Wednesday, September 09, 2009

UUP Line on currency position

I went short the BR Pound today; a partial hedge on equity longs and not speculation. The 6% UUP in accounts without futures attached substitutes the Pound short.

I'm not especially bullish on the Dollar, so I may as well explain - I think it is clear at moment the correlation of the Dollar and equities markets is such that a $-bounce higher now would not be positive for stocks.

At the same time, it was slightly disturbing then today that while we have heard nearly universal negative opinions on Ol'USD lately, the action on the chart today was eerily close to firming.

And then there is the divergence whereby the major (stock) indices have not yet made convincing new highs on this move, while the Dollar most certainly made a new low.

Within the currencies, the even Ol'r Br. Pound is well below its high vs. the Buc; not true with other major currencies.

Don't do what I do, as my number now is most surely up - I'm even posting pictures of bears underwater now, so you know payback is coming. Anyway, that is why I am short Pounds.

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