Saturday, March 07, 2009

Killer Rabbit Punch List (screen for eligible longs)


All portraits of doom aside, I must say I was surprised at the quality of the charts that turned up on my long-screen this weekend. While successful breakouts remain few and far between (this week has some at least) there are quite a number of poised lovelies.

If I didn't know better and you showed me this group, I'd say you had a decent market. Call it one more reason I don't need no stinking knowing. These charts may know something I don't.

But hey, you guys love scenarios and logic (I prefer nurses and nuns), so I will convey the current outlook with 3 varieties of likely dope:

Either:
1.) We gap down and/or penetrate lows (in which case the below list returns to the back pocket for the time being while the village is raided again (the point being that lower-lows in the mkt equals negative expectation-value for this list).
2.) We're about to see a violent retracement rally, in which case you'll do better to be short SKF or FAZ (if you can borrow them) - and/or otherwise focus on a quick upside killthrill w/ fast-guy FAS long or getting short SDS or something; BUT if we rally with 5-10% thrust inside of one day, I can almost assure you the rally will end with that session (or perhaps with an up-open the beginning of the next, but don't count on anything the next day you greedy bastards).
3.) We're on the brink of an intermediate-term (IT) rally and the below list now becomes the shit...just be sure to read the disclaimer about me being a dentist.


In the case of door #3, I present to you my updated screen for killing on the upside. Aside from the honorable mentions at the bottom, every name on this screen hails from a highly-ranked (or rapidly rising) industry group, in terms of relative strength + each is currently at or above its 50-day moving average + each is at new highs in relative-strength (RS vs. the SP500); the new high in RS is the most significant factor (imo), but these have all three (these names go to eleven).

Oh, Don't buy anything because of me - this is information only and I already admitted above that I don't know anything. I could pull your teeth out with pliers and you'd stop calling me a dentist, right? Get a goddamned real job already. Oh wait...

Killer Rabbit Punch List for potential IT retracement rally:
(Order is ranked by group relative strength)

Medical-Genetics:
MYGN
LIFE

Retail-Auto/Parts:
ORLY
AZO
AAP
CPRT

Retail-Discount:
BIG
FDO
DLTR (back again)

Software-Medical:
SXCI (thin)

Software-Security:
ARST (very thin but major-vol breakout)
CHKP
SNWL
MVSN

Beverages-Softdrinks:
HANS (old Hans, believe it or not)

Medical-Generic Drugs:
TEVA
MYL

Tech-Services:
NCIT (very thin; need >25.59) [Edit, should be honorable mention only; below 50-day]
TYL

Commercial Svcs-Healthcare:
HMSY

Oil/Gas-Refining:
WNR
IOC
UGP
NRGP [Edit: too thin]

Semi's-Manufacturing (suddenly, this group is exploding in RS):
ALTR
SWKS
NETL
PMCS
HITT (thin)
SIGM
NSM
TSM
CY (hard to believe)
SMTC
XLNX
MRVL
NVDA
SPIL
VLTR
CREE
BRCM

Software-Enterprise:
BMC

Retail-Leisure:
NFLX

Internet-Content:
SNDA
NTES

Honorable Mentions:
SYT
EPIQ (thin)
STAR
TNDM (thin)
NTCT (>11.48)
MNRO (very thin)
ROST
ARO


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