Friday, March 26, 2010

Updated Position (and a quiet comment)

Steady as she goes for the market as next week's quarter-end and the big improvement in jobs is scratching closer.

We've seen clear distribution now (yesterday and Friday the most glaring examples), combined with over-enthusiastic heads parading (CNBC and every guest with a head in worry-free mode now).

That does not make a top, but it does light the lighthouse wick. That's as much as I will say for now.

I'm off to Hawaii next week and will be making a much more steady diet of posting once the new-improved economy is upon us and the public can finally confidently get back into stocks; come the week of April 5th.

Total Position: Presently a shade net-long; 80% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (8.1%); MRVL (6%); MF (5.8%); ULTA (5.5%); SIRO (5.5%); AVGO (4.6%); CISG (3.5%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.2%); DB (5.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.8%); DST (4.4%); FWLT (4.4%); MS (4.3%)

Pairs: Long 5.5% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.6% Ford (F), from 14.04 (averaged up on F with previous add-on trade)

Futures Accounts: No current position

Twitter page for details

Monday, March 22, 2010

Updated Position (slightly net-short into new week)

Coming into the new week...

Total Position: ~1.2-to-1 net-short, 84% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.8%); MGA (6.1%); ULTA (5.2%); SIRO (5.5%); AVGO (4.6%); NTGR (4.1%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.5%); MS (6.7%); DB (5.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.8%); DST (4.2%); FWLT (4.3%)

Pairs: Long 5.4% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.3% Ford (F), from 14.04 (averaged up on F with Thursday's add-on trade)

Futures Accounts: Much better trading here lately - currently short 10% Jun SP500 future, from 1156.25; relevant accounts

Twitter page for details

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Updated Position (market-neutral zzzzz)

Taking a bit of a hit here today as lagging names continue to catch-up with leadership. I'm back to market neutral, following reloads short on JPM and FWLT short (speaking of laggards).

Half-full or full of half, you can make whatever case you like - or just refer to it as a melt-up like every TV-head on CNBC lately (CNBC parent GE melting higher must have some affect on the perceptions there, since I don't see anything that qualifies as a melt-up in the market; not to this point anyway).

What I don't like is that leaders are fairly stalled while problem children fan higher (look at XOM now as the latest poster child for catch-up flavor of the week).

You can make the money on those. I'll admit I should be out of this perhaps, since I've gamed myself sideways now for about 3-weeks while the market has caught up with me on the year. Either way I have to answer for under-performing lately and that is the major reason for why I keep it so quiet over here.

Don't do as I say and don't do what I do - especially if I'm not talking!

Keep alert with this action. When any half-wit can make a trading buck by throwing darts below the belt, standing near the exit is often smart. I wish I had consumed a little more of the punch lately, but that is the nature of this activity, being wrong on frequent occasions.

I won't get too down about a misfire here or there, even if I'm simmering silent.

Total Position: ~1.02-to-1 net-long, 102% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TGT (8%); BEAV (7.8%); MGA (6.1%); ULTA (5.5%); SIRO (5.4%); PVH (5.1%); AVGO (4.6%); NTGR (4.3%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.2%); MS (6.9%); DB (6%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.6%); JPM (reloaded yest. close, 5.1%); DST (4.5%); FWLT (reloaded today, 4.5%)

Pairs: Long 5.4% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.5% Ford (F), from 13.09

Futures Accounts: 10% Jun NDX short, from 1915.75

Twitter page for details

Monday, March 15, 2010

Updated Position (slightly net-long)


Total Position: ~1.3-to-1 net-long, 95% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TGT (8%); SBUX (8%); BEAV (7.6%); MGA (6.1%); ULTA (5.4%); SIRO (5.5%); PVH (added today, 5%); AVGO (4.4%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.6%); MS (6.8%); DB (5.8%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.8%); DST (4.3%)

Pairs: Long 5.3% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.3% Ford (F), from 13.09

Futures Accounts: Out 20% short Mar NDX, 1906.75; Rolled into 10% Jun NDX short a few hours later, 1915.75

Twitter page for details

Friday, March 12, 2010

Updated Position (market-neutral)

I've held onto a market-neutral stance, more or less for several days, which for such a week has been a clear mistake.

Better than a short-only stick in the eye at least.

This week laggards were storming higher, especially in terms of relative strength, and my individual shorts (being of the laggard variety) have thus cost more than longs have risen. Certain ULTA's and other highlights have kept me off suicide watch, but this week (and last) have taught me you're never too old to get out of tune and discipline commands continuous effort.

All of this is exhausting (the losing part), which is much of why I've kept quiet on this page. The other reason is that I am (still!) mixed on the outlook, and not overly interested to comment.

Total Position: ~1.05-to-1 net-long, 96% invested

Currently Long (according to size): SBUX (8%); TGT (8%); BEAV (7.7%); MGA (6%); ULTA (5.4%); SIRO (5.4%); AVGO (4.5%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.5%); MS (6.9%); GOOG (6.2%); DB (5.8%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.7%); DST (4.4%)

Pairs: Long 5.2% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.2% Ford (F), from 13.09

Futures Accounts: Mar Russell2k - now flat; this wk added 10% at 676.90, covered 10% at 669.60 and covered remaining 10%, 672.10; Remain 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twitter page for details

Monday, March 08, 2010

Updated Position (sans commentary)

Total Position: ~1.43-to-1 net-short, 86% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.4%); SBUX (6.2%); SIRO (5.5%); NETL (5.4%); ULTA (4.5%); AVGO (4.4%); NTGR (4.1%); CISG (3.5%)

Currently Short: GOOG (reloaded friday, 6%); GS (reloaded smaller tranche monday, 4.5%); MS (8.7%); DB (7.4%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 6.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.9%); DST (4.3%); FWLT (reloaded friday, 4.2%)

Futures Accounts: short 10% Mar Russell2k from 662.15 ave; 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twitter page for details

Thursday, March 04, 2010

Updated Position (flying neutral)


Fully invested here, though basically market-neutral; expecting to commit to one side more than the other tomorrow, depending on action following the employment report.

Note - GS is on the brink of stopping me out, printing a close just above the 200-day on higher volume. Technically, I should have been stopped, yet it was trading only at the 200-day as the 4pm bell sounded; I'll be unloading on any further strength tomorrow, possibly before the open; will hold if it looks to open lower and stays below the bench.

Total Position
: ~1.07-to-1 net-short, 98% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.3%); TJX (6.4%); SBUX (6.1%); ATHR (reloaded today, 6%); CAL (5.5%); SIRO (reloaded today, 5.4%); NETL (5.2%); ULTA (4.5%); NTGR (4.1%); CISG (3.3%); AVGO (added today, 3%)

Currently Short: GS (8.7%); MS (8.6%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.2%); CSX (5.2%); DB (7.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 6.2%); DST (4.2%)

Futures Accounts: Out of Mar Euro short, 1.3646; remain 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Updated Position (prune and tune)

Still managing to eek out gains, though more short than long at this point still. I let go of TM long early today and was helped by CISG's big move following earnings; added to DB short, as well as EPV; let go JPM short and added CAL long to keep balanced.

Total Position
: ~1.27-to-1 net-short, 88% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.3%); TJX (6.4%); SBUX (6.1%); TM (6%); CAL (added today, 5.5%); NETL (5.4%); ULTA (4.3%); NTGR (reduced yesterday @close, 4.1%); CISG (3.3%)

Currently Short: GS (8.4%); MS (8.3%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.2%); CSX (5.2%); DB (increased today, 7.1%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, increased today, 6.1%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: added 10% Mar Euro short, 1.3715; 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

A Trader's Guide to Individual Shorts - Part II

GS Setups Short (off the October 2009 top)...posted to Evil Speculator just now.

Updated Position (slightly net-short still)

Reloaded DB short and added TJX long today - itsy bitsy bearish stance overall..

Total Position
: ~1.28-to-1 net-short, 94% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.3%); TJX (added today, 6.4%); SBUX (6.2%); TM (6%); NTGR (5.7%); NETL (5.4%); ULTA (4.2%); CISG (2.9%)

**CISG to release earnings tonight - scheduled for 8PM EST

Currently Short: GS (8.5%); MS (8.4%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.3%); JPM (6.6%); CSX (5.3%); DB (reloaded today, 5.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 4.8%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Monday, March 01, 2010

Updated Position (long song)


Adjusting slightly less net-short today, but pleased shorts here are up much less than longs on the session (big financials are rallying least today in the face of a strong Dollar rally).

Coming in nearly twice as short as long and still making money is less than brutal, certainly. But I can't count on the financials cooperating tomorrow if the market continues to rally. I'm watching volume and percentage gains in the major indices closely - if we close up 1.5% or more on rising volume I'll be dropping a good percentage of the short-side below.

We've yet to see a strong percentage rally on strong, rising volume (since the early February lows). That would constitute a follow-through session; indicating evidence of institutional net-buying, confirming the market is in a new trend upward.

Regardless of what I might think about the prospects for stocks, I won't be hanging out more short than long if large institutions begin rising to the surface.

Should that occur.

Total Position: ~1.38-to-1 net-short, 82% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (6.9%); SBUX (6.2%); TM (reloaded today, 5.9%); NTGR (reduced today, 5.5%); NETL (5.3%); ULTA (4%); CISG (2.9%)

Currently Short: GS (8.4%); MS (8.3%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.5%); JPM (6.7%); CSX (5.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 4.9%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details