Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Stuck Stuck Stuck (but not like a pig)

Unfortunately for me, drama waits for no one.

I finally got caught and with a third of fingertips on the stove-top. My real mistake was not selling Monday's open, as per the general plan; something of a blunder.

Aside from that I have no complaints. No one likes to lose money, but in this business when you do lose, you need the guy next to you losing much more. My year remains successful.

As for the market, there are more dedicated views than mine just now, but I'm not particularly bearish (and certainly not bullish). There are numerous broken heroes and subsequent industry groups (always a recipe for caution). And yet, damage to the indices, relative to the drama, has not been especially devastating. We’re flushing now, which can mark a short-term low, and while there is a flurry of lower- lows (certainly compared to June-lows), new 52-week lows are far from significant. In other words, the broad market might be less unhealthy than the surface and certainly vs. the current emotion and sentiment.

The environment is still tricky and being aggressive here (long or short) is perhaps ambitious. I’ll continue with a low profile, but if I can see a tradable bounce (perhaps off of today’s lows) I might push aggressively for a day or three and then back-off again. Otherwise I'm just looking at stopping out of positions (late-session if without severe volume + downside). The current portfolio is damaged, but less so compared to the market; I’ve just had too much of it for this week, and without any hedge since last week.

Take what the market gives you and be patient when action is tricky. There was plenty of short-side opportunity lately, but that requires serious attention and I've been in summer mode. You are young and can last all year, so you’ve been able to take advantage of the volatility; you got me there ;)


That's my thoughts, in rambling fashion; for the record if nothing else.

Follow @Centrifugal to fade trades in real time

Total Position: Currently 100% net-long, 34% invested

Currently Long (according to size): JNJ (9.4%), BMY (8.2%), VRX (6%), ACTG (5.9%), RBN (4.8%)

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