Classically Trained, for the Revolution

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Sitting on Hands (sans hedge here at moment)


Yes you can!

Bears are jumping up and down now, seeing actual red on the tape and a negative reversal in the major averages.

Myself, I had a sloppy cover of my new SDS hedge, coughing it up as the averages surged early, only to watch them revert right back to Earth afterward.

Amateur!

Fine. Normally I would hop right back on, if/when I regret exiting a trade. But this is a hedge and I am committed still to the long-side as long as it is working.

And no offense to bears (ha!) but in many ways I am less nervous today than I have been most of the week.

The reason is that I'm looking to hedge in order to protect - for defense. But of my still-too-many 13 longs today, there are only 3 in the red at the moment (meaning, if this is the pressure I was worried about ensuing, then I may as well just try to ride it out).

CNBC's Fast Money just finished (morning segment) and 4 out of 4 of the trader pros there suggested selling this market; but breadth is not very negative, far from extreme; leadership is obviously holding well, with names like AAPL and GS still up strong on the session; stocks are still breaking out to the upside, charts remain live and I'm up almost a full percent with currently 10 out of 13 longs in the green.

What me worry?

Anyway, my finger is not far from the trigger, but I am going to keep to the strategy of hedging only if I have to (may be before you even read this ;). I don't mind a bit of whipsaw now and then and I don't expect to trade perfectly. But I will not be net-short this market until the long side stops working.

Total Position: Aprox. 7.5-to-1 net-long, considering under-levered UUP hedge; 72% invested (pure-longs amnt to 60%)

Currently Long (according to size): SNDA (7.2%), CFSG (5.6%), NEU (5.6%), CTSH (5.6%), CYOU 5.5%), RKT (5.4%), ULTA (5.3%), CLW (5.1%), JDAS (4.2%), ININ (3.9%), SWI (3.3%), FNSR (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-Long-UUP here (12.1%); which due to inverse correlation with equity mkts defines this as an equity hedge and I have it in the short-camp as a result.

Futures Accounts:
-20% Dec BR Pound short, from 1.6497
-Covered Dec SP500 short today at 1057.75

My leg - bear mouths...

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