Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Updated Position (ditto december lights)
While I did engage in some sloppy trading this week, I'm back on track now today. Similar to the market itself.
I've been reluctant to believe we'll see a typically ditto December (seasonality has been largely upside-down this year and a chorusing clamor in recent weeks has had my guard on high). But December is here and it's snowing out of the gate thus far; if you know what I mean.
I don't need to think, really. As long as the market moves continue to exhibit traction, I prefer to keep a half-step behind instead. As the market began to slide (and especially as the majority of leadership began acting poorly last week) I shifted gradually towards market neutral and eventually net-short by yesterday's close. Today's bang-up comes on strong, rising-volume though and positive internals are severe (implying the major indices will close at or near highs of the session).
I'm holding several shorts at the moment still. If we're rallying again tomorrow I'll be reducing that side of my line further (I let go TWM-hedges in the opening minutes today). In the meantime I haven't gotten too excessive (currently 2.54-1 net-long).
The first day of December is seasonally strong, but standard year-end seasonal strength does not find it's better gear typically until around the 20th of the month. Again, I don't want to write any scripts, but to respond to the market's actual and present nature. If a downtrend resumes, I won't put my head on any Xmas turkey chopping blocks; not for very long anyway.
As of this writing - the corrective action may be over.
Follow Centrifugal to fade trades in real time
Total Position: Currently 2.54-to-1 net-long, 95% invested
Currently Long (according to size): CRM (8.4%); NOV (7.3%); SBUX (7%); LVS (Reloaded today, 6.4%); ULTA (7.4%); COH (6%); OVTI (increasing to 6%); WBC (added today, 6%); ROSE (5.3%); FTNT (added today, 5.1%); RVBD (3.9%)
Currently Short: TNP (7.1%); DSX (7.1%); ERTS (6.3%); DISH (6.2%)
Futures: no current position