Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Clarion Coil (my head - your lunch)

Pushing rather long here at the moment, though I will scramble again to hedge if the skies re-darken. This, until the action in the market can outpace the prevailing darker mood.

Or put another way - the market has still managed to hold above Feb-lows, even with the BP travesty throwing the energy sector to the wolves; and coincident to participants now looking lower lower lower instead of viewing anything like opportunity. These are the same folks who saw no wrong with the market a couple months back and claimed that pullbacks would be clear buying opportunities.

Think about that briefly - numb-heads wanted to buy a pull-back; we got a pullback which, for no lack of drama, has not taken the market below the last pullback in February (just a few months ago); now however, these same saps (my technical term for heads I have to listen to throughout the day) view the market as somehow toxic and are largely sitting on hands instead of buying.

At the same time, market leadership remains strong on the tape, the crash in a chunk of the energy sector (which holds a sizable weighting in the SP500) has not generated overall lower-lows, and last and perhaps least - bear blogs were in a high-five fervor again last night; celebrating the beginning of the never-ending end - Part Doo.

Given this is the last month of a quarter, and professional managers allocate professional dollars (much of which is recently liquidated from the bail-out in the energy stocks), I expect leadership will fare very well as long as the market can surprise these dull spirits (and my clients!) and keep from lower-lows; or simply, rally for the month of June. I consider that a likelihood in fact - although I don't care what I think as much as what kind of bang I am getting for bucking conventional wisdom...I need to be on the right side, not right in and of itself. That's right, I'm rambling incessant just now - surely you can short this!

This month still looks promising to these eyes and not because I prefer abuse. Show me lower-lows and I'll do what I can to adjust. In the meantime, leave me to make some money. We've seen a bull market in fear lately (perhaps the recollection of being flayed has awakened the collective spirit to waking up mid-sleep, sweat cold and minds racing; out-weighing anything like greed).

This, while we still have not managed to take out Feb-lows.

If I am the fool here, very well. I am not trying to be right or even particularly clever. I simply measure what I see (and hear!) relative to the action in front of me. And, there are moments such as now where the action (energy debacles aside) far out-performs the noise.

This is not to say that a roaring bull market is at hand. I don't care to measure it in advance. But anything is possible and given everything...a rally this month is only likely by my standards. After that, what should I know? I don't care if it's only long as I can squeeze 10.

Beast out

Total Position: Currently ~20-to-1 net-long; 73% invested

Currently Long (according to size): JPM (6.5%); TGT (6.4%); EWS-Singapore (6.4%); SBUX (6.3%); AVGO (5.2%); ULTA (5.5%); CRM (5.1%); OVTI (5%); AKAM (4.3%); EWY-S.Korea (4.2%); IOC (reloaded today, 4.2%); GIL (added today, 4%); FFIV (added today, 3.7%); CISG (3.2%)

Currently Short: APOL (3.4%)

Futures: no current position

Twittspit for details

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