Monday, January 25, 2010
Momentarily Net-long (but eye still on the prize)
Staring at an emptying, once-full house of glass playing cards, I've shifted to net-long, but only for a brief moment.
The reasons are two-fold: First, there is no blood (as of yet) on the Street today, following the 3-day thrashwhack last week. And second, getting a little long affords me the ability to re-hammer aggressively short from here.
The latter is especially important, since my first priority now is to participate in the downside. Corrections have a way of getting folks focused on bounces, even though the waves lower have much better energy. Getting a little long, momentarily, gives me my personal psychological edge to continue pressing sell buttons sooner rather than later; instead of looking at "safer" or more comfortable, "logical" places to enter short.
We're in a correction - I'm not in any internal debate about that. And interestingly, on the bear-only blogs today (like Friday, Thursday, etc.), I see more discussion about where we will bounce, or where one might re-short, as opposed to folks being short now.
Selling strength is my operative still (covering emotional sell-offs the other mantra). There are technical and fundamental reasons for the market to work much lower still; I'm not going to get overly clever in how we get there. Corrections have a way of punishing early, and it's still early.
-Current Longs include: SWN (from today), HUM (from today) and TIE (from Friday)
-Current Shorts include: TWM-long, JPM
-30.5% total invested
Twittspitt for details
Adding short from here, I'm expecting to key on financials still, and re-increasing TWM (the Russell2k holds quite a few smaller financial names, fyi). Beyond that, I am hunting for industry groups (other than the financials) slipping the furthest in terms of relative strength; stay tuned.