Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Side Saddle

I've been using the seasonal strength today to cut exposure; I let go the (QID) hedge as things started to stabilize last week.

My strategy in the near term is to hang-out mostly in cash while the market starts to show its summer colors. I'm going to guess that the action will remain mostly positive in the short run, however I'm not going to play very hard until this (or something weaker) is confirmed.

Summer has a way of trending, one way or another, in its lackluster, low-volume fashion. Let's see how things take shape this week (at least) before committing one way or another.

Current portfolio (by size, all longs): TITN, CRZO, COH, JASO, TTES

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Goggles On

To the point, yesterday's action was unsettling and has put me on the defensive, but here is how I view the very short term...

Volume was rising and distributive, but not major; market breadth was obv. negative, but far from dramatic; holiday seasonal strength is in the cards for Friday and Tuesday.

I'm hedged at the moment, but I will dart out of the hedge today as soon as I see decent internals and action (I will hold onto the hedge if I do not). At that point I'll look to lighten much further on strength tomorrow and Tuesday and ultimately play a bit of the waiting game from there.

It still may be too soon to start getting net-short here. Then again, perhaps it is not. I'm not pretending to know, I will just attempt to respond.

Good trading.

[Edit: 20 minutes into the session I have added CSIQ long (below 41), which has pulled back today to the 10-day m.a.; I remain hedged with the QID...for now]

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Quick Note

The market's pullback has accelerated today and on rising volume (distributive).

I've hedged my position with a large QID position (NDX double-short).

I also sold out of a few names, including LNN, BYI and SOHU (so far)

Weather Permitting

There is nothing yet alarming about the retrace in the market the last few sessions and so I have been reloading the wagon on the pullback.

In addition to early trades yesterday, I also added TNH and BYI later in the morning session. The former, TNH has been consolidating for several months and is poised for something (potentially) explosive. The latter, BYI is simply a quick trade (1-3 day swing), pulling back now with the market on the heels of last week's positive earnings report.

I'll fire further shots long today, assuming the action remains formidable. But I will hedge my position rather quickly if we begin something more urgent (in this case I will unload the weaker-acting positions as well, or the whole boat should it really get nasty; doubtful). The hedge, if necessary, will be a quick and large double-short index trade, more than likely; whichever index is weakest on the day, or whichever best mirrors my current (aggressive-growth) positions; depending.

More likely though, I won't need any hedge at this juncture, just a little patience as we approach the holiday seasonal strength. Selling is for Friday and/or Tuesday, if I can help it.

...Easy game

Current portfolio (by size, all longs): TITN, EXPD, LNN, CRZO, COH, SOHU, TNH, JASO, BYI, MATK, TTES

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Quick Note

Bot LNN, SOHU and JASO today in the first hour of trading.

Current portfolio (by size, all longs): TITN, EXPD, LNN, CRZO, COH, SOHU, JASO, MATK, TTES

Night of the Hunter

Stories aside, the market is set for a reasonably lower open today, on the heels of yesterday's negative reversal; perhaps setting up set up some long-side entry opportunities.

Congress is meeting today to show they care how much you spend on energy. And the various Oil and Gas groups still dominate the list of highest ranked industry-groups in the market. This is a definite area to keep an eye on today should profit-taking erupt.

Solar stocks reversed hard yesterday, but they remain extended on the upside. I will likely take fresh shots long into CSIQ and JASO if they can correct >5%. That group too remains very-highly ranked.

The Love/Hate tattoos on each of my hands illustrate the story of the market today. Alternative and renewable energy is highly ranked, leading the market; sharing the spotlight with the oil uglies, which litter the market leader-board. These fingers are hardly warin' and a tuggin' as far as today's market is concerned, as Left-hand Hate is nowhere yet near down for the count.

There's still money to be made on both sides.

Current portfolio (by size, all longs): TITN, EXPD, CRZO, COH, MATK, TTES [no trades here yesterday]

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Back in Black

OK, just to get to the point of where I have been and why so silent, I can say this much...

I have been trading very actively, still focused almost entirely on the long side, adjusting exposure depending on the action...but I have been unable (unwilling more like it) to share my specific ideas and general outlook even. The reasons are personal to my business and to one client in particular, but I'm not going to get into that here. From this point forward, everyone gets my take that wants it, whether or not I am compensated.

If I throw out an opinion and you blow yourself up with it, that's your problem. If I can be a part of you making sick gains and you profit nicely - well, that's your problem as well.

This remains a great market for trading and ultimately...ultimately we are setting up for the (next, best) short-side opportunity of a lifetime.


Current portfolio (by size, all longs): TITN, EXPD, CRZO, COH, MATK, TTES

Other long-side names I am trading in and out of regularly these days: RIMM, LNN, CSIQ, BUCY, JASO, MEA, HERO, REXX, SOHU and a couple of Airline shorts, JBLU more than most.

A newer Solar name that I have traded, but not nearly enough , is SOL. That group is back on track - and then some.