Friday, June 13, 2008

Outsider Trading

Back to nature indeed.

I did end up blowing out the CSIQ and JASO longs the other day, on top of the already mentioned long-side reductions. And yesterday I stepped out of the TITN position on the up open (ave. 28.12).

As it turns out, I would have done better by holding everything, since the Financials short and the AMR both continue to implode more than any longs longs I've been playing.

Bah! No concerns here. I'm faring just fine on the sidelines. The dawn light begins about 3:30 in the morning here, in these longest days of June. Presently I'm fishing old boots and straight jackets out of the River Thames before boarding the New Hearts of Darkness, Inc. Voyage to the Unfelt Paradise; a cruise-tour of summer exploitation on anything animal and environment. I've reserved the Mustelidae suite, which allows the hunter to blast anything that moves, right from the comforts of his own cabin window. In addition we'll be provided strip-mining equipment so we can pan entire hillsides for gold, copper and various exotic rodentia.

I do try to dry out somewhere around this time every year, if the market will allow it. It's usually best in July, but the mixed, somewhat trendless action at the moment is signalling the time is right. The broad market uptrend we began in March has clearly stalled, but a there is nothing clear as far as downtrend yet. I will keep one eye open, in case the Financials break to dramatic lower-lows (I still assume the Financials will lead the charge if there is any significant downside to be seen here), but I will roost for a week or two if nothing much develops.

In the meantime I may or may not report from my Paradise Incorporated, but you can assume it will be ravaging. Blood lust is nearly insatiable when a trader cannot fire shots at the market instead.

Exposure Long (10.25%): TTES; TNH (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (0%)
Cash (89.75%): % of total accounts.

Monday, June 09, 2008

Reductive

I am indeed cutting back exposure today - and preparing to paddle-out for more fun and healthy (ha!) activity in the near term.

The game-plan here was/is to capture profits and get back to nature while the current market defines itself. There is no terrific reason to be very aggressive in an early-summer market which is showing mixed, divergent action. I'm taking profits and hunting for an exotic vacation package instead).

-Sold SKF early at 122.90
-Covered AMR at 7.075 ave.
-Reduced TNH by 50% at 150.25
-Trimmed TITN slightly at 25.50

CSIQ and JASO are stabilizing after some early weakness, but I will let those go today if they cannot continue to improve. I will sell them anyway if the market gets much uglier (now that I have no hedge).

I will try to hold onto the TITN, TTES and remaining TNH near-term and hopefully longer, but again I am going to keep a short leash on everything until a clearer trend in the market develops.

Exposure Long (39.5%): TITN; CSIQ; TNH; TTES; JASO (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (now 0%)
Cash (60.5%): % of total accounts.

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Stage Right

Since the previous post here Thursday morning, oil has climbed $16/barrel in the two days (a new record high), the dollar was slammed and the Friday employment report has the US economy back on the rack...

Jack

Friday was no picnic for the longs, but at the same time it was not exactly a disaster. The Nasdaq and growth/leadership continue to out-perform the Dow and S&P sorts. The Nasdaq actually traded (slightly) higher volume rallying Thursday than on the drubbing Friday and also closed above Wednesday's low.

The Dow, S&P 500, and broader NYSE all closed at multi-week lows (not so rosy there).

The point? We're seeing topsey-turvey, herky and jerky - nothing very clear in terms of direction. When leadership/growth stocks are out-performing (and summer is waxing) it is not the greatest environment to get whole-hog short. At the same time, when the Dow and S&P are in a defined trend downward, it is not the best time to load up load on growth or the market in general.

I'm sticking with the keep-it-safe and simple approach for now and shopping fresh travel plans to deserted districts in order to basically wait this one out. If it were later in summer, I would be net-short or possibly fully short by this action. Instead I'm going to scale further out and hit the low-road to Elba, or somewhere similar.

No changes in my position here since Thursday. My airline short was saved by the blow-up in crude and my hefty SKF (double Financials short) position more than compensated for the set-back in the group of longs (which more than held their own on Friday).

On Monday, if the market is not stabilizing, I will be moving out of much of this (covering the Financials and AMR on early weakness and then dumping the longs if the market is not reversing/stabilizing - this allows me a decent swing-shot higher with long positions un-hedged if we do stabilize and only an hour or two of un-hedged long exposure if we do not).

Exposure Long (49%): TITN; TNH; CSIQ; TTES; JASO (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (31.5%): SKF (24.5% of accounts are double-short Financials from 110.05, by being long of SKF); AMR (7% of total accounts are short AMR from 7.33).
Cash (19.5%): % of total accounts.

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Mixed Fish

The action has been rather lively for the leadership stocks this week, even if the overall market has been mixed.

I certainly could have been more aggressive. But I have learned not to get predictive about the market too soon after the Memorial day holiday. The summer has a listless, but tending towards trending action in summer and I'm happier these days to be more patient and sure I am forcing action into the proper direction before becoming too active.

Airline uglies have been in the news quite a lot this week and whether it is perhaps merely short-covering as much any real buying or not, they are rising in the face of all this negative media attention (the pullback in crude oil has obv. been a factor). I am back on guard there - I may step-aside again for now and cover AMR if it closes near today's high. If it stalls again late in the day, I will hold. Either way, my position is not particularly large there.

The rest of my list looks decent at present, however I will not be holding longs TNH, JASO and CSIQ if they show any further relative-weakness this week.

I remain partially hedged for now, keying still on the Financials in that regard. Financial names remain overall-sluggish, especially compared to aggressive-growth leadership stocks. I had plenty of opportunity to take handsome profits on the Financials short, but I feel this is the proper insurance until it is a little more clear the summer action is indeed positive. If I lose all my profit there, it should be coincident to making more than that on the other side.

That would be the plan at least.

Exposure Long (48%): TITN; TNH; CSIQ; TTES; JASO (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (30%): SKF (22.5% of accounts are double-short Financials from 110.05, by being long of SKF); AMR (7.5% of total accounts are short AMR from 7.33).
Cash (22%): % of total accounts.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Quick Note

I essentially held tight yesterday, although I added TNH (149.10) long into the mix and increased TITN (24.53) slightly.

Exposure Long (49%): TITN; TNH; CSIQ; JASO; TTES (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (29%): SKF (23% of accounts are double-short Financials at 110.05, by being long of SKF); AMR (6% of total accounts are short AMR at 7.33).
Cash (22%): % of total accounts.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Glimpse


Exposure Long (29%): TITN; CSIQ; JASO; TTES (listed according to size)
Exposure Short (29%): SKF (22% of accountsare double-short Financials at 110.05, by being long of SKF); AMR (7% of total accounts are short AMR at 7.33).
Cash (42%): % of total accounts.