Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Bears in Wraps (tame reversal action)


I'm half-full of fool today - keeping my glass nose exposed long; following the market's early pivot higher yesterday.

I've been active, even if quiet. Getting back to long was easy enough, but keeping hands on flames as the rally begins sputtering today is full fool faith; daring bears to wrap teeth around my already wooden leg.

I'm keying on several things simultaneously and not all of them are positive; surely. But for the immediate moment (which just passed, sorry) I am recognizing the tape is still flashing a bit of strength, coincident to the overall action beginning to slow. If we are really rolling over again I would expect a lower-high reversal to be more exciting than this day has been able to show so far.

That last line is the meat of this entry. The market rally from yesterday has stalled some, yes. But the reversal has been as exciting as special-order mud flaps.

Even though noticeable - not so moving.

You are correct, it is the end of the quarter tomorrow. I didn't use that as a bullish argument though, since frankly that dynamic is closer now to a sell-the-news event. Whatever leadership upside we've seen which might be attributed to window dressing is already in the cake. Move on Einstein - get a look at October.

And that isn't to say we're poised for straight-down action either - now that end of the quarter support should be waning. Sit down Sophocles.

You show me straight-down action and I'll perceive straight-down action. You put teeth in my leg and I'll hobble my ass to the other side.

In the meantime I'm keeping long, soaking 39% in the sun atop these shark-infested waters. Cue the scary music.

Note: I am jockeying a lot more in accounts than I am blogging about lately, but I've been able to keep trades updated live though via Twitt-trough on the right>>>.

-Total Position: Aprox. 4-to-1 net-long, considering lower-beta UUP hedge
-52% invested
overall
-Pure-longs = 39%


Currently Long (according to size): SWM (5.4%), SXCI (5.2%), CFSG (3.5%), RKT (5%), CLW (5%), CTSH (5%), TSRA (4.9%), ULTA (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-UUP-long (12.2%); current inverse correlation with equity markets defines this as an equity hedge

Futures Accounts: no position

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