Sunday, May 31, 2009

Live Longs for a Friendly Bear


Bears will be bears, and as such bears were frothing-up the Internet all weekend over being so blatantly manipulated (again!); by that snidely, late upper-cut action on Friday.

Brutal yes, but leadership growth just might be a better trade; as long as the market is rising.

This week's list focuses on rising relative-strength industry groups. Within these groups I favor high RS (and/or new recent highs in RS), strong EPS + revenue growth/potential, positive technical patterns/set-ups and at least a reasonable amount of liquidity (I require slightly less liquidity in longs than in shorts).

This is my working list for the week and should in no way be misconstrued as anything resembling a recommendation. Short them for all I care - but certainly don't buy unless you are independent of me.

Asterisks are included where I see a name either breaking-out, potentially breaking-out or imminently capable of breaking-out. These too are not recommendations. Sometimes these are the worst possible buy in fact, when a break-out fails...look at that weak volume for instance - you wanted to buy that?

High Five!

Internet-Network Solutions:

ASIA
FFIV
RAX*
DRIV
ARBA (extended)

Internet-Content:
CYOU
SNDA
NTES
PWRD
SOHU

Semiconductor Mfg:
TSRA*
MPWR
ADI
STEC (extended, looking to enter on hard slice lower)
TQNT
CREE
MRVL
VLTR
HIMX
FCS
AMCC (extended)
RFMD
CY
SPIL
BRCM
OVTI
ONNN
PMCS

Computer-Security Sftwr:
ARST*
MFE
CHKP
MVSN

Computer Networking:
COMS
BBOX (thin)
RVBD
JNPR

Computer-Data Storage:

NTAP
TDC

Telecom-Wireless Equip:
STAR*
RIMM

Telecom-Fiber Optics:
JDSU
FNSR (pennystock; enter above .67)

Retail-Whlsle-Computer/Cell:

IM
TECD

Oil & Gas-Machinery-Equip:
DRQ
WFT
CAM
FTI
DRC

Oil & Gas-Refiners:
INT
WNR
IOC
SSL

Metal Ores-Gold/Silver:
WGW (thin)
IAG
AU*
AUY
SLW
DROOY (thin)
LIHR
RGLD
GG
GOLD
HL

Metal Ores: (will post during week if group leading on-the-day)

Banks-Money Center:
TD
GS
MS

Banks-Foreign:
IBN
HDB

Retail-Clothing/Shoe:
CTRN
BKE
DBRN

Retail-Restaurants:
DIN
EAT
DRI (enter above 36.35)
PFCB
PZZA
PEET (enter above 27)

Paper:

RKT

Friday, May 29, 2009

Now THIS is Exciting

I'm late to press today, but hey - we're all just sitting around and waiting for this obvious market correction to get going again, right? It's so perfectly obvious and we're all so lathered-up over the impending doom, every minor dribble lower is earnestly greeted as the new-run to helltown.

Hey Einstein - never short a dull market, right? I'm falling alseep on the watch here, even though my longs are apt to get buried any moment.

Honestly, I was pretty confident that once the buzz had evolved from terrified horror (evident at the early March lows) to hopes that we may be seeing a recovery (evident the last few weeks), this would mark the point at which to fire short and then fire again and again, all the way down. But it hasn't worked-out that way. Sentiment shifted, to hope from horror, and yet the bear remains in the lair (not characteristic of a bear-market rally, my growling friends).

The bear in lair remains mainly...on the rare.

Seriously, we've watched bear-paint dry, action remains quiet and formidable and yet everywhere bears remain pounding tables about all these next-shoes to drop. Really, really soon; okay, now; nope, should have said now!; okay, okay, now; well, eat me you god-damned market manipulators - most definitely NOW!

Not, kidding, while I'm writing away the market is starting down again and we're nearing the lows of the day.

The accupressure is killing me.

I'll continue to error on the long (and wrong) side until this trend finally, ultimately, eventually breaks down; regardless of better logic and thinking.

Logic and thinking are useful, but when wrong it can be deadly instead. I prefer to react; leave the thinking to you guys.

I'm not bragging, I can screw-up as well as the next guy (if I let me). I fell on my sword last night with my Euro and BR Pound shorts (finally). The pullback there was short-lived and today now the dollar is continuing its slideride toward infinite, dismal, abyssnessness.

Oddly, I got back-up on that horse again today after hearing renewed and relentless chimes about the weak dollar; everwhere from CNBC to Good Morning Amnesia. Although I'm scaling in gingerly (I am only 1/3rd into the expected new-position ((assuming this trade begins to work)), I am at least comforted to know that I am (again!) the last guy on Earth who is actually short the dollar.

The ECB meets next week. My 2-cents says that when everyone is on one side in the currency market, going into a fundamental event, futures will trade the other way. This is a very, very big and liquid market and by my math the participants reside almost entirely on one-side of the ship.

Then again, that's logic and thinking and I'm risking considerably more than 2-cents. Not to mention I'm a guy with fresh egg still all over his face.

The accupressure is killing me.

Total Position: 100% net long, 41% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.6%), LIHR (8%), ASIA ( 6.6%), SNDA(6.1%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (3.4%), MRVL(2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position

Futures Accounts: (covered previous June BR Pound short last night, 1.6069 and remaining Euro at 1.3994. new positions now below...)
-Short 10% Jun Euro 1.4121
-Short 10% Jun BR Pound, 1.6180

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Mush!


I may have spoke too soon yesterday. Like the end of Grizzly Man, where the guy decides to stay too-long into the pre-hibernation period and that new loner bear comes around whom he has no previous relationship with - that's the bear who eats his ass. No care to what a good guy he is/was. Chomps without reflection.

Well, maybe not that bad. You bears are sweating some. We're all sweating some. Wake me up when one of us is getting eaten.

We're back to murky, mushy action. Retail is taking body shots, following housing revisions and rising foreclosures (apparently, up to 8% of mortgages are on the stretching rack). Otherwise the market remains as half-full as it is half-empty. If you are picking good stocks to play (long or short) then you are doing alright. If you are expecting huge fireworks, then you are living in the wrong month.

I'm flat on the week, somehow!, but daddy still needs a new pair of snowshoes if you know what I mean. I'm focusing long (though lightly invested) until we can actually break this trend. If action waxes uglier now I will have to hedge at least; but so far I remain patient. If we resume higher and leadership is firm, I'll be happy to increase exposure.

I cut-back the Euro short last night and might be happier now if I had let it all go (it has recovered from last night's sell-off). I was bailed-out nicely this week, but if the dollar is truly weakening again I'm not going to take a second ride against the tide there.

Gold is at a 3-month high. I still favor LIHR, which broke out last week on reasonable volume. This has been a nice pair-trade to my dollar short. If you forced me I would admit the gold trade looks better than the dollar short (but what do I know anyway?).

As far as other longs, RIMM and that group of Telecom-Wireless equipment stocks remain quite firm, while the Internet-Content trio of CYOU, SNDA and NTES continue to suggest that institutional money has still got game(rs); and I continue to see ASIA (Asiainfo, from the Internet-Solutions group) as the most powerful, reasonable break-out leadership play. There are other bigger gainers out there, but I'm not swinging for 150% risers who've suddenly cured the need for cancer.

Tread well my friends.

Total Position: 100% net long, 38% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.4%), ASIA ( 6.5%), LIHR (6%), SNDA(5.8%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (2.9%), MRVL(2.9%, reports this evening)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position [was just stopped on MDT]

Futures Accounts:
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave. (covered 10% last night, 1.3793)
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Long and Wrong (thank god)

Thank god for churning. I'd be losing money right now if I wasn't such a maniac.

Yesterday was indeed a game changer. We saw a reversal-recovery on mostly negative news and did not let-up until the bear parade was sufficiently punked.

I let go almost all my remaining shorts in the first 40 minutes today on the weaker open (after unloading indices and a couple of names yesterday). I'm still shrinking here, as planned, but now almost entirely long-only. The remaining short, MDT, may have been covered by the time you are reading this, for all I know. I have no reason to believe I will be holding this much longer. Consider me as the guy pictured here on the far left; my ass far from those horns.

I continue to post all trades in realtime via Twitter. Good luck keeping-up and don't try at home in any case. You think too much and I just told you I am a maniac anyway.

I'm not going to target the potential upside here (since I hate targets!), but I know I don't want to be short a market that refuses to sell-off when the opportunity is/was presented. Yesterday's reversal and today's subsequent action is enough to make an impression. You bears can make all that money without me. I know you're good for it.

Cliff Notes: Our mostly half-full glass which had drained two-quarters-empty tipped-back and recaptured full-half stature. Foolish traders like myself prefer again to error on the long-side, since leadership is acting reasonable while shorts are considering whether that was five shots or six that went into their head.

I am overall small for the time beings. Shorts are getting punked.

Total Position: 7.85-to-1 net long, 32% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (7.4%), ASIA ( 6.7%), LIHR (5.9%), SNDA (5.8%), PEET (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
MDT (3.6%)

Futures Accounts:
-Short 30% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave.
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound,
1.5602 ave.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Sans the Shortlist

I won't be updating any short-list tonight. If the trend resumes downward tomorrow I may update then, but frankly it will need to be an impressive market shift to motivate me. Until proven otherwise I consider the market to be in a sideways trend now at worst; I'm still of the mind to keep things small, in terms of exposure, but I'll be focusing on long-side set-ups only until further notice.

Some notable leadership-groups and names I would highlight: Internet Content (CYOU, NTES and SNDA); Internet Solutions (ASIA, FFIV); Telecom-Wireless Equip (STAR, RIMM); Retail-Clothing/Shoe (BKE, CTRN, ROST, GYMB); Retail-Restaurants (PZZA, PEET-thin, JACK).

On the Wraps


Today's a bit of a game-changer.

It's not that the tide is turning so bullish again (though I can't rule that out). But with today's re-surge higher, with only mixed-news at best as the driver, we're back on track for quiet, directionless action in equities.

Volume today is only average, but otherwise internals are very strong across the tape (suggesting the rally will hold-up at least throughout today). I shifted to net-long, but my new main goal for the near-term is to get smaller now; until a trend is better established.

Unlike the bears I follow, who somehow are always...bearish! (and always loaded with justifications why, whether or not their world is working), I really don't want to invest in which direction this will ultimately resolve itself. If the trend is positive and leadership growth stocks are behaving well, I am fine to key on that side of the spectrum. If this is a 1-day rally and we resume downward again tomorrow or the next day, then I'll be happy to fire again short.

For now though, Project Bear is on hold - I'm shrink-wrapping in size and essentially waiting.

The updated short-list here should still be completed and posted by tonight (I suspect), but now I'm going to have to update a new list of eligible longs; given the cessation of selling in the broad market and the potential swing now higher.

Don't bite yourself to death. It may just not be that exciting in the markets right now.

Total Position: 1.09-to-1 net long, 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.8%), ASIA ( 6.6%), LIHR (5.9%), SNDA (5.4%), PEET (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
STRA (5.1%), NDAQ (4.4%), CAL (new, 3.7%), MDT (3.5%), CNO (2.8%), SKYW (2.8%)

Futures Accounts:
-Short 30% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave.
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound,
1.5602 ave.

Update on Shortlist

[Newer Note: I won't delete this post, but I am not looking to finalize and post an eligible list of shorts now until the market proves this necessary (Monday re-surge upward has quelled my appetite for shorts). Until proven otherwise I consider the market to be in a sideways trend now at worst. While you are reading this I am either shopping longs or else far-away vacation packages, depending on volatility. You are free to look at the list...I'm not joining you.]

[Note: The updated list of eligible shorts is unfinished and I need a few hours sleep. I could post what is done as an incomplete draft, or I could wait and post the full list sometime tomorrow. If you prefer the former then scroll away. If you are the type of person who hates unfinished work, move along, this post will delete itself sometime before late Monday night.]

Transportation-Airline:
SKYW
UAUA
LCC
CAL; enter below 11.09; 999% debt
ALGT
AMR
HA; 436% debt
DAL; 999% debt
ALK

Transport-Air Freight:
UPS
FDX
AAWW; thin; enter below 22.39

Transportation-Truck:
HTLD; enter below 14.20
ODFL; 11% short int; enter below 26.45
LSTR
YRCW; enter below 3.40
ABFS; 13% short int; enter below 26.10
WERN; 14% short int; enter below 17.65
CNW; 148% debt; enter below 28.99
JBHT; enter below 26.23
KNX

Transportation-Svcs:
EXPD; 1.2% yield, ex-dvd 28May; enter below 31.73
CHRW; 2% yield, ex-dvd 3Jun; enter below 49.98
HUBG

Transportation-Equipment Mfg:
WAB; 10% short int
TRN; 14% short int

Auto/Truck-Original Equip:
GNTX; enter below 10.88
BWA; 15% short int.
ALV; enter below 26.48
MGA; enter below 32.20
WBC
JCI; 2.8% yield, ex-dvd 10Jun; enter below 19.10
XIDE; enter below 6.38

Auto/Truck-Replace Parts:
LKQX; enter below 15.50

Commcl Svcs-Schools:
STRA; 22% short int
EDU; below 55.00
DV
APOL
ESI; 10% short int
APEI
COCO; 16% short int; enter below 16.25
CECO; 11% short int.

Leisure-Toys/Games/Hobby:
HAS
MAT

Food-Flour & Grain:
AIPC; enter below 28.50
CPO; enter below 27.00

Medical-Biomed/Biotech/Genetics:
ISIS; 10% short int
MYGN
ONXX
OSIP; 12.5% short int; enter below 35.20
ITMN; 13% short int
PDLI; big yield 15%, ex-dvd=?
GILD
ALXN; 10% short int; enter below 35.29
CELG
GPRO
ALKS
VRTX; 11% short int.
SEPR; enter below 14.50

Medical-Generic Drugs:
MYL; debt 191%; 25% short int
WPI; enter below 29.88
PRGO; enter below 27.73
SCR; thin; enter below 6.37

Medical-Biomed/Biotech/Genetics:
CI; enter below 22.25
HUM
AET
CVH; enter below 18.80
MGLN; thin
HS
HNT

Medical-Products:
MDT
BCR
BAX; 2.1% yield, ex-dvd 8Jun
BSX; enter below 8.93
QGEN; enter below 17.00
BLUD
SJM
THOR; 11% short int; enter below 26.30
ABMD; thin; enter below 5.77
PLL
WMGI; 10% short int; enter below 14.25
ZMH; enter below 46.60
SYK
COV

Medical-Nursing Homes:
SUNH, 179% debt
KND
ODSY; very thin; enter below 9.44

Medical-Whlsle Drug/Supply:
CAH

Commcl Svcs-Healthcare:
RX

Computer-Sftwr-Medical:
ATHN; 17% short int; enter below 30.73
QSII; 26% short int;
ECLP; enter below 14.25

Computer-Sftwr-Financial:
ACIW (thin)
JKHY; enter below 18.13
DST; 565% short int
EPIQ; 10% short int; enter below 14.75

Computer-Sftwr-Security:
SYMC

Computer-Manufacturers:
AAPL
HPQ
DELL

Computer-Tech Svcs:
MANT; enter below 39.95
IBM; enter below 106.82
DOX; enter below 21.20
ACS; enter below 45.85
SAPE; enter below 5.25

Telecom-Svcs:
T
VZ
FTR
WIN

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Night Gallery (round 3)

[Updated list of eligible shorts will post by late tonight, Monday 25th]

Friday, May 22, 2009

Stuck


When the last trader on Earth sells this dollar, let me know. That's going to set-up a nice trade.

Wait. That guy is me. The dude with a hot-poker stuck to his insides.

Fine, I admit it. I waited a few days, but I admit it. Now I don't even want to make money on this trade - I just want out. That's the psychology of a bad or poorly-timed trade (poorly bench-marked in my case). Now I've got to step over my own dead body to make money here. Who wants to perform like that?

Nature of the beast I guess.

I love my job, don't get me wrong. But it can get ugly. Sticking-out multiple parts in varying directions means occasionally something's going to get whacked. This is why you have got to be disciplined. This is why you can't let a loss get momentum on you.

This is why you want to push on players stuck in such a rut. Push push push until they either break or until some miracle bails them out. They're basically a zit that has one general destiny (pressure will build and build until something pops). I want to be pushing on that zit, I don't want to be the zit.

My futures accounts lately have been the zit.

Okay, okay, it's not all bad. These same zits losing money in futures this week performed very well with equities (still!). We're all shocked at how quickly you can return-to-sender gains in futures - but we're big boys, no? We're still printing money and the other side is still giving it away.

I'm not the only incredibly successful dolt on this planet right now either. The battle between Kobe and Carmelo is epic (if you haven't seen) - an epic war between two guys who are well-matched and uber-determined to out-perform the other. One guy is older, more cold-blooded and experienced, but the other guy is coming-on, bigger and with a longer reach (and frankly, quicker on the ball/boards). Anyhow, Kobe was in the zone of zones late last night; sick, cold-blooded zone - the kind that means he'll eat your children before he blows the opportunity. He was going to make his shot from anywhere on the court and he had demonstrated this several times in the fourth quarter (with Carmelo literally in his face). So when it was down to the final few seconds and his team (Lakers I think) needs 3-points to send it into over-time - the greatest basketball coach of all freaking time designs a play to get the ball to some ancient-glory old guy who throws-up prayers these days from behind the arc. Kobe doesn't even touch the ball. The play was sent somewhere else. No way to cash in like that. Half-off greatness coupon with the expiration date expired. Jaw dropper.

When I saw that, I felt better about having misdirected this currency trade. I gave the ball to Fisher. Fisher didn't eat any little children. I'm sitting here with dollar-off egg on my face.

Fine. Today is that ever-lovely brand of pre-holiday seasonal strength. Only this time the market is a bit suspect coming in, so no whole-hog approach (if we re-cave later in the session it won't be a shocker). I did adjust for this and fortunately my longs today are walking over my shorts (hence, even though I'm still slightly net-short, equity portfolios are up nicely).

Towards the end of the day (or sooner if things should deteriorate) I expect to re-shift back to net-short. This is either a negative or else dull market now, until proven otherwise. I have my views, but I am still not sharing. I will however do my best to keep in stride with it as it develops. One half-step behind in most cases (which is unlike being the only guy left who's long the dollar).

Good long weekend. I'm going to get outside and kill something. I'll be back with my updated kill-list of shorts by Monday night. Don't do what I do - now you know why I'm always saying it/

Total Position: 1.07-to-1 net short (plays 1.19-to-1 net short considering leveraged SKF), 63% invested (NOTE: stepped out of SDS temporarily for seasonal strength. Will likely go into wkend closer to 2-1 net-short, depending).

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA ( 6.7%), CYOU (6.1%), LIHR (5.9%), SNDA (reduced, 5.7%), BKE (3.7%), PEET (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SDS-long (temporarily 0%; SP500 Dbl-short), STRA (5.1%), NTRS (new, 4.1%), NDAQ (4.1%), CAL (new, 3.7%), SKF-long (3.6%; Fncl's Dbl-short), MDT (3.5%), FULT (3%), CNO (2.8%), SKYW (2.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: (still stuck and buried long these)
-Short 30% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave.
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound,
1.5602 ave.

Options (relevant accounts): no position

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Quicknote

I just trimmed a little on the short side, but remain 2-to-1 net-short (including leverage), 68% invested; for now.

I'm not writing today, but am updating trades via Twitter. I'll try to get a post out by tonight (at the same time I am looking to watch round-2 of Kobe vs. Carmelo...so we'll see). Tomorrow is seasonally a positive day for the market (pre-holiday session), but we're breaking down at the same time; so I'm not looking to shift long unless something wild occurs.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

even Quicker

Volume is not major, but we've put in a notable, legitimate distribution day and the market direction/trend is either reversing down or else flat-and-boring; we'll see.

I've adjusted a great deal today, letting go several longs and adding multiple shorts.

-Still long CYOU, ASIA, SNDA, LIHR and PEET for now
-Now short STRA, NTRS, CAL, NDAQ, BKE (reports in the AM), MDT, FULT, SKYW, CNO and I'm heavy-enough into double-inverse, deathshort etf's SKF and SDS.

Currently 2.51-to-1 net short (plays 3.15 net-short given leveraged short-etf's SKF and SDS); 69% invested

Note on Euro and BR Pound - while I did well enough shifting on the equity side I did get pounded short currencies in futures accounts today. Will be placing stops around today's highs going forward, but stops are mental now for the evening. Admittedly, these were not the best trades; dollar may bounce now, but doghouse rather confirmed there.

Quick Update (shift to net-short)

Guns are blazing in both directions today - as such I don't have a lot of time to discuss.

Quickly stated, internals remain mostly strong and yet to crack, but toppy signs are emerging (the market is churning since the gap higher, on rising volume; Fncl's are deteriorating and all indices are trading now below the opening-levels; breadth however is still quite strong).

If we're going to see a meaningful turn in the market it should begin reasonably soon (or it has basically begun from today's open). But while toppy action is evident (Financials especially) it remains to be seen whether or not the market is ready now to drive lower.

Higher prices still, or even a dull/boring consolidation sideways (zzzzz) remains just as possible as unlikely.

This is why I prefer to keep a half-step behind the market. A younger hot-shot me was always anticipating and sometimes paying for it (like some of you heroes these days). I'm a tiny bit late and happier for it.

Being a half-step slow here, there were a lot of portfolio changes (details on the Twittspit ), but below is my world as it stands now.

I am net-short from here as long as we keep below today's first-hour highs...

Total Position: 1.31-to-1 net short (plays 1.68-to-1 net short considering leveraged, short-etf's), 69% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (reduced 6.3%), ASIA (new, 5.2%), WNR (5.2%), DRI (3.8%), SNDA (reduced, 3.5%), LIHR (new, 2.9%) PEET (2.8%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SDS-long (new, 7.7%; SP500 Dbl-short), STRA (5.1%), NTRS (new, 4.1%), CAL (new, 3.9%), BKE (3.5%), SKF-long (new, 3.6%; Fncl's Dbl-short), MDT (3.4%), FULT (new, 3%), SKYW (new, 2.9%), CNO (2.0%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts:
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3577 (today's high will define stop)
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound,
1.5602 ave. (today's high will define stop)

Options (relevant accounts): 0.4%,
Sept GM 2.00 puts, paid 1.57

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Ruff and No-Tumble


Volume is running at a higher clip today and leadership is still rallying. So even though the market's overall gains are subtle, under the surface things remain firm.

For now.

I took body shots being net-short most of yesterday, but today is more than making up for it. I made adjustments, both yesterday and earlier today, but I'm still keeping things close to market neutral (although my longs are high-beta).

If oil prices and the Euro vs. Dollar stall-out here, I think the market will soon stall as well. Look for this. If these keep rallying, I'll keep looking for leadership names breaking out of nice set-up consolidations and key them long.

ASIA is the breakout of the day today (highly ranked stock within a highly-ranked and rising relative-strength group, breaking out of a nice looking 6.5-wk base, on a volume pace now about 3.5x's normal). It's less than perfect, but reasonable. Perfect is when RS runs to a new high ahead of the price (RS here is a little below the previous high, even though stock price is now at a NH; so, a negative divergence there); and volume would be nicer if it were running greater than 4x's normal (which it may still manage if it surges last hour). I like above 4x's ave. vol. for an indication of power in a breakout. I'm not complaining, but as such I didn't increase beyond my initial 5% attack as it broke above the 18.63 pivot earlier this session. I hold this much still and will how well it follows through.

SNDA is breaking out today as well. I didn't add from my existing position though, as the base is less than 5-weeks old and volume is not much better than 2x's average. Often it is best to trade out when there is a low-volume breakout (especially given that the previous base was extended in price), but this name has been so powerful in the past I will give it greater respect; risk losing some of the meaty gains there.

CYOU I added to earlier when it was still down on the day, since SNDA had begun exploding up and it made sense CYOU would follow. Better lucky than dumb sometimes. I'm a bit of both, which is why I out-perform most market geniuses.

Also, I'm trading MDT short following earnings released this morning; paying me a small dividend for the 400 some-odd hours I spent updating my working short list posted last night. Scroll down if you dare.

All these boring trades are being spit live via Twitter (for educational purposes only); if you come here only for the pictures then you are on the right page. Otherwise all of this is old news by now.

Blah blah blah - when is the market going to top, right? Watch the Euro. If it turns the equity market should soon follow.

But may as well grab what it is giving in the meantime. The rally may out-live all of us for all I know. That's not a recommendation however. Gotta be too late to make money now. There's only an hour left on the session.

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net long (plays 1.06-to-1 net long considering leveraged short etf's), 56% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.2%), SNDA (6.6%), ASIA (new, 5.3%), WNR (5.3%), DRI (3.8%), PEET (2.8%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (reduced to 4.9%; Russell2k Dbl-short), STRA (5.3%), AIPC (4.1%), BKE (3.5%), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short), CNO (2.2%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts:
-Covered SPX Jun today, 904.50, from 911.75 last night
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3577 (no stop at this moment)
-Short 10% Jun BR Pound today,
1.5499 (no stop at this moment)

Options (relevant accounts): 0.4%,
Sept GM 2.00 puts, paid 1.57

Monday, May 18, 2009

Expanded List of Eligible Shorts

I'm still calling this an Expanded list, but today's rally knocked-off quite a few groups. The updated screen is based on industry groups demonstrating declining relative strength and the individual names within come from me looking over a thousand or so charts (which is why I'm about to get bitter). This is my working list for potential shorts. It is only a list. Don't go shorting any of these, let me have them to myself. Didn't you notice the market is rallying? Did you think you can short this market and actually make a profit? Wise guy.

My favorites off the top, here and now, are: SKYW; HA; HAS (HASbroken); AIPC; NCI; DOX (enter below 21.31); ACIW (thin); a handful of the auto-equip makers and almost every medical-related name below (ONXX, OSIP, GILD, BAX, etc.).

But don't do anything I do - don't even bother to look at this thing. Get a job, come home and watch re-runs of Cramer for picks. At least you'll still have a check to cash.

Expanded List of Eligible Shorts (from industry groups declining in relative-strength):

Transportation-Airline:
SKYW
HA; 436% debt
UAUA
LCC
CAL; enter below 10.82; 999% debt
AMR
DAL; 999% debt
ALK

Transport-Air Freight:
UPS
FDX

Auto/Truck-Original Equip:
GNTX
BWA
ALV; enter below 26.48
MGA; enter below 31.05
WBC; enter below 17.34
JCI

Commcl Svcs-Schools:
STRA; 27% short int; 1.1% yield, ex-divd 22May
EDU; below 56.00
DV
APOL
ESI; 12% short int.
APEI
COCO; 16.5% short int.
CECO; 13% short int.

Leisure-Toys/Games/Hobby:
HAS
MAT

Food-Flour & Grain:
AIPC; enter below 28.50

Medical-Biomed/Biotech/Genetics:
ONXX; enter below 26.72
OSIP; 13% short int.
GILD
ALXN; 10% short int.
CELG
GPRO
MYGN
CBST, enter below 16.65
VRTX; 11% short int.

Medical-Products:
BCR
BAX
MDT; reports 19May, b4 open

Medical-Nursing Homes:
SUNH, 179% debt
KND

Medical-Whlsle Drug/Supply:
MCK
CAH

Commcl Svcs-Healthcare:
RX

Computer-Sftwr-Medical:
ATHN; enter below 30.74; 17% short int.

Computer-Sftwr-Financial:
ACIW (thin)

Computer-Sftwr-Security:
SYMC

Computer-Tech Svcs:
MANT; enter below 40.37
IBM; enter below 106.82
DOX; enter below 21.31

Telecom-Svcs:
T
VZ
FTR
WIN

Leisure-Movies:
RGC; enter below 12.43
DISCA; enter below 19.00

Cosmetics/Personal Care:
CHTT; 17% short int.
AVP; below 25.48
WTW; below 26.53
IFF; below 32.58

Beverages-Alcoholic:
CEDC; below 25.15

Metal Proc-Fabrication:
BOOM; enter below 17.22
TKR; 2.3% yield, ex-dvd 20May
WOR; enter below 16.00
KALU; enter below 30.30
GNA; enter below 6.67

Machinery-Tools:
KMT; enter below 18.57
LECO
ATU; enter below 13.12

Commcl Svcs-Consulting:
NCI; enter below 15.00
WW
HURN; enter below 45.80; 12% short int.
FCN; below 53.50; 10% short int.

Aerospace/Defense:
NOC; enter below 49.40
RTH
BA; enter below 46.45

Aerospace/Defense Equip:
ORB
TDY
HXL; enter below 10.30
ESL

Electronic-Military Systems:
LLL; enter below 79.65
AVAV; enter below 29.76; 10% short int.
FLIR; enter below 26.65

Apparel-Shoes Mfg:
DECK
NKE; enter below 52.08
KSWS (thin)

Bldg-Mobile/Mfg RV:
WGO
THO

Bldg-Wood Prds:
WY
LPX; enter below 4.19

Retail/Whlsle-Bldg Prds:
TITN (thin)
FAST

Banks-Northeast:
PBCT
FULT; enter below 6.72
NPBC; 12% short int.
STBA; thin; 12% short int.
MTB; enter below 51.80; short int. 15%
VLY; enter below 14.00

Banks-Southeast:

SNV; enter below 4.25
WTNY; enter below 14.12
BPOP; enter below 3.65

Banks-Super Regional:
NTRS
KEY
RF; enter below 7.55
CMA; enter below 22.65

Financial Svcs-Misc:
HRB
NDAQ; enter below 20.20
AXP; 507% debt
EZPW; enter below 11.99
GPN; enter below 32.12
JTX; reports 28May, after close
PAY; enter below 6.84; 362% debt

Finance-Savings and Loan:
NYB; 14% short int.
HCBK; enter below 13.45

Insurance-Brokers:
AOC
MMC; enter below 20.45

Quick Update on Position

While India is generally not a major driver for our markets, it was disconcerting to wake up net-short and see that market up 17% following election news. India traded for something like 40 seconds before halting for the day.

I'm not getting destroyed (down 1.25% at this writing), but given the resumed murky action I am now getting smaller. Shorts in general are questionable at the moment, yet the long-side still leaves much to be desired. On the day the tape is very firm, though not extreme, while volume on the rally is light, declining from Friday's level.

Murky.

Given the mixed paint I'm taking a shoot-first approach at the moment, culling out any position for almost any reason which calls that play into question. Details are posting via Twitt.

I will now post the updated eligible-shorts list tonight, although I will work to get it out sooner if the rally stalls-out. Keep that breadth baited - you'll get it before it's too late.

Total Position: 1.10-to-1 net short (plays 1.45-to-1 net short considering leverage), 50% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.2%), SNDA (5.9%), WNR (5.2%), DRI (3.7%), PEET (2.8%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (reduced to 5.2%; Russell2k Dbl-short), STRA (5.0%), AIPC (4.4%), BKE (3.5%), USB (reduced to 3.2%), SRS-long (3.0%; US Real Est. Dbl-short), CNO (1.9%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: No Current Position
-Covered SPX Jun Wednesday 880.75, from 912.75
-Covered Jun Euro today 1.3485, from 1.3585

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Quicknote


Working on the updated shortlist, should post late tonight.
...get outside!

[Edit: not able to finish the updated (expanded) short list tonight. Going for a nap now; will post tomorrow]

Friday, May 15, 2009

Night Gallery (hunt and gather)




Bellow Mellow (underwater basket weaving)

Still I refuse to post my thoughts concerning this pullback. But I remain sweet on Trish.

Her highest octave this morning was coincident with the highest prices on the day - imagine that:

"The market is off to the races today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 44 points!"

44 points is a full half-percent. As I write this, we're down however...a full half-percent.

I know I'm stretching here, but I promised yesterday to show some value (Trish-value). It's a relatively quiet option-expiration session thus far. Trish was never likely to hit a home-run today. She did her standard best. I calculate CNBC and I are roughly even then on the day; some modest compensation received in exchange for having to listen to this barb.

Something's got to pay.

Regarding the current position here, while I did shift away from an aggressive short stance (late Wednesday/early Thursday), I've yet to really cover that side of my position (I had added leadership longs for balance and have not yet covered much in the way of shorts; the reason I am up to 76% invested).

These pivot longs are continuing to work thus far and fortunately for me are out-performing my shorts (in terms of percentage gained), so I have not yet been hit on this mkt-bounce higher (even though I've remained more short than long (and long-winded, sorry)).

If we deteriorate much further the second half today, I will look to lighten the weaker longs to prepare for Monday. Monday's following Op-ex tend towards dreadful when/if the Friday expiration goes poorly.

What's got to pay?

It's Friday my reader friend. I can't leave before the close, since I'm babysitting this tidy group below. But ring that bell in a few hours and I am out the door, ready to roil!

36 hours of spearing, searing, pelting and svelting.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net short (plays 1.85-to-1 net short considering leverage), 76% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.3%), SNDA (5.9%), WNR (5.1%), NFLX (4.1%), PMCS (3.7%), DRI (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (10.8%; Russell2k Dbl-short), AAPL (7.6%), USB (6.4%), STRA (5.1%), AIPC (4.5%), PZZA (4%), BKE (3.4%), SRS-long (3.3%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: Covered SPX Jun Wednesday 880.75, from 912.75; Remain short 40% Jun Euro FX, from 1.3585

Thursday, May 14, 2009

CNBCeethe (value of the anti-genius)

I most certainly still, do not wish to post my thoughts on this pullback.

Days like today are a little funny for me. Not funny ha-ha, but funny strange.

On the one hand, I am forced to neutralize my position some (I cannot keep aggressively short as the market begins to firm). On the other hand though, I want to fire wicked-short, almost out of spite. Thus my actions contradict my desires. The stuff piss and vinegar is made of.

Someone has to pay.

First, in terms of positioning, outlook and the general reason some of you follow this blurb - I have shifted more towards neutral and will continue shifting as long as the market continues firming. The tactic so far has been to add leadership longs, at what may turn out to be decent pivot-entries (so far so good, though not entirely perfect). Late yesterday I did unload short SP500 futures and I did hot-dog out and back into SRS today, saving almost 4% of the decline in that play. But otherwise I have so far held onto shorts (mainly because they are so far working and if we stall-out again soon, they'll continue to work further).

As a consequence of all this, my total size is now greater than 70% (am I boring you yet?), but I am leaning less than 2-1 net short (down from nearly 5-1 net short at one point yesterday, including leveraged 2x's etf's).

New longs include: SNDA, PMCS, NFLX, PEET and addt'l CYOU.
New shorts include BKE and AIPC
Follow my Twittspit for details and further actions.

Back to the spite...

Since I cannot say much more about the market, I may as well preach. Value, my friends, is everywhere. You don't know this, because you don't know how to look for it. For example, I listen incessantly to CNBC. This has been true for years. And Years. This has contributed to a constitution of ever-increasing bile, surging slowly and steadily over too many decades. This is delicate. Unless steam is carefully and dutifully released I am in grave danger of blowing massive harry's. A projectile of bezoared chunks and punching of liquid crystal displays; whereby TV-heads with toxic eloquence finally, ultimately, send me beyond the gilded edge.

Think I'm kidding?

Seriously, imagine the stress of trading markets for a living. Then imagine listening to these numb-yuks while going about your day - every day! You might ask why do it? I know my family is curious. It's a decent question, surely.

I do it for value. There is so much value (in all the wrong places), that I'd be a fool (translation: a sane man) to dismiss it. I'm not going to trade like this and give up that edge. The edge of the anti-genius.

I've spoken of Cramer, so let's leave him out of this one. That value is simple to understand (Cramer gooses stocks higher, giving a temporary, artificial boost and thus an edge by going the other way). But there is better value. And if you have read this far then I suppose I'll let you in on it. However (I caught you moving to the edge of your seat, ha!), since I don't have all day to ramble for bleeding ever, all for your benefit (not true, since I admitted already I need to valve-off some of this bile) I am merely going to paste my IM's with my East Coast contingent from earlier today. This gets across the value I'm teasing you so far about (although in the end it is still a tease, since there is there is no specific gem for today. I will follow-up though, hopefully tomorrow, or at least as soon as it shines next. Did that make sense? I'm telling you about the gems that come forth, but there is no new gem currently beheld - stay tuned)

[exoquarx is me and Eastcrow's name has been modified; to protect the innocent]...

(exoquarx): turn up cnbc. you hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): got it. sell your house short? who is that guy larry?
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): dont ask
(exoquarx): reagan administration
(exoquarx): gin soaked
(exoquarx): that's not the voice i mean
(exoquarx): this other guy here is the gov'ts patsy (steve leisman)
(exoquarx): the 2nd head from L is actually smart. ignore her.
(exoquarx): Leisman is like a harvard football jock
(exoquarx): but couldnt get into harvard
(exoquarx): they call him their chief economist - which means chief hack.
(Eastcrow): that laugh from larry is something else - new high euro
(exoquarx): ok, bought another restaurant after all. that group leading the day tho
(exoquarx): there she is again - hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): y. i like cpki
(exoquarx): yuk
(Eastcrow): pinapple pizza? Invented in calif
(exoquarx): PZZA going 2b a short soon as well
(exoquarx): you hear the woman asking questions now?
[Trish Reagan]
(Eastcrow): y
(exoquarx): cnbc always has one of these (almost always)
(exoquarx): a tv personality who is now reporting on the mkts
(Eastcrow): oh actualy cpki not looking so good now...
(exoquarx): garbage stock
(Eastcrow): garbage pizza
(exoquarx): ANYtime you hear this woman actually reveal an opinion about the mkt ...
(exoquarx): go the other way
(exoquarx): it's magic
(exoquarx): guy talking now, you mentioned, has studied mkts his whole life
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): and drunk a lot of gin
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(Eastcrow): really? she like a cramer short?
(exoquarx): no. more magical than cramer short
(exoquarx): cramer moves the stock and that gives you the edge
(exoquarx): this idiot has no clue and when she 'gets-it' and spouts an opinion (or starts shrieking about how amazing something is) get ready for the other direction
(exoquarx): this is religion, spiritual, magic
(exoquarx): unbelievable and totally accurate, in reverse
(exoquarx): when the tv-types who know NOTHING reveal an opinion about the mkt
(exoquarx): you can look for setups the other direction
(exoquarx): this plays on the idea that once everyone has figured it out the move is over
(exoquarx): similar to when the mkt makes cover of Time/Newsweek; move is over
(exoquarx): or at least ready to counter
(Eastcrow): u see the uber bear? Dow to 1000 guy?
(exoquarx): wasnt listening to him, ...the guy just now? missed it
(exoquarx): but my ear is tuned to her, believe me
(Eastcrow): he predicted that the dow was going to 1000
(exoquarx): wow, that's my prediction. back to early 80's; 25 yrs of support there
(exoquarx): what is the driver, he say?
(exoquarx): nuclear?
(exoquarx): he needs nuclear
(exoquarx): big ugly war
(exoquarx): no more people
(exoquarx): doubt he said that tho
(exoquarx): the guys who know something are less useful really
(exoquarx): not that this guy knows anything. i dont know him
(exoquarx): if they are really smart , then i listen
(exoquarx): there's a few
(exoquarx): thank god
(exoquarx): otherwise i'm more interested in the anti-genius
(exoquarx): especially when they get inspired
(exoquarx): this one is beyond annoying
[Trish Reagan again]
(exoquarx): and knows nothing
(exoquarx): more nothing than you think is possible
(exoquarx): anti genius
(exoquarx): those are the people to follow
(exoquarx): this is why i am so angry
(exoquarx): i listen to these people all day for year after year
(exoquarx): makes you want to bite a german shepard
(exoquarx): just to get the stress out
(exoquarx): she's a peach
(exoquarx): there was a women 10 and 15 yrs ago
(exoquarx): wow
(exoquarx): the best ever [Cannot remember her name]
(exoquarx): i could tell by her octave how to trade the mkt
(exoquarx): kind of like when SRS was at the high today
(exoquarx): her octave might go up
(exoquarx): she would drone, drone drone all day
(exoquarx): every day
(exoquarx): but when she began to shriek...
(exoquarx): it was a perfect trade the other way
(exoquarx): i found god
(exoquarx): that's kudlow again.
(exoquarx): gin gin gin
(exoquarx): gulp gulp gulp
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(exoquarx): no value
(Eastcrow): funny women on this show. are you talking about the one with the white blouse (br hair) not the blond in yellow?
(exoquarx): the one with the triangle for a nose
(exoquarx): not the blond
(exoquarx): i ignore her
(exoquarx): not smart enough /not dumb enough
(exoquarx): i mean the one who makes you think low of humanity when she starts squeaking
(exoquarx): i dont know what she's wearing
(exoquarx): i only have sound on
(exoquarx): can't take the pictures
(Eastcrow): lets see if she comes back. now is "power lunch" what ever that is
(Eastcrow): glup glup glup
(exoquarx): power lunch is good-morning america
(exoquarx): waste of time
(exoquarx): only reason to listen is in case news breaks
(exoquarx): otherwise a complete waste
(exoquarx): turn on channel 4 instead
(exoquarx): same shit
(exoquarx): coffee mugs should be in hand
(exoquarx): i want to punch them all
(exoquarx): cant even trade off them
(exoquarx): no value
(exoquarx): SNDA coming on now
...
(exoquarx): there she is
(exoquarx): big value
(exoquarx): triangle nose
(exoquarx): DGI is priced. not really trading tho
(exoquarx): priced 19. we couldnt get any shares - sucks
(Eastcrow): oh there is the one with the nose. to the right?
(exoquarx): dunno
(exoquarx): but i heard her just then
(exoquarx): coffee mug time
(exoquarx): zzzzzzzzz
(Eastcrow): well now I know why you are so screwed up - watching that show for so long.
(exoquarx): here...
(exoquarx): http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Video/080712/nn_regan_xtalk_080712.300w.jpg
(exoquarx): miss piggy
(exoquarx): trish regan
(exoquarx): nice name - trish
(exoquarx): pretty much useless today. no inspired gems
(exoquarx): see if she figures anything out tomorrow
[god willing]
Snort!