Sunday, November 29, 2009

Slippery Slope (snowpack list of eligible shorts)


The UAE has saved the planet this weekend, coming to the aid of a troubled Dubai World (pictured above).

I for one am really pleased, since I couldn't understand how such a distant, seemingly insignificant default in the Mideast could ski-rope the global markets by the neck and pull it off the mountain.

Ha!

Personally, I don't care in hoot's hell what the catalyst is. If I sneeze and my arm falls off, then I know I'm coming down with a cold, sure. But that's got to be the good news, right?

Futures are higher tonight and the potential for a reasonable gap-up for equities is strong. My eyes are burning from screening a couple thousand charts the last 48 hours, but I'm emerging finally now with my new go-to list of eligible shorts.

I'll key on this as an attack-list throughout the week and key the groups especially which lead us lower on any given session. I'm not trying to short the strongest names in the market. Some of these still show reasonable, overall relative strength (RS), but those few are exhibiting some other negative divergence (and all of the groups below are declining notably in RS for the previous 1-to-6 weeks).

Why am I getting short this market? Do I see the next shoe dropping for the markets?

Ha and Ha! I'm getting short for a variety of technical and psychological indicators (and a hint of fundamentals, but fundamentals have been mostly negative for some time already; you knew that - which is why you were either on the sideline or else getting short some many months ago...let's not go there for your sake).

Severe downside? Oh sure, most definitely most maybe, it will perhaps be serious.

Or not. That's not my game this decade. This is the decade to let the market define the terms. I'm just a trader with smugs and few hugs (I sense you noticed I was getting snarky just now) and why the devil should I pretend to know how this chess board is going to play out six and sixty moves from now?

You keep me posted on that and we'll stay friends, okay?

Anyway, as always, this is not a list of here-and-now shorts, but an eligible list of my personal candidates. This week's screen is focused on the industry groups, both highly and poorly ranked, which have been dropping notably in terms of relative strength (RS). My selection process beyond that is based on divergences, liquidity and more.

Good trading - should be another fun weak(sic!)...

Banks-Money Center:
UBS
BK
HBC
C
MS
BAC
BCS
WFC
JPM
LYG
GS
DB

Finance-Investmnt Brokers:
RJF
IBKR (thin)
LAB (thin)
OXPS
SCHW
MF
NITE
BGCP
CS
BPSG

Finance-REITs:
KIM
LXP
PCL
IRET
FSP
REG
CUZ
DCT
CSE
ANH
UDR
CPT
AMB
DRE
WRE
MPG
FR
RYN
MFA
BXP
VNO
LRY
WRI
BMR
SPG
BDN

Finance-Mortgage Related:
FNM
FRE
OCN

Electronic-Semiconductor Equip:
WFR
ATMI (thin)
MKSI (thin)
FORM
AMAT
VRGY
LRCX
BRKS
KLAC
AEIS
CYMI
NVLS
VSEA

Electronic-Semiconductor Mfg:
ZRAN
IDTI
SIGM
CY
MCHP
XLNX
SPIL
IRF
CRUS
SMTC
NSM
ISIL
AMTL
HIMX
MCRL
ANAD
BRCM
LLTC
STM
DIOD
VLTR
STEC
ONNN
PMCS
TQNT
SLAB
TSRA
SNDK

Telecom-Wireless Equip:
NVTL
ERIC
CMTL
NOK
TRMB
QCOM
RIMM
HSTX
GRMN

Telecom-Svcs:

CBEY
ALSK
LVLT (penny stock)
TNDM

Elec-Component Connector:
MOLX
TNL
IIVI
VSH

Computer-Software Security:
VRSN
SYMC
MFE

Computer-Networking:
ELON
RVSN
PLCM
JNPR
CSCO
BRCD
RVBD

Internet-Software:

RNWK
GIGM
WBSN
ARBA

Commcl Svcs-Schools:
LRN
COCO
APOL
APEI
ESI
STRA
DV
LINC

Apparel-Clothing Mfg:
CRI
TRLG
ZQK (penny stock)
COLM
LIZ
UA

Retail-Clothing/Shoe:
HOTT
BEBE
WTSLA
JOSB
FL
CWTR
ZUMZ
PSUN
NWY
PLCE
SSI
BKE
LTD
ARO
SMRT

Oil/Gas Field Svcs:
NR
WEL
ALY
TRMA
DVR
HOS
TDW
SLB
KEG
HAL
HLX
GLBL
CLB
MDR

Oil/Gas Intl-Exploration:
EGY
NXY
TLM

Metal Ores-Gold/Silver:
AEM
JAG

Machinery-Metal Hdlg/Automation:

HURC
CASC
KTEC
PRCP

Funeral Svcs & Related:

STEI

Medical-Biomed/Biotech:
ITMN
RIGL
CYPB
ALTH
MDCO
VPHM
ALNY
PDLI
GERN
CRXL
ARNA
MATK
REGN
AOB
AMAG
ALKS
BIIB

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