Thursday, February 26, 2009

Still Wounded Financials (pup seals scurrying on the beach)


Here is the updated watch and kill list for the Financial's. Clearly, names relating to commercial real estate are the majority, which means SRS may be better than SKF (near term) as a trading vehicle for shorting the groups...

Finance-REIT's (still the longest list of Financial horrors):
VNO (9% yield; 10% short-interest; reported 24Feb)
SPG (9.5% yld; 8% shorts; 483% debt)
KIM (17% yld; 11% shorts)
HST (5% yld; 8% shorts; reported 18Feb)
BXP (7% yld; 12% shorts)
AIV (41%! yld; 15% shorts; 430% debt)
AVB (8% yld; 18% shorts)
MAC (24% yld; caution; 501% debt; 32% shorts)
CBL (55%! yld; 25% shorts; 638% debt)
PPS 7% yld, est. ex-divd=27Mar; 12% shorts)
HME (9% yld; 21% shorts; 357% debt; reported 19Feb, after-mkt)
CPT (12.6% yld; 8% shorts)
UDR (14% yld; 8% shorts 321% debt)
HR (10% yld; 12% shorts; reported 23Feb, aftermkt)
WRI (15% yld; 11% shorts)
CUZ (12% yld; 15% shorts)
KRC (11% yld; 9% shorts)
EQR (9% yld; 6% short)
EPR (17% yld; 15% shorts; reported 23Feb, aftrmkt)


BANKS/SNL's (don't take away that dumpster just yet):
BMO
BBT (12% y;d; 9% shorts)
SIVB (no yld; 15% shorts)
MI (30% yld; 7% shorts)
UBS (14% yld; minimal shorts)
AF (7% yld; rcnt divd decr.; 5% shorts)
NYB (9% yld; 8% shorts)
COF (12% yld; 10% shorts)
DFS (3.4% yld; 2% shorts)
RF (12% yld; 5% shorts; recent large insider buy)
CMA (1.3% yld; recent divd decrease; 9% shorts)
SNV (7% yld; 9% shorts; recent insider buys)
BAC
C

INSURANCE (insurance/exosurance - insure this!):
PFG (4% yld; 4% shorts)
MFC (5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=23Feb; minimal shorts)
AFL (5.5% yld; caution, est. ex-divd date=13Feb; 4.5% shorts)
CNO (no yld; 3% shorts)
AXA (10% yld; eps due ?; minimal shorts)
TMK (2% yld; 7.5% shorts)

Commercial Loans (new deathwatch):
NNI
SLM

Also Ran (in its own little category, still limping on the beach):
GE

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