Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Bull Butter

In and of itself, today's reversal was impressive. The SP500, which gapped at the open to slightly-below the February low, closed higher in the end; on strong, rising volume.

News may be in the cards for Europe tonight or early tomorrow. I'm not in the prediction business, but action is the Euro today was telegraphing, if not news then a less than end-of-the-Eurozone-world scenario at minimum. Perhaps Trichet is about to hammer rates down towards zero.

Here in the US, I think few participants realize the major indices have not taken out lows from February (I say this because I've seen it mentioned about nill, the fact that we were lower just 3 months ago). So as bad a correction as this has been, is and may perhaps still be - it should be understood that with today's saving grace we have still not managed the lows going back to the previous pullback. Until we manage that much it is just not very dramatic; and not altogether bearish.

I let out some line long today and covered Europe as well (selling the EPV inverse-etf in the end). That sounds standard genius certainly, but I took hearty body shots today as I pushed on shorts, not ready to accept we would indeed reverse (given that breadth held worse than 10-1 negative until about 90 minutes left in the session). I scrambled in the last hour in order to position things accordingly (below).

Since I am in fact in the business of reacting.

Total Position: Currently ~2.33-to-1 net-long; 55% invested

Currently Long (according to size): EWY-S.Korea (7.9%); SBUX (6.0%); EWS-Singapore (5.2%); IOC (new today, 5.3%); OIL (new today, 5.1%); TGT (reloaded today, 4.9%); AKAM (new today, 4.1%); AVGO (reloaded today, 4%); ITMN (0.71%)

Currently Short: SDS-long (SP500 Index Dbl-short, 12.3%); Note: Inverse ETFs currently weighted @1.65 x's

Futures: long 10% Jun Euro future, from 1.233

Twittspit for details

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