Monday, October 12, 2009

Bleak Week

Bleak as it sounds, the market may not be up every day this week again.

I'm laying a bit low, focused instead on getting back to the water immediately after the close; literally. I'm really geared-up this time around, having packed the latest high-powered rubber band technology known to mammals; front and rear flash floodlights, waterproof encased with adjustable cranium domeband; and a finely spun tooth-proof body suit to set the mood.

If I can't kill the market, something's going to pay.

I don't pretend to know how ugly the selling will get. What every pro that rolls onto CNBC tells me lately though is that an imminent pullback on company earnings will be followed by a strong year-end rally. That Earnings will not yet show enough strength to justify these levels in stock prices; so naturally they will sell on the news. Then, the seasonally strong year end period, combined with the same pros being so far behind the market this year, will conjoin like Siamese Twingos and rock us ultimately higher; to even more unjustified levels I guess.

That's a tidy assessment. If I were an odds-maker I would have to take the line of strength into and out of earnings, followed by an anti-seasonal year end drubbing.

Listen, to use 'seasonal' as an argument for anything these days is, well, un-pro like. Seasonal has been upside down if not sideways for almost two years.

Wake up cowboy.

Anyway, I'll let those guys make the money for the time being. I'm fairly neutral, lightly exposed and getting lighter. Leadership growth still behaves well (else I would be out altogether), the charts still show power and almost nothing will surprise me in the near term - aside from a pullback on earnings, followed by strength into the seasonally strong November/December period - ha!

Speaking of neoprene, that'll be the last time I fly in a full body suit of the stuff. I thought I was being clever, fully wet-suited right down to my 3-ply Saran wrap skivvy's, corduroy jacket around the shoulders to keep appearances leaning normal; looking to hit the water within an hour of landing. But I was sweating liquid faster than I could replace it, trying hard to speak coherently, asking for more and more water, dripping on the passenger next to me in order to take the next bottle; otherwise staring out the window at my own Islands of Langerhans passing below.

Something's gotta pay.

-Total Position: ~1.7-to-1 net-long
-58% invested
-Pure-longs = 42%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (6.8%), HRBN (6.7%), ULTA (5.2%), CLW (4.3%), SWM (4%), CFSG (4%), HMIN (3.9%), PTI (3.9%), RINO (3.6%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, reloaded today, 9.7%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective R2k-index).
-TER (5.5%)

Futures Accounts: no current position

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