Thursday, May 19, 2011

Blitz Thoughts re ONXX (talking my book, sucker)

I'm nothing of a biologist, so dismiss anything I have to say here regarding cancer drugs in clinical development. I'm also in a hurry and this is sloppy, so just dismiss all of it.

Sucks to be me.

My expertise is trading stocks and to my eyes, the Biotech group (at moment) is your best beast and ONXX is something of a monster stock (i.e. beast!).

Don't do what I do, but here is why I do it...

ONXX is extended, and selling-off today on news of phase-II trial results re Nexavar. As I suggested, the stock has demonstrated sufficient relative-strength and momentum to elevate it to the top of my buy-long lists. Nexavar is already deemed effective for use in kidney and liver cancer. The drug prolongs life and does not cure the fatal nature of these diseases. More recently though, they are testing compounds of the drug for use in other cancers.

ONXX will report further data on June 6th, at ASCO.

Here is my strategy on buying the dip today in the name, though it can go certainly trade lower...

The market is still a little suspect (since early May), but healthcare and biotech acting very well. The top industry groups at moment, as measured by relative strength, are littered with Biotech and Healthcare. This is your true market leadership, as far as industry groups.

ONXX, is at a buy-point this morning (between 42-43). Speculative, but very powerful, and with an exciting, developing pipeline (maybe).

I've been trading this name long the last few weeks - sold yesterday and re-bot now today. Don't get jealous though - I also had emergency root canal this week.

Plunger boy!

For a trade, you buy today and sell just ahead of the Jun 6th presentation of data.

For a speculative investment, you would buy today and hold for the presentation; bail-out only if they ultimately disappoint w the presentation of data; or if stopped-out prior.

The 3rd option is to sell half or more before the presentation and hold some for the event. This is my likely play; subject to change any time.

Benchmarks for stop-loss are going to be a moving target. I will keep mine defined via Twitter posts. No guarantees and I might get it exactly wrong. Fade me instead sucker.

Keep it light - it's a mover

Follow @Centrifugal (still!) to fade trades in real time

ONXX: May 19, 2011 (intraday). click chart twice to expand