Monday, April 05, 2010

Updated Position (and a whisper kiss from trish)

I'm back on the mainland, rested, and ready to roll.

Too bad there's not much to punch as far as the market.

Rates are rising, the VIX is stable in the face of a lack-luster move to (mostly) higher-highs, optimism is becoming plumb and dumb, volume is light on the advance, financials are lagging, bears are dead, quiet and buried, the Street is in love with laggards now, Oil I'm told is going to lay-up to $100/barrel - I could go on.

Oh, the positive underlying metric of a not-yet improving economy is now waning. I wouldn't expect good economic news from here to help stocks drive higher. Markets have a remarkable tendency to stop rallying when writing on the headline walls report evidence an improving Main st.

Younger days, I would be getting short here. Instead I'm doing my best keeping neutral and waiting for some scent of blood before attacking. And frankly, I don't know that this is going to get so exciting either. I suspect what we have is a market without terrific upside, which will get bought on any strong slice lower, but will quite likely (imo anyway) slowly erode into the drag-out, apathy-period whereby nobody is gaining any great satisfaction, but that prices find themselves lower over time.

Good luck with that environment.

I don't care about 100's, 11,000's, 1220's or any numbers flavoring the headspeak right now. I see a lull action with too many pitfalls to get long and too few technicals to get short. Change one of those and I'm ready to rock!

Oh, Trish's octaves on CNBC rose to trigger-levels for the first time since her return today. I don't want to get into this right now (no time mostly), but for now I want to at least mention it. Mark this day down if you're following Trish.

Total Position: Currently ~1.22-to-1 net-short; 68% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MF (5.9%); TM (5.6%); ULTA (5.3%); BEAV (5.2%); AVGO (4.6%); CISG (3.7%); (HTHT was sold today; will look to reload at first reasonable entry)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 8.9%); DB (6.3%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.4%); FWLT (4.7%); DST (4.5%); MS (4.3%)

Pairs: Covered the F short for now but still holding TM-long. Will either re-short F or unload the TM at some point soon

Futures Accounts: Short 10% NDX Jun Mini, from 1953.50

Twitter page for details

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