Thursday, December 31, 2009

Quicknote for Year End

I've been more awol than expected this week, and traveling again now today. As always, it is easy enough for me to update trades via Twitter, since it requires less time and energy vs. blogging. When I go missing here, I have so far kept up with updates over there.

I'm still holding a few smaller-cap longs (HMIN, CISG, HRBN and ULTA; 14% invested overall) and at this point expect to take them all into next week.

I did play several more, with the intention of selling by today. The year-end didn't work out so well, but no disasters either.

I don't like the idea of holding anything long into next week which has had an exceptionally strong 2009, as these have a tendency to sell-off early in the new year (historically). This was a mucky quarter for me (basically flat in a decent market), but the year over all was very strong; so I'm far from complaining.

Straight-up or straight down action next week would surprise me the least (and drama is possible in either direction). The common idea held of a short-term pullback early in the year is the scenario I agree with the least. I would argue we've had a pullback already, in most of the leadership names (although the NDX leaders did finish the year strong); so opening the new year and rallying strong from the get-go will make perfect sense; short-term.

Otherwise, I would be surprised to see early weakness, followed by strength; or if not straight-up, I would be wary of the potential for straight-down instead.

As always, we shall see. Keeping small here going into the year, so I can adapt easily.

Best luck in 20TEN!

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