectors.

Live Long List (for firming market only) for Thursday:


Retail-Apparel:
RL
URBN
COH
NKE
LULU (14.7% short int. managmnt owns 42% of shares)
SMRT (6.5% short int; guided lower on 10th and then Chairman bot >$1m stock following)
DBRN (12.5% shorts; they guided lower on Jan 10th and insiders bot heavy on 17-18th)
CHS (8.7% short int; heavy insider buys)
CBK (13% short int; multiple recent month insider buys, though not heavy)
CACH (8.75% shorts; multiple recent, decent insider buys)
HOTT
ANF
ROST
AEO
CHIC

Retail-Home/Dept/Restaurant:
BBBY
WMT
PFCB (heavy insider buying in November + 37% short int.)

AG/FERTILIZER:
LNN
SYT
TITN
CVI (Management holds 74%)
CZZ
TRA
TNH
DAR
GU
MOS

Finance/REITS:
CBL (reports after the close; continuous recent large insider-buys; 8.7% yield; 7% short int)
HME (decent insider buy Nov07; 15% short int; yield 5.4%; decent relative strength (RS))
CDR (multiple insider buys; 8.5% yield; 8% short int.; ex-divd date 2-6-08)
PPS

Finance-Investment Bankers:
BSC
MER

Banks:
USB
WB
NTRS
JPM

Insurance:
AFSI

Transportation-Trans Svcs:
EXPD
PACR
FDX
CSX
KSU
NSC
BNI
RAIL
(some of these too extended at moment)

Steel:
SID
MTL
STLD
TX

Homebuilders:
NVR (strong relative strength; 28% short int.; Chairman bot >$50M in stock early Nov)
LEN