Friday, February 27, 2009

Quick note on the day

I'm going to be pretty busy perhaps, but I will convey the trades via the Tweed >>> on right.

Unless we gap down and rally (in which case I will pull back some of this short line), then I am looking at it this way:

- >5-1 negative breadth after 1 hour gives me a green light to short as much as I can.
- >4-1 negative breadth going into final 90 minutes keeps that light green.
- Bear markets do not bottom on Friday's, so unless this firms-up quickly (SPX re-captures 741 level early-on), then I expect to hold a large short position into the wkend.
- Intraday, I will be keying on the weakest indices, which so far look to be Financials.
- I'm looking to short back my addt'l 1/3 AEM up at the 200-day m.a. (following this up-grade and the early bid for gold stocks). I am trying to get a new tranche short again on GDX at that 200-day also. Gold stocks may keep firm if the market is breaking down again, but they may end up selling-off instead, confusing the many bulls.
-Again, the key is whether or not the mkt catches a bid after the gap lower and then just how extreme the internals become if not. The more extreme, the more likely we close near the lows of the session. Good luck out there.

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