Friday, May 29, 2009

Now THIS is Exciting

I'm late to press today, but hey - we're all just sitting around and waiting for this obvious market correction to get going again, right? It's so perfectly obvious and we're all so lathered-up over the impending doom, every minor dribble lower is earnestly greeted as the new-run to helltown.

Hey Einstein - never short a dull market, right? I'm falling alseep on the watch here, even though my longs are apt to get buried any moment.

Honestly, I was pretty confident that once the buzz had evolved from terrified horror (evident at the early March lows) to hopes that we may be seeing a recovery (evident the last few weeks), this would mark the point at which to fire short and then fire again and again, all the way down. But it hasn't worked-out that way. Sentiment shifted, to hope from horror, and yet the bear remains in the lair (not characteristic of a bear-market rally, my growling friends).

The bear in lair remains mainly...on the rare.

Seriously, we've watched bear-paint dry, action remains quiet and formidable and yet everywhere bears remain pounding tables about all these next-shoes to drop. Really, really soon; okay, now; nope, should have said now!; okay, okay, now; well, eat me you god-damned market manipulators - most definitely NOW!

Not, kidding, while I'm writing away the market is starting down again and we're nearing the lows of the day.

The accupressure is killing me.

I'll continue to error on the long (and wrong) side until this trend finally, ultimately, eventually breaks down; regardless of better logic and thinking.

Logic and thinking are useful, but when wrong it can be deadly instead. I prefer to react; leave the thinking to you guys.

I'm not bragging, I can screw-up as well as the next guy (if I let me). I fell on my sword last night with my Euro and BR Pound shorts (finally). The pullback there was short-lived and today now the dollar is continuing its slideride toward infinite, dismal, abyssnessness.

Oddly, I got back-up on that horse again today after hearing renewed and relentless chimes about the weak dollar; everwhere from CNBC to Good Morning Amnesia. Although I'm scaling in gingerly (I am only 1/3rd into the expected new-position ((assuming this trade begins to work)), I am at least comforted to know that I am (again!) the last guy on Earth who is actually short the dollar.

The ECB meets next week. My 2-cents says that when everyone is on one side in the currency market, going into a fundamental event, futures will trade the other way. This is a very, very big and liquid market and by my math the participants reside almost entirely on one-side of the ship.

Then again, that's logic and thinking and I'm risking considerably more than 2-cents. Not to mention I'm a guy with fresh egg still all over his face.

The accupressure is killing me.

Total Position: 100% net long, 41% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.6%), LIHR (8%), ASIA ( 6.6%), SNDA(6.1%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (3.4%), MRVL(2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position

Futures Accounts: (covered previous June BR Pound short last night, 1.6069 and remaining Euro at 1.3994. new positions now below...)
-Short 10% Jun Euro 1.4121
-Short 10% Jun BR Pound, 1.6180

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