Thursday, September 18, 2008
Party Like It's 1999
A funny thing happened on the way to the woodshed today. The market caught a bid.
Too much too fast? Sure, maybe. But it is not like there aren't a lot of shorts out there at the moment needing to cover. And from the onset of the late day rally there just wasn't enough time and not enough sellers for the shorts to cover (an explosive mixture). Pressure had been building for this (if not a severe breakdown instead) and the combination of relative strength today throughout various industries in the market, coincident with an undeniable panicky mood and rampant expectations of doom out there, gave you the opportunity to get in and buy before the big news event of the day kicked everything into hyperdrive.
In other words, when the USA Today flashes the CRISIS cover with investors tumbling out of the sky and your phone is ringing off the hook with nothing but fear-based inquiries, coincident with firm, decent action on the tape in front of you - well, it's time to get back to basics and buy stocks.
I'll be focusing almost exclusively on longs only now for the time being. I might hedge here and there if I get caught long when a pullback transpires and I acknowledge that some amount of re-test at some point in the next several weeks will likely occur. But I also acknowledge that we've now see the lows for the intermediate time frame and this is what is key.
Again, I don't like to sharpen pencils and measure moves before they happen. I just like to get it right when there is power in a move and keep firing at it as long as it behaves appropriately.
So far so good - this doom and gloom, good for nothing stock market is now going to go higher. Hopefully an over-abundant amount of fear and distrust will prevail for a lengthy spell before the masses start considering coming back into the fray. Assuming the action is favorable, then the longer most of the participants and media-heads question it, the longer I can keep firing aggressively.
That's my biggest wish here - a firm and healthy tape coincident with massive fear, suspicion and doubt. The punch bowl remains full in that case.
Crack that whip!