Thursday, April 30, 2009

Beat the Dull Drums


I don't have much to say yet still. We're weakening now, perhaps reversing down. But multiple heads on CNBC are presently throbbing up and down over the idea we are going to pullback now! Everyone with a blog is pointing at the same. Some calling for a healthy pullback, others calling for doom. Either way it's a crowded space, though action is not yet enticingly terrible.

At this writing the NDX and Russell-2k are notably out-performing more-lagging indices like the Dow and SPX; breadth is still reasonably firm; and several leadership industry groups are higher by 3% and more still on the session. While it is never out of the question, that is not how a blood-bath reversal typically ensues.

Sorry, I'm getting bored again. I'm back to reducing exposure and looking to yank something out of deep water again (instead of trading in the mud). If this turns out to be a great trade short, I'll hope to be involved. At the moment I don't see it. This weekend I'll do extensive screens of rapidly declining industry groups (in terms of relative strength) and begin then a new shopping list of eligible individual shorts. Until then I'm treading water and waiting for better.

CYOU has been a terrific trading stock and (thus far) remains a powerful leader. I'll keep pushing on this beast long (in-and-out and out-and-in) and convey the moves on Twitter.

I was stopped early on STRA short, following earnings. A failure below the 200-day (now 201.46) would make this interesting again and reignite a rather mammoth HS pattern on the weekly chart. This is a recently leading industry group that has fallen-off dramatically in terms of relative strength; a typical green-light for shorting.

TSYS reports after the close today. I may or may not hold into that event (possible I will lose faith before the close, depending on the name and the general market).

If we can get the NDX to reverse lower today, I expect I will step to the sidelines altogether, or possibly re-position short (via another go with SDS or possibly SRS, depending). Until then, the blood in the water is so far faint and at the same time that the clarion calls for pulling back are increasingly loud.

A recipe for z's.

Total Position: all long; only 13% invested

Currently Long (according to size): SNDA (5.2%), CYOU (4.1%), TSYS (4.2%)

No comments: