Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Re-Re-Shift (grinding neutral at moment)

Already half-way in today and I don't have a great deal to say. There was measurable damage to the uptrend yesterday, but internals today are positive enough to suggest we won't see much in the way downside drama; for the moment at least.

I was nicely positioned coming in (having moved to market-neutral late in the day and into the after-mkt session yesterday), but I'm taking a couple of body shots; with NFLX and MYGN longs down in an up-tape.

Today I've added a couple of individual shorts as well as increasing longs. I'm trying to keep more or less market neutral and allow direction to take greater hold before committing again to one side. I'm not crazy about the action of leadership names today. More of this under-performance tomorrow would impress me enough to reduce longs.

Regarding NFLX, MYGN and the new reload of OTEX longs, I will cut any of these if they are to close near the lows of the session so far (or worse). In the meantime I'm willing to let them recover (I'd like to see NFLX close at least near the 10-day of 47.25; MYGN >40.25 or so and preferably closer to the 50-day at 42.23; and OTEX I need to close >50-day of 33.31).

I'm down about 1.5% on the week at the moment. That is perfectly acceptable given I came into the week mostly long (and the give-back is mild compared to recent gains). At the same time though, if accounts keep slipping here I will start getting smaller; regroup then for later.

Like Bernie, I hate to see accounts dropping...We'll see.

[edit: I should mention the STRA short - the comm. school group has been dropping considerably in terms of relative strength and this group is breaking on rising volume again today. And while I'm here, I was stopped on the NTRS and NTG shorts]

Total Position: 1.27-1 net long, 73% invested
(Note: accounts are leaning roughly mkt-neutral, considering leverage of SDS)

Currently Long (according to size): NFLX, PMCS, CYOU CEO, WNR, MYGN, MNRO FORM, OTEX, CHKP,

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 14.7% position), NTRS, STRA, GE, NTG
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

No comments: