Friday's market was one of those standard, epic-rare sessions whereby time slows to an eddying crawl, as psychology, volatility and rabidity culminate to spawn emotionally charged actions from both traders and investors alike.
This is where anti-genius reigns - where a heightened sense of stress almost insures ill decisions and inverse-perfection will run rampant (as in buying at the highs of a volatile session, only then to sell again at the day's low; perhaps to only buy-high again by the end).
It's days like this I know I found my proper path the day I started trading. It's days like this when work tastes fun.
If getting root canal were a career choice there would be days when that was fun too...but all too often punishment is a major part of the work day.
Lets not kid ourselves - the biz is bearish - even if it's a blessing when there is a culmination of emotional advise to get one through the more volatile times; to get to the other side of those trades!
Okay, now that I've made a horses ass out of myself it's time to get to the point at hand; to explain why I've become more and more quiet lately, and why brevity will be the new mantra at Centrifugal Deforest.
Going forward and except for off-days when I have enough time, spite and energy, I'm going to whittle posts down (even further) and convey nothing more than my current line in the market. I will continue to post trades real-time, via Twittspitt, but on pages here the reader will get little more than current position and some glossy imagery (yep, not going to give up the groovy pics). For now, until I get to where I'm teaching more than I'm performing, I'm leaving the current market outlook out of it.
This will make it even harder to follow along with my trades (since neither you nor I really knows what is coming next), but you shouldn't be doing any of that regardless (as always - don't do what I do). If I say I'm going to short strength, or suggest any other future operative - well that may be true or I may change my mind, depending. Thus, I will try to avoid such talk; please call me on it if you see me slip.
If you're here to fade trades, then your job just got a lot harder; or easier, not really sure. Less mouth means less to fade; although the format should be a bit cleaner, so taking the other side just got better perhaps.
This scaled-back public approach has been evolving for some time and aside from fans of the franchise pics, I lost most of the entertainment-only audience some time back (I haven't been on a hunt-n-grunt expedition in what seems like ages, and if I'm not cutting holes in icebergs and flushing out anything with a heartbeat on a daily basis, some of you are plain less than satisfied; can't blame you).
Further, my new skimpier approach is encouraged by nothing less than hard science. Newer studies (this and this), for example, demonstrate that brevity is in and that the number of blogs are beginning to weaken. This is true across the board, but it is especially true amongst teenagers (and if you think teens don't matter in this game, I've got two words for you: online poker. Maybe they don't have the numbers and account sizes to make a significant impact in the direction of the market, but I can assure you the better teen traders are kicking your ass in performance; guaranteed).
Too bad they blow-up so often.
Brevity makes sense, since society is operating more and more on handset screens and users have too little time (and too many social-networking engagements) to get away with reading and writing the novel of the day in blog format.
Fine. One-liners of the day are well and good.
I've given this some thought and it suits me best for now. Market prediction is a subject that costs more than it produces. While I love hearing and reading from others what is coming next (so as to measure it against what I see happening now), my own prediction talk comes with a price (as I am wrapped-up in my own prognostication and less likely then to react/respond to the ever-changing thesis in the present).
I hate that.
On top of it all, I'm frankly a lot better at digesting what is happening right now (quietly) and I'm fairly mediocre where it regards the future (imagine that). When I do set out to write about now I'm unable to stop time in order to discuss it; I might miss something real and relevant because I've stopped to discuss it instead.
I really hate that.
The market is a fluid beast. If I'm going to fight the dragon (or the dentist) and the dragon is a worthy opponent (such as a volatile market), then better to save any press-conferences for after the fight (assuming I have any reserve strength; often I'm rather spent at the end of the day).
Cliff Notes: I will continue to convey trades and positions in real time via Twittspitt, and I will keep-on with the relevant(!) franchise imagery - but mum is the word when it comes to where the market is headed and what I'm intending to do about it. Other (younger) traders might be able to talk and chew gum at the same time - I cannot. Time and energy permitting, I'm happy to include specific trading and investing principles (such as the Trader's Guide series) from time to time. For the more part however, this blog is going to contain less.