Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Bull Blitz

Breadth is hugely positive 35 minutes into the session. It is no longer a question today of whether this will hold, but instead how high will we be by the close.

My accounts are higher by >2% at the moment, helped by the fact that ~40% of my short position is in gold miners, which are getting hurt so far; also the UWM premkt purchase is padding things, to say the least. UWM is 2x's the Russell 2000, which is leading the major indices so far on the day.

I will likely be day-trading the strongest index more aggressively long today, but not just yet. If nothing changes, I'll be keying on the Russell (and/or Financials, depending).

One note, a huge up-thrust session, led by the weakest groups (ala Financials) is apt to be a 1-day-wonder, bear market-type of day. The amount of rise may end up very dramatic, but the liklihood of then following through significantly higher would be small. In other words, bear markets (or broken stocks for that matter) have a tendency to rally all in one day and/if they do, it generally does not last; we'll see.

Total Position: currently 1.07-to-1 net short, (62% invested)
(note: the shorts on AEM and GDX are skewing my true mkt exposure; as long as they are falling in an up-mkt)

Currently long (according to size): WNR, UWM, SNDA, HMSY, ARST, IOC, PMCS

Currently Short (according to size): AAPL, BWA, GDX , AEM, ALV

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