Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Exit Strategy (unloaded en masse)

Definitely a change of plans here as the market action has shifted to questionable/negative.

While I took body shots on the CYOU and SNDA pair yesterday, today I had my guard up, unloaded those two early, and then proceeded to hedge and unload countless others following the consumer confidence report.

Not that I see consumer confidence as so key - but it is the market reaction. A negative surprise AND striking a chord in the market is enough for a guy already looking for where to find the sidelines. July is a gentle month for me, as far as the market goes. We'll see if I can't drudge up enough action then elsewhere.

I'm left at the moment with four longs, married to none, stops tight in two and enough SDS to render myself net-short for the time being. I'm not looking to hold short, but today is rather defined, my entry there was decent enough and I don't yet see any reason not to hold the full throat until the end of day.

I'm on the Amalfi coast at moment, but somehow with a better connection than anything else this past week. Good day for it too, since I was quite active.

So ciao ciao for now, I'm heading for water. There's no big game in this particular sea, but at least I can't get too bit. I'll update further trades via Twittwatt, but those should be winding down for the time being. If/when the market pivots and drives higher, I might get involved. But I am only interested in July if it is one-way action. I should be out of SDS by today's close and sell most of the four remaining by endo of the week (which now I know is Thursday ;).

Total Position: 1.40-to-1 net-long (actually plays ~1.40-to-1 net-short, considering 2x's levered SDS), 25% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ARST (4.2%), LFT (3.8%), PEET (3.5%), MRVL (3.5%)

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (10.4%; SP500 dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represent being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Pom Payday

Arrived yesterday in Naples and heading to Pompeii now for the day (Vesuvio tomorrow). Overnight futures are down slightly but leadership has remained quite game at the same time that the overall market lumbers in a mild uptrend (my favorite type of action for simply holding onto to winning positions).

As long as this continues I can keep with the plan of holding into the July 4th holiday seasonal strength; with the idea of selling names on Thursday (2nd) [edited] and then early Monday (6th). Given the nature of the recent action (leadership growth behaving very strong under the otherwise quiet surface) there exists a reasonable chance we'll see a strong advance-day for the overall market somewhere in this time frame. If so, I may reduce on strength sooner, in the final 30 minutes of that session.

There are some hurdles, as always, and if we stumble to any significant degree I'll adjust the game-plan and lighten sooner. Potential game-changers include 1.) the potential that the end of the quarter Tuesday will mark short-term highs in leadership stocks; 2.) the monthly employment report due Thursday [edited]; and 3.) anything else which may develop AND strikes a chord in the market.

A final thing I have to be wary of is the possibility of failed breakouts turning into selling routs. Several of my positions now are either breaking-out or poised for a breakout. I live for such problems, but with life in the fast lane eyes must keep alert. If break-outs like RAX and PAR stall and turn below break-out pivot points, I'll let them go ahead of schedule. If SNDA breaks to a new high now, I will look to sell right into it (since the too-far-too-fast advance means the likelihood it will need further consolidation); while if CYOU breaks-out I will try to hang-in for the ride until Friday or Monday (as this one is less mature, it remains a beast so far, and almost any upside is possible.

In other words, neither CYOU nor SNDA has a reasonable base to break-out of just now, yet the younger CYOU has a better chance for getting even more disgusting. I've done well earlier in selling-out at the right moment and then hopping back on for more after pulling back, but on this particular juncture, given the calendar, the general trend and the fact that it has no business now being back to new highs again after such a brief consolidation, why should I get logical and conservative when this name acts like it still wants to surprise?

I expect few entries again this week, while I'm exploring past and future Volcanoes and ultimately then heading out into the Mediterranean. My Twitter works well enough for broadcasting changes in my position, but even those may come late now as I will miss chunks of time (though not opens and closes) and I'll be dealing largely with limit and stop orders intraday.

I'm off.

Total Position: 100% long, 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.1%), ASIA (5.5%), RAX (5.4%), SNDA (4.9%), WFT (4.7%), TQNT (4.2%), ARST (4.2%), NFLX (4%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.3%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Quick Bone from Rome

Keeping up as best I can posting, which has been zero this week. The connection at the hotel is unable to hold my trading programs open for more than 5 minutes at a time, so all efforts have been engaged with monitoring and trading; not commenting.

Anyway, I've so far kept the Twitter feed real-time, as that is quick and easy (lucky you).

My (Twitter) comment late yesterday after letting go all of my market hedge remains my push for now. That is that we saw a lower-volume market decline led by cyclicals, materials, golds, oils, steels (and whatnot) and that leadership yesterday had begun firming; suggesting the potential to now rally into the July 4th (US) holiday; the action in currency markets were another positive tell.

So far so good. If we fail, I may not be talking it up so much, but I will be scrambling somewhere, somehow, to get exposure reduced. Otherwise I am only letting go problems and attempting to hold-on and reduce into seasonal strength. I know that's cutting to the chase, leaving details as to why, how and what-if...but my time is measured more than words just now. I don't know anything more than I've said above anyway - I'm just following the market action and going with what I know (sans noise).

In the meantime I am stacking up quite a lot of Night Gallery material (Fems, Fiats and Fellini's). Few of you want to know about that, perhaps, but the photos are rich rich rich - like you would be if you had held on short!

Ciao ciao for now.

Total Position: 100% long, 45% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (5.4%), CYOU (5.1%), RAX (4.7%), SNDA (4.4%), TQNT (4.3%), NFLX (4%), ARST (3.9%), LFT (3.7%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Vesuviusness (leaving the country for now)

Apologies for the lack of recent posts, but get used to it Señor Chase - I'm about to blow this coup.

Tomorrow I leave for the land of Ferrari's, Fellini's and Fems. This year's version of my annual Rest-and-Refresh, Rot-not and Reconnoiter; well-east of Wall Street's. I'll be in Rome on Monday and climbing into volcanoes by the weekend.

I will do my best to upload along the way - understand that lava may be dormant from time to time.

My accounts currently hold 10 longs (roughly 48% of portfolios).
Each hold a single hedge, TWM (13.6% of portfolio).

-I let go anything which became questionable (oils for now and a gold position).
-Aside from PEET, I'm left with Tech and Internet (which frankly is acting best).
-I have a tight stop (presently) placed for the TWM-hedge near 41.50 (this is indeed tight, but Friday began very strong, gave up more than half the gains and then finished reasonably well; I feel rather confident that should Monday start-off strong, the market will drive higher throughout the session. I'm not calling for a strong Monday (slightly doubting it at moment), but only that after Friday's pivot-up and then slowing-down some, we will not give it up a second time if the market opens more than a little upward; hence the tight stop on the bench.
-I have stops in mind for every long, but frankly most of these are going to count only in the last 90 minutes of trading. For ex., ASIA may see a slice downward, but I don't want an open stop anywhere close since it may indeed recover the same day. Most stops I have open at moment are far away in price - the real bench is tighter, but if I cannot witness it live I need to give them until the final 90 min or so trading; dependent on volume, price action, RS, etc.
-I let go the SRS as the real estate muck (IYR) began taking out highs late Friday. SRS is higher beta and if the IYR runs higher now Monday, SRS will normally see a 5-15% decline (I don't want this name if going down). If the market looks bad though, SRS with a simultaneous stop placed is an easy way for me to neutralize pressure; hence if the world is for sale in the premkt on Monday, I may put SRS back-on here before the open.

At the moment I still think leadership is acting well, while the market is acting so-so (although it is acting better than the current perception out there, imo).

On Friday, July 3rd and Monday 6th, I'm looking to go light (sooner if the environment returns tricky or difficult). This is as I mentioned before - unload into seasonal strength...then take some rest unless the market continues steadily and measurably upward. I arrive in France then on July 7th. If the market is refusing to let me rest, I'll be there for it. If it is typical, quiet July fare, I'll stick with the plan of resting-up for the second half.

Adventures will be posted - even if trading is light. Get outside!

Total Position: 3.17-to-1 net-long (plays ~2.25-1 net-long considering levered TWM), 57% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (6.1%), CYOU (5.1%), RAX (5%), SNDA (4.4%), ARST (4.3%), TQNT (4.1%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (13.6%; Russell2k Dbl-short),
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell 2000)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Thursday, June 18, 2009


Unable to post today. Outlook and strategy for short-term (outlined yesterday) remains intact. Trades and/or changes in allocation will continue to post live on my Twittspace.

...you need to get outside more.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Potential Pivot Point (and a brief game plan)

Still quite busy here, but here is a synopsis now of how I hope to play things for the short-term period. If the market does not cooperate I will have to adjust, obviously. But so far so good...

Today's reversal may create a nice short-term pivot-low.

If so, we may manage to trend higher up into the end of Q-2 and onto the July 4th holiday. That would then provide good seasonal-strength selling opportunities on the Friday-to-Monday; 3rd-to-6th of July.

If not, I'm going to have to lighten-up, using today's lows (in most cases) for benchmarks. In this case I would begin getting defensive and very small, until the market shows better.

I let go a lot of the increased hedge today and at moment am only holding 5.4% SRS for that purpose.

I was down more than the broad market yesterday, even with hedges, as the growth names took it much worse than indices. Volume though was not heavy, nothing really broke significant support, the entire world was expecting this pullback at the same time that the charts of leadership names still look like they should be bought. I couldn't really see anything too ugly yesterday, so I just upped the hedge instead of selling names.

Finally, unless the month of July is a clear trend higher, I'm looking to play it very light, decompress some and get rested for the second-half of the year. I don't want to work hard if the environment of summer is at all choppy; as I have found again and again that a choppy summer environment is both tricky and difficult to prosper Normally, as a result, it is the best time to rest and refresh. By later in August I find the environment to be typically more playable and then September to January is generally money-time, as far as my historical performance.
That last part suggests I'm getting ready for extra-curricular activities. Thus, even if my trading gets boring by the time we hit July 4th, the hunt-and-kill reports posted here will hopefully suffice your personal bloodthirsty appetite.

Total Position: >10-1 net-long (plays >5-1 net-long considering levered SRS), 58% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (increased today, 6.9%), ASIA (6.1%), RAX (4.7%), SWN (4.5%), WFT (4.3%), SNDA (4.3%), TQNT (4.3%), ARST (4.1%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SRS-long (5.4%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the US Real Estate index)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Quicknote on my position

In retrospect I should of held onto the larger-sized hedges yesterday, as we're seeing further selling pressure today. That said I'm not completely naked and I have mentioned I will error on the bull side as long as the leadership charts continue to look positive.

Volume is running low and breadth is not so severe today. I'm having trouble reducing the number of longs, which is what I expect to do when weakness continues, because on a case by case basis I cannot see compelling reasons to sell. Tomorrow is Obama's speech regarding new financial reforms or whatnot, which could turn out to be a turning point; we'll see.

I did increase the SRS-hedge and I may go back to upping the TWM-hedge if necessary later in the session; instead of reducing names. And I am happy (oh boy!) to sell any longs breaking down, showing accelerating selling pressure, etc.

Brings a smile, doesn't it?

Dial 1050 for Chump

Total Position: 4.43-to-1 net-long (plays 2.22-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 68% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (6%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.5%, WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.5%), CYOU (increased today, 4.4%), SNDA (increased today, 4.3%), TQNT (reloaded today, 4.3%), ARST (4.1%), LFT (3.7%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), AU (2.9%), PAR (2.9%), JDSU (2%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (7.0%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (5.5%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Monday, June 15, 2009

Quicknote on Hedge, Wheel-O's and Cramer Dividends

I'm going to be a little busy this week, as such I'll be posting less. I will however continue to Spit-twitt new trades live.

We have something of a pullback, so I'll take a minute and explain how I am hedging for it. First, Friday ended much better here than it began, capped-off in the after-mkt by two lovely set-ups courtesy of Dr. Cramer. I got short HBAN up in the nethersphere (as high as 13.5% above the closing price) and I also got to unload my largest long, TQNT, also in the exosphere (6.325, greater than 9% above the closing price).

So while ravaged, bloody and bitten early Friday (somewhat), I got back to the cave with dignity and well, grace. More Kisses for Cramer. That guy that keeps on giving.

I just let go the Chinese hedge (FXP) and from here I will look to hold my (4) Chinese growth names (CYOU reloaded again today). If tomorrow is down further and there is no sign yet of a bid in the market, I'd prefer to reduce exposure and the number of longs, instead of re-loading another FXP-hedge.

I'm still holding TWM and SRS. Given the severe negative breadth on the day (volume however, is relatively low). I increased TWM intraday, but I expect to back-off the additional shares near the close (sooner if the market catches and keeps a bid). So while I'm closer to flat at the moment, in terms of exposure, I'll go into the night leaning around 3-1 net-long, depending.

If the market still lives, then by tomorrow we'll see something resembling strength. If we are ugly still tomorrow, I'll reduce exposure by shrinking the number of long positions (holding winners first); let the remaining hedges go then according to the action, exposure-long, etc.

And certainly, I don't mean to suggest that the market cannot begin trending downward now (I just need to see it and respond before giving up the easier job of buying leadership in a good market instead). Who can blame me for that?

In fact, my go-to voodoo guy is spinning perpendicular right now and that has me a little nervous (not kidding). The illustrated chart above comes from TX Tornado's post The Wheel. Apparently, price, time and areas of Da Vinci influence are are all in harmony (my description). (SPX 950 was tested on 6/5 at a time/price which was 90 degrees from the 3/6 square and previous resistance).

I don't know what any of that means. Frankly though, I don't need to. When the universe lines up its ducks and starts playing Wheel-O with the markets, I keep my guard up.

Let's see what transpires.

Total Position: 3-to-1 net-long (plays 1.5-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 66% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (increased today, 6.3%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.7%, WFT (reloaded today, 4.6%), RAX (4.3%), ARST (4.3%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.5%), CYOU (reloaded today, 3.1%), SNDA (2.9%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (13.7%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Night Gallery (bulls don't bite)

[I recommend playing both vids at same time; sound on...]

Friday, June 12, 2009

Pelted (shift towards neutral)

While I've been fiendishly attempting to neutralize exposure, reducing names and adding hedges, my brand of longs today are taking it worst on the tape; especially Chinese-growth ADR's.

Whereas earlier in the week leadership growth was rising, regardless of the rest of the market, today the Dow (for example) is relatively flat while leadership is giving it up considerably.

The market has teeth - even for me.

On the positive side, a slam-thrust down following strong, lengthy moves higher can be bullish action (in that the first hard slice lower very often marks the short-term lows for such stocks going forward). But that is hardly worth praising out-loud when you're being taken out back and flayed. I have somewhat neutralized my position, but frankly the beta of my longs is higher than the hedges, so dollar-for-dollar I'm still a little more long than it looks currently below.

Also encouraging, the reversal on ARST following last night's eps report looms positive. Forward guidance there was an issue, but the market has a different outlook there.

I'll incrementally cower out of this stance if things worsen from here. Otherwise if it does develop such that today's lows on the growth names look to be holding, I'm wearing them from here.

Lovely furs of growth in that case.

Total Position: 2-to-1 net-long (plays 1.18-to1 net-long considering levered TWM, FXP, SRS), 61% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ASIA (4.5%), RAX (4.5%), ARST (reduced today, 4.4%), LFT (increased today, 4.4%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.6%), SNDA (3.1%), AU (3%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size):
MA (6.6%), TWM-long (6.6%; Russell2k Dbl-short), FXP-long (4.8%, Xinhua China Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.5%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell2k index)

Futures Accounts: out of Long Russell-2k Sept, 528.25 ave. (+3.2)

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Quicknote (increased exposure long)

All noise aside, action remains mostly favorable and the next potential catalyst hits now at the top of the hour. I've been increasing long-side exposure further; adding to longs and covering anything short. I would not be surprised to see a rush now to Dow 9k.

That's not a call, just an observation. A rally in equities at the conclusion of a big week of Treasury auctions is not unusual and internals are leaning mostly firm ahead of this 30-yr. result; and this market has resisted selling while leadership has rocked.

I have a large number of names long (too many, arguably). As such if I get caught on the wrong side today I'll look to hedge quickly by shorting the weakest major index on the day (NDX at this point).

Re CYOU: the stock lauched about 11% higher within a few hours yesterday (that trade made my day, to say the least). The group is lagging today, however and CYOU remains extended. I don't have a plan to re-enter this session (at this point) and I am looking at this now with 1-2 day horizons when/if I do; until there is a bit of a consolidation (or until it sours).

When you can bag 10% in a few hours on a hot-money darling, the environment for stocks is not all that bad. Snort!

Blah blah - damn treasury bonds about to rock my world - Cyou later...

Total Position: 100% net-long, 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ARST (reports tonight, increased today to 6.6%), TQNT (5.5%), WFT (5%), SWN (4.8%), RAX (4.7%), ASIA (4.6%), LFT (increased today, 4.4%), MRVL (new today, 3.7%), PEET (3.7%), SNDA (3.3%), AU (3.1%), JDSU (2.1%), FNSR (reports tonight, 2%)

Currently Short (according to size): NA

Futures Accounts: 20% Long Russell 2k Sept, 525.05 ave.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Holding Long (now hella wrong)

I hesitate to say I'm down much less today than this position gained yesterday, since that sort of statement flies from lips of blindfolded fools standing before squads of itchy fingers.

All the same, I'm playing a bit of rope-a-dope here. Daring this market to shoot me.

The Fed's beige book was just released; following the lack-luster 10-yr auction results; following the negative reversal in equities this morning; following coffee stains mounting my rotting teeth.

Nothing more brilliant to say than that, sorry. I may end up hedging and/or reducing before the day is through. If we're not making lower-lows in the final 90 minutes of the day however, I expect to hold pretty much pat.

I re-bot CYOU today under 40. It's still extended, but it's still a monster; until it isn't.

Accounts are back to flat now on the day as the market catches a small bid. I'm really in for it now perhaps. Twitter the fool if you care to follow.

Total Position: 6-to-1 net-long, 56% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ARST (3.6%), RAX (4.2%), WFT (4.7%), ASIA (4.7%), SWN (4.6%), PEET (3.8%), CYOU (reloaded today 39.96, 3.3%), SNDA (3.4%), AU (3.2%), LFT (2.3%), JDSU (2.2%), FNSR (1.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
ONXX (4.1%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Anger Ménage (bear market for fish)

Sick-positive action in leadership stocks today. Days like this I don't want to talk too much, so I won't. I save the rants for moments less pristine.

Zero Hedge drummed-up a nice sign-of-the-times video. This guy's not unlike Cramer, really. He just takes a different view on green bleeping shoots...

When I saw that I immediately recalled Tuff Fish, an infamous online poker player from back in the Party Poker days...

Total Position: 5.5-to-1 net-long, 51% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ASIA (4.7%), SWN (4.6%), WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.2%), PEET (3.8%), ARST (3.6%), SNDA (3.4%), AU (3.2%), CYOU (out for now, 42.12)

Currently Short (according to size):
ONXX (4.1%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: no position

Monday, June 08, 2009

Fuzzy Bear Trap? (quicknote on the new week)

Action is further negative so far today, following Friday's reversal lower, but there is nothing yet overly concerning in either market internals or the behavior in leadership stocks.

I wouldn't suggest we're good to reverse higher today and things could deteriorate further certainly, but I am not against adding-back to longs on the weakness. Volume is declining from Friday's pace (constructive) and neither market breadth, Up-to-Down volume ratios, numbers of new 52-wk lows, or really anything else I am seeing point to an imminent rout. Certainly, the ever-bear camp of SKF/FAZ/SRS, etc. is not getting a ton of relief just yet. Tomorrow is another day; further weakness would cause me to increase defense; one step at a time; we'll see.

Easy game ;)

As far as hedges, I shifted from SDS to TWM (as the Russell2k is weakest of the majors on the session).

Total Position: 2.18-to-1 net-long (plays 1.40-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM); 56% invested
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell2k index)

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (re-increased today, 4.8%), ASIA (4.5%), SWN (4.5%), RAX (4.2%), WFT (4.2%), PEET (3.8%), ARST (3.4%), SNDA (reloaded, 3.1%), AU (reloaded, 3.1%), CYOU (reloaded, 3%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (new, 9.9%; Russell2k Dbl-short), ONXX (4%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: covered 20% short Jun NDX, ave. 1476.50; from 1495.75 ave Friday

Sunday, June 07, 2009

Working Longs (should leadership still paint positive)

While the market itself reversed lower on the perceived-positive news, in the end leadership stocks did not act badly on Friday. I'm market-neutral, or even a little net-short going into the new week (shift from Friday), but I'm not against getting right back long if action tomorrow is compelling or positive.

That could work several ways. Example, if the general market direction is further-negative, and yet leadership stocks are behaving well, I'll hold onto hedges while adding-back to longs at the same time. If both general direction and action in leadership is alive and snorting, then I'll let go of short-hedges simultaneous to adding-back long. Yet if both leadership and the general market are accelerating negative, I may add to the hedge while adding, holding, or unloading leadership, depending how severe the internals dictate.

If of these these happen, I'll make it up, deal with it then and convey via Twitter. Get to bed.

Here then is the updated working-list of leadership-longs for the early-week:

Internet-Content [group is extended; would be interesting near-term on a hard slice lower]:

Internet-Network Solutions:

Computer-Data Storage:
NTAP (enter above 20; possibly lower, but depending)

Semiconductor Mfg:
TSRA (extended)
STEC (extended)

Computer-Security Sftwr:
ARST (remaining group slipping rank-wise lately)

Telecom-Wireless Equip:

Telecom-Fiber Optics:
FNSR (pennystock; enter above .74)


TECD (extended)
SNX (extended; may need to build handle)

Oil & Gas-Machinery-Equip:

Metal Ores-Gold/Silver:

Computer Networking (group slipping in RS):
BBOX (thin)

Other Groups showing increased RS rank (not able to compile individual names of these tonight):
Metal Ores
-Oil&Gas - Field Svcs
-Oil & Gas - US Exploration
-Oil & Gas - Canadian Exploration -Leisure Svcs -Energy - Other
-Retail/Whlsle Food

Friday, June 05, 2009

Killing it Neutral (shift toward mkt-neutral)

While I see no reason at moment to position bearishly. my guard went up today. I was quite busy early, shifting towards market-neutral.

The most troubling action came from the currency markets, in my opinion. On the employment report we saw a big drop in the dollar (rally in the Euro, Pound, etc. at the same time), but that was followed by bigger, and frankly nasty reversals. At this writing the dollar is up significantly and holding, treasuries were slammed, gold is hobbling and (at least) oil is flat now on the day.

This might seem insignificant (and perhaps it will turn out that way), however the currency markets have been leading equities for some months now, by roughly two-days. Two days ago the dollar saw a sharp rally and now today it is following through and we've developed something of an uptrend. If equities are going to remain linked to the currency leadership, then upside for stocks may now be limited; we'll see.

Most traders like to make a lot of of a little (especially those who write and post!) and I don't want to make a big deal out of this. I will react and respond however to changes in the market. If stocks cannot sell-off now, I would be happy to keep pushing leadership long. Yet if we start deteriorating, I'd like to let you in on my latest hunt-and-thrust images and fire like a maddened maniac short. Faster Pussycat Kill Kill - Race the fastest pussycats an they'll beat you...to death.

We'll see.

That's the long way to say that I'm closer to market neutral now and ready to react in either direction, depending. zzzzz

CYOU and SNDA (NTES as well in that group, but I didn't have that one on this rally) are animals still, but they are quite extended at moment and I let them go on the up-open. In the case of CYOU, that lovely powered only 50.2% from the low 10-trading days ago to the early high this morning. I left 2% of that gain behind, having sold too low at 40.08; snort!

I'm still shaking off the 4000 flushes here (having sneezed over 500 times in 3 days now) and I'm heading out for warm warm waters, looking to kill something. Be sure to tune in over the weekend to check-up on the spoils. I've invited Trish, but she's too sophisticated for my kind and currently not answering emails. Her weekends I imagine are spent tanning, shoplifting red sweaters and studying the markets (right!). She's certainly not getting out to Devil's Golf Course to exfoliate with me anytime soon to.

Nail my tongues to the floor why don't you.

Total Position: 1.73-to-1 net-long (plays 1.14-to-1 net-long considering levered SDS); 53% invested
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the sp500 index)

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (4.6%), SWN (4.6%), WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.3%), PEET (3.9%), ARST (new, 3.4%), TQNT (reduced today, 3.3%),

Currently Short (according to size):
SDS-long (new, 8.5%; SP500 Dbl-short), ONXX (new, 4.1%), MYGN (new, 3.9%)

Futures Accounts: 10% short Jun NDX, from 1497.00

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Nicole and Dimed (out of currency shorts)

I'm in a semi-conscious state. Body aches flaring, nasal-drip flowing, delirious, sleep-deprived eyes waxing, wincing.

You know where this is going. In spite of physical drudgery, I'm free now from Euro-slaps and British Poundings. I'm camping happy.

Once again I slept (sort of) near my machine, watching over my currency shorts like a mother giraffe watches the runt. Talk about a brain drain - all that attention just to try to keep one ugly duckling from not afloating.

I'm fresh, I'm clean, I'm out of that hell and chomping at my psyche bit once more.

Now that I'm not so stuck I've released my jaws from this beast (I told you throughout it wasn't worth it, but I'm a foolish fighter sometimes; capable of attacking great whites...until it hurts). The primary goal of the futures accounts traded here is to push index futures on days where the action is either all-good or all-hell-breaking-loose. Frankly, I'm a better trader at that sort of thing and this currency smack is the latest reminder (I'm a better player than I am a gambler). If you see me Twitting trades in currencies, it had better be a daytrade, and going with the direction of that day's strong momentum. Otherwise I give you permission to rip the sickly, Linton-esque giraffe fuzzflesh from my bony backside and feed it to my stronger brethren. Let someone else make the overnight money!

Equities? Oh yeah, that's going well - what's so interesting about that? Yesterday was the beginning of the much-expected and logical pullback that we all considered so logical and likely. Too bad for you it was over before the day was through, eh?

If you get your opportunity now I suspect you'll wish you hadn't. Which is the same as saying that when this market lets you in easy the move higher is done.

I've studied this pain thing for some thousand years. I do my best to step over the dead bodies of my trading past and prosper now instead. I'll step over you, if you let me; and if I'm really jamming I can step over myself and still be home in time for supper. You are shutting off CNBC because it is inane and annoying. But I am listening to Trish Regan as I write, because she speaks so inversely eloquent I could kiss her all under. Kind of like the big lady that married the really really rich guy who was like one or two hundred years old. She had nothing but smiles for him I'm sure.

You know how the story ends. Okay not that story. No oily dog's going to take my breath away.

-Beast out

Total Position: 100% net-long; 48% invested

Currently Long (according to size): AU (5.5%), CYOU (5.1%), TQNT (new yesterday, 4.7%), ASIA (4.6%), SWN (4.6%), PZZA (4.4%), WFT (4.4%), RAX (4.3%), PEET (3.8%), SNDA (3.3%), NTAP (3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current positions

Futures Accounts: no current position (re-shorted both Euro and BR Pound last night and covered on the ECB news/non-news which hit those markets early this morning)

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Pullback and Fire (adding exposure long)

Fresh from hell (my own personal blend of aches, pains and middle of the night BR Poundings) I am fairly active today; adding long exposure now on the pullback.

I came in with a bit of a hedge and I find the action mostly formidable thus far. Thus I've got gumption to step-in and grab shares of leadership stocks.

It is still a bull market, until it isn't, and at moment every participant's mother's uncle has been crying-out expecting a pullback here. You know how that story goes (something like this as far as I seize it).

I'm buying like a young man - I'm 60 again!

Oil groups are getting slammed good and I like buying the first hard slice lower following a strong rally; and oil groups rallied significantly recently, in relative-strength rank as well as price.

-Re: CYOU...monster; holding out for close to 40 and will trade-out for near-term.
-Re: SNDA...monster; reversal higher on earnings; will look to hold the reduced position.
-Re: SWN...oil groups have been rising fastest in terms of RS; SWN from Oil/Gas-US Exploration, now ranked 25 (out of 197 ranked groups), from 95 a few weeks ago.
-Re: WFT...from #12 ranked Oil/Gas-Machinery/Eq (was ranked 28 a few weeks ago)
-Re: RAX...newer, tech play from Internet/Network Solutions group (rank now at 20, intraday, from above 30 last week.

I have open orders for more - I'll continue spitting fills via Twitter. If I get caught with too many names and the pullback worsens, I'll hedge further. At the moment though accounts are flat on the day.

I'll continue to error on the long side until something truly breaks.

Total Position: 12.35-to-1 net long (plays 6.17-to-1 net short considering leveraged SKF); 45% invested

Currently Long (according to size): AU (5.4%), CYOU (5.3%), ASIA (4.7%), SWN (new, 4.5%), PZZA (4.5%), WFT (new, 4.2%), PEET (3.8%), SNDA (3.3%), NTAP (new, 3.1%), RAX (new, 3%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SKF-long (new, 3.2%; Fncl's Dbl-short); covered JPM from yesterday
(Note: inverse-ETF SKF represents being dbl-short the PCSE Financial index)

Futures Accounts: no current position (currencies were covered near the top, naturally; demonstrating why it is never really worth fighting a strong trend; but who didn't know that already?)

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

CYOU (fyi)

CYOU is now quite extended, having moved 43% from the low 7-trading days ago to today's intraday high (27.10 t0 38.73).

I have begun trading out and back-in again, but I am looking to keep at least a reduced position if it refuses to consolidate and just continues driving (not out of the question).

Group-neighbor SNDA reports eps tonight. Assuming I haven't exited again before the close, I will look to let-go remaining CYOU shares on that news; then buy back at the first possible set-up (SNDA was reduced here yesterday).

Quick Update on Position

I reduced some positions early yesterday (nothing dramatic) and added a partial hedge at the close with SKF. I swapped gold stocks (out of LIHR and into AU). I'm a little under the weather and may keep commentary light, but am continuing to convey trades live via Twitter.

Total Position: 10.4-to-1 net long (plays 5.2-to-1 net short considering leveraged SKF); 37% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.4%), AU (5.6%), PZZA(4.5%), ASIA (4.3%), PEET (3.4%), SNDA(3.2%), MRVL(3%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SKF-long (new, 3.2%; Fncl's Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF SKF represents being dbl-short the PCSE Financial index)

Futures Accounts:
-Short 20% Jun Euro 1.4138 ave.
-Short 10% Jun BR Pound, 1.6180