Thursday, October 22, 2009

Lickety CRIC (Jailbait IPO China Real Estate Info)


I'm back to market-neutral for the moment, although I'm working orders to blow-out one of these pigs below; so if nothing else changes I'll be slightly net-short, shortly.

Half full of half empty is the action today - you can slice and dice any way you, want but we're in a bit of a waiting game. That leans positive, perhaps, for the very near term, but I don't think there is going to be higher and higher highs this time around, should today's low represent something of a pivot-point.

I'm allowed to be wrong fortunately, especially with my thoughts, but I will continue taxi-dancing with various names and position coat-tails as needed; always conscious now of the current emergency exits.

I mentioned last night I wanted newer leadership to accumulate long, at least early in this correction (I said it). That idea remains true. I do this because every fire alarm does not equate to a burning building. Thus, when bells start ringing I like to shift my ass towards the exits, but I am willing to ask some of the hot-money Amazonians for a dance at the same time. Or - I'm jamming for false-alarm opportunities but I'm in a heightened state and willing to bolt for the door at the point smoke is undeniable.

Enter CRIC (China Real Estate Info). CRIC is definitely jailbait (a Chinese IPO only 5 days old), but I was able to pick it up on a back-test of a promising gap-higher; from Day-2 of trading. I have very little to go on, other than under-developed technicals, and some of the underlying fundamental metrics are not yet available. But I know the look of an IPO that I like and this diddy is oozing that scent so far. Yes it may develop into a dramatic loser (prom date with Carrie), but that is okay since I am keenly looking for indications of blood and I am willing to take the (relatively) small hit upon rushing then to the exit. Potential risk vs, potential reward makes the expected value firmly positive (+EV); if I think I stand to make more than I'm risking and I think the odds of success are higher than chance of failure, then I am wiling to lose that bet every time. If CRIC can swing, she will make higher-highs in no time. One caveat, is if I awake to dreadful CRIC news and the stock gaps below more reasonable benchmarks (i.e. a bucket of pigs blood lands directly on my head). But surprise negative news is exceptionally rare in an fresh IPO which is trading well-above its initial IPO price ($12/shr in this case). Underwriters do not want to bring a company public without a certain amount of visibility and you almost never see surprise fundamental negative news in fresh, hot-money issues.

As always, don't do what I do. Find your own partner, bud.

This Carrie is mine!

-Total Position: roughly market-neutral, considering levered TWM and SRS hedges
-63% invested
overall
-Pure-longs = 41%


Currently Long (according to size): CRIC (new today, 6%), ININ (increased today, 5.6%), SXCI (reloaded today, 5.1%), RKT (5%), HRBN (5%), WATG (4.7%), HMIN (4.2%), CHBT (3.2%), OWW (reduced today, 3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 15.5%)
-SRS-long (US Real Estate Dbl-short, reduced today, 5.6%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short their respective index).

Futures Accounts: Out of Dec BR Pound, 1.6572 ave.

No comments: