Sunday, February 15, 2009

Short Order Cook-List (for killing the downside)



Let's face it, not everything is perfect on the tape these days. I'm not fully short (currently 2.5-1 net-short), but now that the major indices are setting up on the charts and look likely to test the lows again, then it is time once more to roll out the barrels of dry powder, line-up the weaker ducks and fire fresh (where they can still be borrowed, that is).

This weekend's fare focuses entirely on Financial's and only where there is still some meat on the bones. I'm in a few of these already (current positions below), but this is my updated hit-list for melting iceberg market caps.

Share the Dwealth...

Finance-REIT's (your income-lovers, widows and orphans horror show):
VNO (9% yield; 10% short-interest; reports 24Feb)
SPG (9.5% yld; 8% shorts; 483% debt)
BXP (7% yld; 12% shorts)
AIV (41%! yld; 15% shorts; 430% debt)
AVB (8% yld; 18% shorts)
MAC (24% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=18Feb; 501% debt; 32% shorts)
CBL (55%! yld; 25% shorts; 638% debt)
PPS 7% yld, est. ex-divd=27Mar; 12% shorts)
HME (9% yld; 21% shorts; 357% debt; reports 19Feb, after-mkt)
CPT (12.6% yld; 8% shorts)
UDR (14% yld; 8% shorts 321% debt)
HR (10% yld; caution, est. ex-divd=18Feb; 12% shorts; reports 23Feb, aftermkt)
HST (5% yld; 8% shorts; reports 18Feb, b4 open)
WRI (15% yld; 11% shorts)
PLD (13% yld12% shorts)
SLG (21% yld; 20% shorts)
CUZ (12% yld; 15% shorts)
KIM (17% yld; 11% shorts)
CLP (18% yld; 9% shorts)
KRC (11% yld; 9% shorts)
TCO (9% yld; 11% shorts)
EQR (9% yld; 6% short)
EPR (17% yld; 15% shorts; reports 23Feb, aftrmkt)
ESS (7.5% yld; 22% shorts)

BANKS/SNL's (cardboard boxes left in the dumpster still):
PNC (9%yld; 2.5% shorts)
BBT (12% y;d; 9% shorts)
SIVB (no yld; 15% shorts)
MI (30% yld; 7% shorts)
UBS (14% yld; minimal shorts)
BCS (45% yld!, due ?; minimal shorts)
AF (7% yld; rcnt divd decr.; 5% shorts; extended on downside, short couter-bounce)
NYB (9% yld; 8% shorts)
COF (12% yld; 10% shorts)
DFS (3.4% yld; 2% shorts)
RF (12% yld; 5% shorts; recent large insider buy)
CMA (1.3% yld; recent divd decrease; 9% shorts)
STI (5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=26Feb; 4% shorts; recent large insider buys)
SNV (7% yld; 9% shorts; recent insider buys)

INSURANCE (insurance/exosurance - insure this!):
PFG (4% yld; 4% shorts)
MFC (5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=23Feb; minimal shorts)
AFL (5.5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=13Feb; 4.5% shorts)
CNO (no yld; 3% shorts)
AXA (10% yld; eps due ?; minimal shorts)
TMK (2% yld; 7.5% shorts)

Currently Short (according to size): SRS-long (Real Estate Ultrashort), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short), SKF-long (Financials Ultrashort), PNC, VNO, BBT (Note, I am currently long of inverse-ETF's SRS, SDS and SKF...but this represents being short the respective indices)
Currenty long (according to size): AVAV, FSLR, ATHN


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