Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Swing Song...Long


Here is a quick, unedited update since my market chops are watering...

I have (not) returned!

I'm remain deep up-river, presently on a distant and humid muddy shore, swatting ham-sized insects while shaving leeches with the same machete. However, I am buying stock (longs) in a big way today; even if just for a (swing) trade.

The market it at a key juncture, more or less, and if it is to hold, we have right now a reasonable and tradable rally into the holiday seasonal strength (which begins late tomorrow) and an easy exit then on Monday; if not later (the US markets are closed Friday).

Several factors give me reasons to buy right here and now:
-The NDX stocks are acting very strong relative to the other indices.
-The Advance/decline levels today are not extreme; especially compared to the flush-emotion this past hour.
-The time of day for today's emotional flush is bullish (assuming we do not blow through those levels late in the session.
-Several leadership stocks are at key buy-entries right now.
-Holiday seasonal strength begins the second half of tomorrow and extends into early Monday.
-The Dow is the only major index so far to have made new lows on this pullback and the NASDAQ and NDX remain well-higher, relatively (The S&P 500, however, is close).

Today I have bot QLD (double-long NDX, ave. 72.05); TITN (27.01); CSIQ (Ave. 37.55); DVN (Ave. 121.16); HERO (37.65); RIMM (for trade only, reversing up from near the 200-day, ave. 119.11); TNH (ave. 129.48). I had bought MOS the other day at 141.45.

I sold TTES, which is now extended, but I will look to trade back in on a pullback or after some consolidation.

If I am wrong, I will add crow to my plate tonight, as I chop-back positions and look for another potential entry tomorrow. If I am altogether wrong, I will likely turn and get short this market by Monday.

[Edit: The market is indeed catching a bid now. I further added double-long Financial ETF UYG at 19.80 and I traded into an additional solar, JASO. UYG is a brief 1-3 day trade, and JASO would be as well, although if I see a real turn there I may hold longer. The reason for the UYG trade is that early in a positive turnaround quite often the most beaten-down sector has the biggest percentage gain the following day. I will sell any emotional rally by tomorrow's close as far as UYG is concerned; and I will unload if it stalls first instead. I am not ambitious yet for any significant trend change in the Financials.]