Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Updated Position (patient-wait mode)

The market is showing a bit of resilience today, in spite of renewed Dollar strength. I did sell into the early market strength, speculating the higher-open would most likely be challenged, but the reversal hasn't really transpired and I'm mostly waiting instead; slightly net-short for now.

Dull drums of never short a dull market are forcing my hand.

Two things here to note:

SIRO, which was in the midst of a nice breakout yesterday has been cracked-back due to a 2ndary announcement (priced early today at 35.35). I'm going to give my open position a little space, as it is up reasonably still and the chart is not yet concerning. There is a potential entry here and especially then if it can get above the 35.35 offer price (I may not add though, as I already hold a heavy weighting for a relatively thin name). Management owns a big stake of this company, so an offer does not concern me. A hit on the news is rather standard for a strong growth chart and liquidity now will be improved.

CAB [edit: CAB reports before the open tomorrow, not tonight] which is definitely thin, is reporting after the close tonight. I'm looking to exit at least half of this position on the number (potentially shaving it before the close if it can manage nearer to 18, and then more if not all on the news, regardless of the direction). There is a large short interest in the name, which may be a plus on this news (potential for a squeeze on a chart which has managed new highs), but is usually a negative in the long run (big shorts are usually right in the end).

FOMC minutes about to hit, so got to go for now.

Total Position: ~1.2-to-1 net-short, 63% invested

Currently Long (according to size):BEAV (6.9%); SIRO (6%); CAB (5.2%); IAG (reloaded today, 5%); MMR (4.4%); CISG (2.8%);

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, increased today, 9.2%); MS (8%); JPM (6.4%); DB (5%); MED (new today, 3.6%)

Futures Accounts: in and out of Mar Russell 2k short today, for 3+ pt. gain

Twittspitt for details

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