Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Hope Drubs Internal (this set could get bloody)

Fortunately I didn't hit the send button yet on that Bora Bora Bloodlust (spear-pooning expedition package). I'm right back trading the short side today.

While I'm no Elliott-waverunner, I know about psychology. Give somebody in peril a hope of surviving after-all but then re-drub them the next day instead, and the plate is set for an accelerated downside in hopeful feelings. I'm not predicting new lows here on the SPX (although I have considered that uber-likely at some point), but with the return to downward momentum and the psychology mentioned, we could see a much more dramatic wave lower - here and now (so far we're well on our way as the price-action is no slouch and while there are some names jumping on the tape, the internals are overall assuredly negative; at this writing breadth is nearly 4-1 negative on the Nasdaq and NYSE).

I moved into TWM late in the pre-mkt session and then hot-dogged out and back-in twice (sign-up for my Twit-feed to get this insanity live >>>). The third entry is of a larger degree and thus I'm back short and looking to bleed that higher (unless the mkt steadies itself).

This just in - Geithner announcing clarification on housing solution plan and Financials are suddenly roaring. I added two tranches long of Financial's double-short SKF

Locked-and loaded here, but will use tight stops on the SKF and TWM (it's not out of the question that the treasury announcement today changes everything (ha!).

It's also not out of the question that these announcements will start having less (goose-up) impact - watch and learn.

Position: currently 2.7-to-1 net-short...

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SKF-long (Fncl's Dbl-short), AEM, SGY
(Note: above long inverse-ETF's TWM and SKF represent being dbl-short those indices)

Currenty long (according to size): ATHN, MYGN, SEPR

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