Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Rearranging Deck Chairs (short here for now)


Whatever I think about the market just now doesn't mean a great deal and it is subject to change rapidly anyhow. So let's just discuss more how I am positioning and less what the bigger picture paints.

I shifted short in the pre-market again and this time it looks like I will stick with that; for now. Later in the week however is the Good Friday holiday and as such we might see some seasonal strength come in on Thursday. It is possible I will ease back long by Thursday, depending.

I'm having a good session, especially considering that I was considerably net-long when I woke up (I changed that stance abruptly, as yesterday's less than stellar attempt at a reversal was going to be gapped right out of the picture today).

Good luck seeing the same kind of recovery today.

I sold several longs early in the regular session, but I did make one bothersome mistake. I managed a terrific entry long yesterday in the aftermkt on the new ipo CYOU. I mentioned then (via Twittspit) that >22 was really a better buy, but then today I went and sold it at 22.20 early in the session (grabbing the quick profit as I was nervous about my overly-long exposure and was selling things quickly, perhaps abruptly). Since then it has managed to take out the day-1 high and with strong, rising volume. This name hails from a leading group (same group as SNDA and NTES) and one of my favorite trades is to get long an ipo when it takes out the day-1 high (getting above that level demonstrates that buying demand is greater than the profit-taking supply; from those who got in on the ipo price and then are flipping to lock in quick, handsome profits; momentum and demand are greater than anything that can stop it).

If the market is going to manage a standard pause before re-climbing higher again (too soon to say and a bit ambitious perhaps) then CYOU is the type of new leadership I will jam hard with for the remainder of its first several weeks (or until it stops leading).

I bot back the same size of CYOU at 22.92 and am wearing that one still; we'll see what happens.

Total Position: 1.1-to-1 net long, 77% invested
(Note: though the position is slightly net-long, technically it is leaning notably short due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges TWM and SRS; TWM-weight is >15% at the moment)

Currently Long (according to size): TSYS, ARST, MNRO, NFLX, CHKP, RJI, MYGN, CYOU, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), GE, AAPL, VNO, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

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