Sunday, September 28, 2008

Still Long Still Live List

You tell me, can the market really rally here?

...that's what I thought you'd say.

I'm sticking with long-only trades here, except for the occasional hedging. And while the action was a little more mixed last week than I thought it might be, last week's Long List held its own.

For this week I've removed a couple of groups (Oil/Gas Exploration and Energy-Other) and I trimmed and added a few names here and there otherwise. Various Financials groups are leading this market, while Technology and commodity-related industry groups are lagging.

For the next several days I'll be keying on the below Live Long List for days when the tape-action is clearly positive (I don't recommend fighting the bears when the tape is nasty). I've even started holding some of these overnight lately, but in general I am still operating with a quick, though reasonably aggressive trading strategy.

Am I bullish because of the bailout plan? Well, yeah actually - at least until the market can't rally any further. At that point I think the whole thing was just stupid to begin with (something akin to how Japan behaved in the 90's according to Jim Rogers). But none of that matters just now. The market has resumed an overall uptrend at a time when nearly everyone is skeptical of the market's ability to rally. The Feds are willing to throw anything and everything at "this sucker" (President Bush's words) so that it won't go down (don't be surprised to see an intra-meeting rate cut in fed funds this week). As long as they are succeeding, I'll keep my focus long.

Banks Savings/Loan:

JPM
PNC
HCBK
WFC
BAC
USB
BBT (16% short int)
SIVB (13% short int)
DCOM
FNFG
TRST (13% short int)
CFFN
UBNK

Finance Investment Bankers:
SWS
GS
JEF (13% short int)
NITE (12% short int)
TWPG
KBW (15% short int)
SCHW
RJF (17% short int)
ETFC (24% short int)
AMTD

Insurance-Brokers:
MMC
LPHI (extremely thin)

Financial Services Misc:
RMG
CYBS
NDAQ
ECPG

Homebuilders:
MHO (25% short int)
MTH (25% short int)
PHM (12% short int)
TOL (15% short int)
NVR (20% short int)

Machinery-Gen Industrial:
DXPE
FSYS
PNR (10% short int)
GRC

Retail Clothing/Shoe:
BKE (15% short int)
URBN (20% short int)
ROST
HOTT
NWY
DBRN (13% short int)

Apparel - Clothing/Shoe Manufacturing:
WRC (15% short int)
TRLG (daytrade consideration only due to 51% short int)
NKE
SHOO
KSWS (13% short int)

Retail-Restaurants:
PZZA (9.5% short int)
BWLD (daytrade consideration only due to 39% short int)
PNRA (daytrade consideration only due to 32% short int)
CPKI (20% short int)
MCD
CEC (24% short int)

Retail Misc Consumer:
POOL
SBH
CRMT (23% short int)
ZLC (daytrade consideration only due to 49% short int)

Medical Systems:
VAR
BABY

Medical - Biotech/Genetic; Medical/Dental Services:
CELG
PRXL (12% short int)
SQNM
GENZ
VPHM (13% short int)

Medical-Software:
QSII
ATHN (12.5% short int)

Airlines:
AMR (13% short int)

Internet Software:
WBSN
ARBA (12% short int)

Electronic - Component/Connector:
IIVI

Electronic - Military Systems:
AXYS
FLIR

Utility - Power:
HE
EOC

Misc:
SYMC (unusually firm vs. other NDX/tech stocks)
GEF
AZZ (15% short int)
SEAC (11% short int)

1 comment:

chris said...

Hi there,

I tried contacting you a while but never received a response, can you please email me at chris.hamilton @ boomerang.com.au so we can discuss my proposal?

Thanks