Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Sans Hedge (running long for the memories)

Fortunately I remain an idiot.

So far so good with this new swing higher. I went into tonight with considerably increased long exposure, only two core-shorts, and nothing in the way of index or other hedges. I'm playing this beast as if it were 1999.

For a day.

I won't speak for next week and I will look to hedge + reduce late in the day tomorrow (sooner if sellers regain control). But tomorrow should be a relatively quiet affair, whereby leadership names (perhaps others, but I'm not really concerned there) drift higher on low volume. It will get thin late in the day and so I need to work orders a bit, but if it plays out like a standard pre-holiday April session it will be rewarding enough.

I wont be surprised to see strength last into Monday as well, but I'll have much of my ass off of the chopping block by then. If we get a bang-up session then Monday, I will step over the bodies of the shorts and look to remove nearly all of these long goodies; or at least scale myself short enough in other places in preparation for the next wave of selling. But as with the strategy previously, if we can keep a more slow and steady rise higher I will hang in until things get more emotional, or until sellers take control (hanging in long as long as profitable in the meantime).

Again, don't do what I do. My current position is like running across the freeway to grab bars of gold - it can be dangerous if poorly timed (and one gets a little heavier with each additional bar).

to my mind it is 2AM and Sunday morning and I can run like god (the tape is piling up bars of gold and traffic is negligible). But to you there may be Mack-trucks ready to take your ass up into your brainpan, for all I know.

It's a little late to ramp-up at this point anyway. The on-ramp was earlier this morning and the exit-ramp is not far off. Such is the spoils of a rally in this rotten, loathsome market ;)


Total Position: 5.8-to-1 net long, 88% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NFLX, RIMM, ARST, BBY, CYOU, MNRO, BKE, TSYS, CHKP, MYGN, DRI, RJI, WNR, TNDM

Currently Short (according to size): GE, AAPL

No comments: