Thursday, June 05, 2008

Mixed Fish

The action has been rather lively for the leadership stocks this week, even if the overall market has been mixed.

I certainly could have been more aggressive. But I have learned not to get predictive about the market too soon after the Memorial day holiday. The summer has a listless, but tending towards trending action in summer and I'm happier these days to be more patient and sure I am forcing action into the proper direction before becoming too active.

Airline uglies have been in the news quite a lot this week and whether it is perhaps merely short-covering as much any real buying or not, they are rising in the face of all this negative media attention (the pullback in crude oil has obv. been a factor). I am back on guard there - I may step-aside again for now and cover AMR if it closes near today's high. If it stalls again late in the day, I will hold. Either way, my position is not particularly large there.

The rest of my list looks decent at present, however I will not be holding longs TNH, JASO and CSIQ if they show any further relative-weakness this week.

I remain partially hedged for now, keying still on the Financials in that regard. Financial names remain overall-sluggish, especially compared to aggressive-growth leadership stocks. I had plenty of opportunity to take handsome profits on the Financials short, but I feel this is the proper insurance until it is a little more clear the summer action is indeed positive. If I lose all my profit there, it should be coincident to making more than that on the other side.

That would be the plan at least.

Exposure Long (48%): TITN; TNH; CSIQ; TTES; JASO (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (30%): SKF (22.5% of accounts are double-short Financials from 110.05, by being long of SKF); AMR (7.5% of total accounts are short AMR from 7.33).
Cash (22%): % of total accounts.

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