Monday, September 22, 2008

Bull Market in Volatility

There was nothing positive about today's action, as the market internals started soft, never really improved and then ended ugly. Subsequently there was no use for last night's menu of long-side buckshot.

The volatility index (VIX) remains high and we should expect ranges of 200+ Dow-points for the days ahead. Should we revert back to a positive tape (which remains to be seen), then I will be only too happy to attack long from the new long-list.

I missed a decent short-opp today (hanging out for signs of improvement since the volume was too weak for me to quickly paint the action as totally bearish). In the end, the tape was easy to short but I wasted my day sitting on ass hairs.

The Democrats surprised me a little too - After everyone was so colorfully painted into the corner by the emergency meeting Thursday night, I surmised a likelihood Washington would all get in line and just allow the Feds shove this plan down the collective gullet. If virtually none of them were willing to speak out against going to war with Iraq, for fear of political suicide, then this little crisis had a precedent for mouths being shut (so I thought). They're playing politics now instead (although no one is really questioning the deal itself, which might be the best idea, they want to use the occasion to tack-on additional agendas). It's more like normal politics after far.

Whatever, I'm still in the game and the powder here is dry. If the tape is ugly again tomorrow, I might short some indexes, depending. But if we can firm again and the tape is sufficiently positive, I'll shop from last night's hit-list of longs (zeroing-in on areas showing the best group-strength on the day).

Otherwise I'll keep on my ass and act like I don't know what's going on - since I won't!

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