Friday, October 02, 2009

Carnival Knowledge

While I know action in the US market has a direct impact on Chinese growth ADR's traded in the US, a large part of me this morning was wondering if these companies should be so woeful of lack of jobs in the west. So woeful as to gap-down an additional 5-10 percent on our negative news.

I'm having a good day and making up for yesterday's drubbing in rapid fashion. But I've still got hands (and now feet) on the chopping block and have to focus on where I am going from here. Sell, hedge or swing this position as-is into next week.

Terrifically boring, I know - but if you were jumping up and down with hearty gains last night, as you were so brilliant as to be short this ridiculous market, then you're likely getting whacked again right now. Contrary to how we like to behave, up and down excitement is no edge in the long run. Steady, dull and boring might just be better.

Yes, there are bears who were short and covered at the open today. That's good for them because they got the week exactly right. But the day you celebrate is the day you should be out of the market, not in front of it. As the next day (or next) will bite your brilliance down.

Fortunately for me, I remain an idiot. Aside from clear and obvious set-ups like a highly anticipated pathetic jobs report, I don't want to get in front of the trade. I don't want to prove anything to the market. I don't care that the world economy is a board game, I don't care if athlete's utilize growth hormones to enhance performance, and I don't care that old-world Chicago cannot topple an emerging giant.

We are so subjectively focused, aren't we? I mean, how can this US market have rallied so high since March when we can't even buy the Olympic games anymore? What's been driving this rally anyway?

That's all the bile for now. I've got the rest of my RINO position (beast!). And apparently water treatment jobs in China must be doing OK, because group-mate DGW was also a bit of a gift at the open. I also have to deal now with too-much CFSG and not so much TSL. All from China, somewhere east of Rio.

Brag post? Undoubtedly. But in younger times I would have attempted being 200% short yesterday, covering and backing-up the truck long at today's open, head for Mexico for the weekend and then come back Monday in time to blow myself apart. I can't trade like that anymore.

Unfortunately ;)

-Total Position: >3-to-1 net-long, considering levered TWM hedge.
-55% invested
-Pure-longs = 48%

Currently Long (according to size): CFSG (increased today, 8.2%), SXCI (6.3%), SWM (5.4%), TSL (new today, 5%), RINO (increased today, 4.9%), BCSI (4.8%), JDAS (4.6%), DGW (new today, 4.5%), CTSH (4%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short; reduced today, 7.7%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective R2k-index).

Futures Accounts: no position

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