Thursday, October 08, 2009

Tony G and Me

You're still here?

Well, my apologies in advance. I'm doing anything I can right now not to sell out my entire line, take to the sidelines and book an overnight flight to the pup seal capital of the world for a little R&R.

Why should I be miserable? Prices are rising, my names are performing well as leadership continues to out-pace the broad market, fewer jobs were lost last week and dullwether AA smacked the industrial complex higher after reporting less than pathetic numbers.

How bad could it get?

But here I am, sitting mostly on hands while my amygdala screams intervention, listening to an uncomfortably growing excitement and enthusiasm in all directions regarding the prospects for stocks.

Save one.

Normally, I prefer to keep accelerating exposure as the market rallies, but not so much this time around. Leadership growth continues to out-perform (I mentioned, which is keeping me from doing anything rash); excitement is running higher now than the major indices (a negative divergence); we have not yet traded to higher-highs in the overall market, nor in momentum, yet the jump-up-and-down brigade has broken-out to new recent heights (a shift-side-to-side negative).

Why am I angry? Why should you have to suffer?

Because this is yellow-light material only. I can't really do anything about it (save complain). Momentum, volume and price-action carry greater weight, while reading sentiment is more like tomorrow's weather forecast. I don't like to see sentiment rising faster than price levels, but over-enthusiasm it is not a proper license to sell. Over-enthusiasm is more like a warning to re-fill Koolaid cups before they take the punch bowl away. Shuffle your body closer to the filling station so you can grab two last hunks of meat and stuff it in your shirt when you see them coming; just to casually toothpick a modest meatball and refill your cup as you smile to the arriving host.

Save one.

Ok, wtf is Save One? Save this! Jerky. You call yourself a professional?

Seriously, students of the market should just leave now, because they are going to get this wrong and it can only screw up how they look at things. It makes zero sense. Continue shorting the rigged system instead because you know better (if you last long enough you'll be right, certainly, and then you can sharpen pencils and figure out where to take profits lower; cause your that smart and can ultimately re-short higher then after bagging a few percentage points and catching a beer with some friends).

Or, hold your head under water for 20 minutes. I guarantee you will the upside pressure will go away.

Trish has yet to chirp-maximum. That's it - that's all I have to say. Nothing brilliant - just stupid in fact. Trish, who is only on for about 90 minutes during the session - no signal. Nothing. She may as well have went to sleep today. She is not yet moved - she is not yet excited.

Is the market due to keep rising because Trish has not gotten excited yet? No no no. The goose lays golden eggs, she doesn't make you a sandwiches while you wait. All I know from Trish is that when those octaves reach the high end of her lovely singing spectrum - for the time being the party is over. Other than that no value for traders of markets, not from Trish.

If she had done so today, like so many other jokers this session, I'd feel better right now since I'd be taking (knowing) action instead of sitting here and worrying (not knowing) about how much upside meat could be left; whether we will make higher-highs or fail- whether we gap-lower on the failure and smack me in the face; whether I can take a few days off from Bob-obvious Pisani's voice soon because I can't keep up this shouting match with my screen without worrying about my well-being; whether I can try another sport, just for some refreshing variety.

That's how you play king-jack - and you call yourself a professional? On your bike - up and away...

-Total Position: ~2.5-to-1 net-long
-74% invested
-Pure-longs = 59%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (7.2%), SXCI (6.8%), HRBN (6.6%), CFSG (6.2%), SWM (6.2%), WYN (new today, 5.2%), BCSI (5.2%), CLW (4.6%), PTI (3.9%), HMIN (reduced today, 5.1%), RINO (reloaded new today, 3.2%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, reloaded today, 10%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective R2k-index).
-TER (5.2%)

Futures Accounts: no current position

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