Monday, March 17, 2008

Quick Note

Just a quick note since today is looking potentially dramatic.

I may or may not step in long today, but frankly this so far doesn't look like a buy-the-open set-up to me. We may reverse higher, but we could easily close on the lows today. Seeing the news and futures last night I assumed we would gap-down quite a bit more than how we stand at the moment. I don't see enough of a flush as far as this open to buy from the onset.

I also don't see initiating short on this open either. Selling the dips may finally work today, but that has not been the case with the action of this market to date.

Don't Fight the Fed + Don't Fight the Tape = Don't Trade (and that is where I am at)

I think RIMM is a good, leading stock to key on here. As soon as that one stops making lower lows on the day and turns up, the NDX should likely follow; the rest of the market then as well. Again, this may not be for today.

I've actually been on the sidelines since the week before last when the market started glowing ugly again. I missed the 1-day-wonder rally last week (Tuesday), but it did not impress.

At this point a serious flush-reversal on major volume is what I need. I'm a spectator still for now.

We needed a major bank failure, or some dramatic news, to mark a low. So this much is good (from a trader's perspective at least, certainly not for everyone involved). However, 30 or 50 Nasdaq points lower at the open is not the kind of gap that I want to step in on. If the futures we're down 100+ Naz points, I would be scaling in immediately.

Time-wise however, I think we're finally close to a shift in direction; something more than a short bounce higher.

Best luck.