Friday, February 20, 2009

Tapes of Wrath

We're seeing a reasonable flush today and I'm just trying to feign boredom until the final 90 minutes; when I get in this car for a real drive.

I scaled into some long shares early today, but out-did that with a larger SDS position. I've since reduced the SDS at handsome heights, but I am looking to push even harder there in the final 90 minutes.

This is why:

1. Breadth is totally severe today on NYSE; currently 10-1 negative this deep into the session.
2. Bear markets do not bottom on Fridays
3. Old School, when Friday option-expiration went badly - the following Monday is worse.

I don't see why we shouldn't close on or near the lows today and I don't expect to be any less than 2-1 net short until Monday (when I will scale-out to market neutral or net-long, depending).

Unless something falls from the sky and changes my mind, I'll be 4 or 5-1 net-short in the final hour today, but then back to ~2-1 by the close; via heavy SDS, SKF and/or TWM inverse double-short trades.

I see some shorts reducing out there today - Myself, I'm playing chicken with the closing bell.

Sign up for my Twitter on the right to get these trades delivered live <<< Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short), XEC, PNC, STRA, AEM, BBT, VNO, SIVB, HST, SGY
(Note, I am currently long inverse-ETF SDS, which represents being dbl-short the SP500)
Currenty long (according to size): AVAV (increased; bench new on 50-day), ATHN, CEPH (new), LOPE (new)

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