This is That Bounce

That was an exciting title - now for the boring details...

Last week's high-volume slice lower was born out of new, higher-highs in the market. Generally you can count on that scenario getting bot, even if the market is within a larger topping process.

It is on the ensuing bounce one can determine the amount of power, or distribution, etc.

Financials are showing distribution on the bounce, while technology and energy have lacked much volume, but are exhibiting reasonable power.

AAPL, however is a little sluggish and that one reports tonight. Tomorrow may see a little drama on the heels of AAPL eps.

If I were supposed to predict, I would guess there is not much upside in stocks for the short-term, but we're still one high-volume distribution day from suggesting significant downside is now imminent.

Grinding like my teeth at night might be more likely for the time being.

I re-shifted to net-long again yesterday, though nothing dramatic, and I'm looking to short another financial late today or early tomorrow in order to flatten-out exposure. MS reports in the morning (remains my largest short) and I will hold pat there for that news. DB is impossible to borrow at the moment and options are too expensive and too ill-liquid - otherwise I would be looking to attack DB on the bounce today.

I may just go ahead and short GS instead. Even if GS avoids any major legal defeats, there is enough damage and enough uncertainty going forward (regulation in particular, which means investors cannot judge the new rules of the game for Goldman, and neighbors like DB, MS, etc).

I'm looking to lighten longs again into this strength. Whether or not I buy them back again afterward depends on whether or not the action remains formidable.

Easy enough.

Total Position: Currently ~1.2-to-1 net-long; 70% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MF (6.2%); CISG (5.6%); SBUX (5.4%); CHS (5%); NTGR (3.8%); DGIT (3.8%); ULTA (3.6%); CAAS (3.5%); WATG (3.2%); AVGO (3%)

Currently Short: MS (8%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 5.8%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.4%); DST (4.5%); SKF-long (Financial Index Dbl-short, 3.7%)

Futures: 10% short Jun R2k future short (reloaded today and active there lately), from 717.20; relevant accounts

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (smaller and slightly net-short)

Covered plenty short today, a little late or else too early, depending on your outlook. Anyway, I was trimming longs aggressively this week, so cutting shorts today has been a gentle, back-handed way to finally reduce size, keep a little net-short and watch how the market develops from here.

Such drama.

Total Position: Currently ~1.3-to-1 net-short; 55% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MF (6.1%); SBUX (5.3%); CISG (5.3%); DGIT (3.8%); ULTA (3.7%); AVGO (2.9%)

Currently Short: MS (7.8%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 5.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.5%); DST (4.5%); SKF-long (Financial Index Dbl-short, 3.8%)

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (shocking neutral still)

I'm still mum, though doing reasonably well and remain market-neutral; hovering between slightly net-short or long for as net-long as I can remember.

Sentiment has become a real concern, but as markets only rise and this is an OPEX week, there should be nothing but upside for the market ;)

Total Position: Currently ~1.15-to-1 net-long; 86% invested

Currently Long (according to size): DGIT (6.3%); MF (6.8%); ULTA (5.7%); TM (5.4%); BEAV (5.2%); SBUX (5.2%); AVGO (4.6%); CISG (3.8%); CHBT (3.6%); HTHT (3.4%)
Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 8.6%); MS (8.2%); DB (6.3%); JPM (5.6%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.3%); DST (4.5%)

Pairs: Covered the F short for now but still holding TM-long. Will either re-short F or unload the TM at some point soon

Futures Accounts: Short 20% NDX Jun, 1988.875 ave. entry
Options: .24% MS put options for Jul, entry 1.84/contract

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (and a whisper kiss from trish)

I'm back on the mainland, rested, and ready to roll.

Too bad there's not much to punch as far as the market.

Rates are rising, the VIX is stable in the face of a lack-luster move to (mostly) higher-highs, optimism is becoming plumb and dumb, volume is light on the advance, financials are lagging, bears are dead, quiet and buried, the Street is in love with laggards now, Oil I'm told is going to lay-up to $100/barrel - I could go on.

Oh, the positive underlying metric of a not-yet improving economy is now waning. I wouldn't expect good economic news from here to help stocks drive higher. Markets have a remarkable tendency to stop rallying when writing on the headline walls report evidence an improving Main st.

Younger days, I would be getting short here. Instead I'm doing my best keeping neutral and waiting for some scent of blood before attacking. And frankly, I don't know that this is going to get so exciting either. I suspect what we have is a market without terrific upside, which will get bought on any strong slice lower, but will quite likely (imo anyway) slowly erode into the drag-out, apathy-period whereby nobody is gaining any great satisfaction, but that prices find themselves lower over time.

Good luck with that environment.

I don't care about 100's, 11,000's, 1220's or any numbers flavoring the headspeak right now. I see a lull action with too many pitfalls to get long and too few technicals to get short. Change one of those and I'm ready to rock!

Oh, Trish's octaves on CNBC rose to trigger-levels for the first time since her return today. I don't want to get into this right now (no time mostly), but for now I want to at least mention it. Mark this day down if you're following Trish.

Total Position: Currently ~1.22-to-1 net-short; 68% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MF (5.9%); TM (5.6%); ULTA (5.3%); BEAV (5.2%); AVGO (4.6%); CISG (3.7%); (HTHT was sold today; will look to reload at first reasonable entry)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 8.9%); DB (6.3%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.4%); FWLT (4.7%); DST (4.5%); MS (4.3%)

Pairs: Covered the F short for now but still holding TM-long. Will either re-short F or unload the TM at some point soon

Futures Accounts: Short 10% NDX Jun Mini, from 1953.50

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (and a quiet comment)

Steady as she goes for the market as next week's quarter-end and the big improvement in jobs is scratching closer.

We've seen clear distribution now (yesterday and Friday the most glaring examples), combined with over-enthusiastic heads parading (CNBC and every guest with a head in worry-free mode now).

That does not make a top, but it does light the lighthouse wick. That's as much as I will say for now.

I'm off to Hawaii next week and will be making a much more steady diet of posting once the new-improved economy is upon us and the public can finally confidently get back into stocks; come the week of April 5th.

Total Position: Presently a shade net-long; 80% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (8.1%); MRVL (6%); MF (5.8%); ULTA (5.5%); SIRO (5.5%); AVGO (4.6%); CISG (3.5%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.2%); DB (5.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.8%); DST (4.4%); FWLT (4.4%); MS (4.3%)

Pairs: Long 5.5% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.6% Ford (F), from 14.04 (averaged up on F with previous add-on trade)

Futures Accounts: No current position

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (slightly net-short into new week)

Coming into the new week...

Total Position: ~1.2-to-1 net-short, 84% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.8%); MGA (6.1%); ULTA (5.2%); SIRO (5.5%); AVGO (4.6%); NTGR (4.1%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.5%); MS (6.7%); DB (5.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.8%); DST (4.2%); FWLT (4.3%)

Pairs: Long 5.4% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.3% Ford (F), from 14.04 (averaged up on F with Thursday's add-on trade)

Futures Accounts: Much better trading here lately - currently short 10% Jun SP500 future, from 1156.25; relevant accounts

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (market-neutral zzzzz)

Taking a bit of a hit here today as lagging names continue to catch-up with leadership. I'm back to market neutral, following reloads short on JPM and FWLT short (speaking of laggards).

Half-full or full of half, you can make whatever case you like - or just refer to it as a melt-up like every TV-head on CNBC lately (CNBC parent GE melting higher must have some affect on the perceptions there, since I don't see anything that qualifies as a melt-up in the market; not to this point anyway).

What I don't like is that leaders are fairly stalled while problem children fan higher (look at XOM now as the latest poster child for catch-up flavor of the week).

You can make the money on those. I'll admit I should be out of this perhaps, since I've gamed myself sideways now for about 3-weeks while the market has caught up with me on the year. Either way I have to answer for under-performing lately and that is the major reason for why I keep it so quiet over here.

Don't do as I say and don't do what I do - especially if I'm not talking!

Keep alert with this action. When any half-wit can make a trading buck by throwing darts below the belt, standing near the exit is often smart. I wish I had consumed a little more of the punch lately, but that is the nature of this activity, being wrong on frequent occasions.

I won't get too down about a misfire here or there, even if I'm simmering silent.

Total Position: ~1.02-to-1 net-long, 102% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TGT (8%); BEAV (7.8%); MGA (6.1%); ULTA (5.5%); SIRO (5.4%); PVH (5.1%); AVGO (4.6%); NTGR (4.3%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.2%); MS (6.9%); DB (6%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.6%); JPM (reloaded yest. close, 5.1%); DST (4.5%); FWLT (reloaded today, 4.5%)

Pairs: Long 5.4% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.5% Ford (F), from 13.09

Futures Accounts: 10% Jun NDX short, from 1915.75

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (slightly net-long)

Total Position: ~1.3-to-1 net-long, 95% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TGT (8%); SBUX (8%); BEAV (7.6%); MGA (6.1%); ULTA (5.4%); SIRO (5.5%); PVH (added today, 5%); AVGO (4.4%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.6%); MS (6.8%); DB (5.8%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.8%); DST (4.3%)

Pairs: Long 5.3% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.3% Ford (F), from 13.09

Futures Accounts: Out 20% short Mar NDX, 1906.75; Rolled into 10% Jun NDX short a few hours later, 1915.75

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (market-neutral)

I've held onto a market-neutral stance, more or less for several days, which for such a week has been a clear mistake.

Better than a short-only stick in the eye at least.

This week laggards were storming higher, especially in terms of relative strength, and my individual shorts (being of the laggard variety) have thus cost more than longs have risen. Certain ULTA's and other highlights have kept me off suicide watch, but this week (and last) have taught me you're never too old to get out of tune and discipline commands continuous effort.

All of this is exhausting (the losing part), which is much of why I've kept quiet on this page. The other reason is that I am (still!) mixed on the outlook, and not overly interested to comment.

Total Position: ~1.05-to-1 net-long, 96% invested

Currently Long (according to size): SBUX (8%); TGT (8%); BEAV (7.7%); MGA (6%); ULTA (5.4%); SIRO (5.4%); AVGO (4.5%); CISG (3.4%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.5%); MS (6.9%); GOOG (6.2%); DB (5.8%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.7%); DST (4.4%)

Pairs: Long 5.2% long Toyota (TM), from 76.90 + Short 5.2% Ford (F), from 13.09

Futures Accounts: Mar Russell2k - now flat; this wk added 10% at 676.90, covered 10% at 669.60 and covered remaining 10%, 672.10; Remain 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (sans commentary)

Total Position: ~1.43-to-1 net-short, 86% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.4%); SBUX (6.2%); SIRO (5.5%); NETL (5.4%); ULTA (4.5%); AVGO (4.4%); NTGR (4.1%); CISG (3.5%)

Currently Short: GOOG (reloaded friday, 6%); GS (reloaded smaller tranche monday, 4.5%); MS (8.7%); DB (7.4%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 6.9%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 5.9%); DST (4.3%); FWLT (reloaded friday, 4.2%)

Futures Accounts: short 10% Mar Russell2k from 662.15 ave; 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twitter page for details

Updated Position (flying neutral)

Fully invested here, though basically market-neutral; expecting to commit to one side more than the other tomorrow, depending on action following the employment report.

Note - GS is on the brink of stopping me out, printing a close just above the 200-day on higher volume. Technically, I should have been stopped, yet it was trading only at the 200-day as the 4pm bell sounded; I'll be unloading on any further strength tomorrow, possibly before the open; will hold if it looks to open lower and stays below the bench.

Total Position: ~1.07-to-1 net-short, 98% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.3%); TJX (6.4%); SBUX (6.1%); ATHR (reloaded today, 6%); CAL (5.5%); SIRO (reloaded today, 5.4%); NETL (5.2%); ULTA (4.5%); NTGR (4.1%); CISG (3.3%); AVGO (added today, 3%)

Currently Short: GS (8.7%); MS (8.6%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.2%); CSX (5.2%); DB (7.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 6.2%); DST (4.2%)

Futures Accounts: Out of Mar Euro short, 1.3646; remain 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Updated Position (prune and tune)

Still managing to eek out gains, though more short than long at this point still. I let go of TM long early today and was helped by CISG's big move following earnings; added to DB short, as well as EPV; let go JPM short and added CAL long to keep balanced.

Total Position: ~1.27-to-1 net-short, 88% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.3%); TJX (6.4%); SBUX (6.1%); TM (6%); CAL (added today, 5.5%); NETL (5.4%); ULTA (4.3%); NTGR (reduced yesterday @close, 4.1%); CISG (3.3%)

Currently Short: GS (8.4%); MS (8.3%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.2%); CSX (5.2%); DB (increased today, 7.1%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, increased today, 6.1%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: added 10% Mar Euro short, 1.3715; 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

A Trader's Guide to Individual Shorts - Part II

GS Setups Short (off the October 2009 top)...posted to Evil Speculator just now.

Updated Position (slightly net-short still)

Reloaded DB short and added TJX long today - itsy bitsy bearish stance overall..

Total Position: ~1.28-to-1 net-short, 94% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7.3%); TJX (added today, 6.4%); SBUX (6.2%); TM (6%); NTGR (5.7%); NETL (5.4%); ULTA (4.2%); CISG (2.9%)

**CISG to release earnings tonight - scheduled for 8PM EST

Currently Short: GS (8.5%); MS (8.4%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.3%); JPM (6.6%); CSX (5.3%); DB (reloaded today, 5.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 4.8%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Updated Position (long song)

Adjusting slightly less net-short today, but pleased shorts here are up much less than longs on the session (big financials are rallying least today in the face of a strong Dollar rally).

Coming in nearly twice as short as long and still making money is less than brutal, certainly. But I can't count on the financials cooperating tomorrow if the market continues to rally. I'm watching volume and percentage gains in the major indices closely - if we close up 1.5% or more on rising volume I'll be dropping a good percentage of the short-side below.

We've yet to see a strong percentage rally on strong, rising volume (since the early February lows). That would constitute a follow-through session; indicating evidence of institutional net-buying, confirming the market is in a new trend upward.

Regardless of what I might think about the prospects for stocks, I won't be hanging out more short than long if large institutions begin rising to the surface.

Should that occur.

Total Position: ~1.38-to-1 net-short, 82% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (6.9%); SBUX (6.2%); TM (reloaded today, 5.9%); NTGR (reduced today, 5.5%); NETL (5.3%); ULTA (4%); CISG (2.9%)

Currently Short: GS (8.4%); MS (8.3%); TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 7.5%); JPM (6.7%); CSX (5.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, 4.9%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Updated Position (kinder, gentler short stance)

As according to the adjusted strategy outlined yesterday, I did cover a bit on weakness today, and then shorted a bit on strength. All told I managed to pare back to ~1.7-to-1 net-short overall, a level I'm more comfortable with given the present action; today was positive here, in that sense especially.

I'm heading up to the Northwest this weekend; see if I can't build a fire in the wilderness; otherwise eat raw some helpless creature in order to put this week behind me.

Wish me luck ;)

Total Position: ~1.7-to-1 net-short, 81% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NTGR (7.4%); BEAV (6.9%); SBUX (added today, 6.1%); NETL (5%); ULTA (3.9%); CISG (3%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, decreased today, 7.7%); MS (8.3%); JPM (increased today, 10.1%%); GS (increased today, 8.4%); CSX (5.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, added today, 5%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: Out 10% Mar SP500 short, from 1097.00; Out 10% Mar Russell 2k short, from 625.20; Remain 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Twittspitt for details

Strategy Shift

I've traded poorly this last week and today was sloppiest yet. That said, the continuing lack of volume and traction following rally days, aside from exciting near-reversal sessions like today, have caused me to switch-up the attack here.

As long as it works (going forward, since today I was caught between two approaches), I'm going back to selling strength instead of adjusting neutral or net-long as the market begins flashing strength (which is how I'd been positioning since the market stopped making lower-lows early in the month).

While one could argue the downside is not following through either, I think that depressants are growing here, the volume on down-days is running clearly ahead of the anemic volume during rallies (implies no institutional commitment) and a market which works sideways-to-down in such a slow, deliberate fashion is apt to begin cascading lower before any substantial rally can begin.

In short, I'll short and sell-long on strength, looking to retain the better longs (since I need stronger longs should my thesis of a weakening market be ill-timed, wrong or irrelevant) and sell sell sell the weaker names and indices as they rally (especially if any sense of a buy-panic is present).

This is why I played rope-a-dope today as the market recovered. Yes, if we had managed a major-volume reversal I would have responded (I will definitely respond if we get something of a follow-through session...a significant gain on rising volume, three or more days following fresh lows in the majors). Otherwise, on a day like today, then in the morning I'm a net-buyer (or net-covering) and in the afternoon I am a seller.

Total Position: ~2.33-to-1 net-short, 78% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NTGR (7.3%); BEAV (6.9%); NETL (4.9%); ULTA (3.9%); CISG (2.9%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 11.6%); MS (8.1%); JPM (6.5%); GS (6.3%); FWLT (5.65%); CSX (5.2%); EPV-long (European Index Dbl-short, added today, 5%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: 10% Mar SP500 short, from 1089.25; 10% Mar Russell 2k short, from 622.10; 20% short Mar NDX, from 1795.00

Updated Position (firmly into net-short camp)

Attacking this tape today; while nothing yet extreme, accounts are further net-short now since anytime since February 4th...

Total Position: ~2.1-to-1 net-short, 72% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NTGR (7.2%); BEAV (6.7%); NETL (4.8%); ULTA (added yesterday, 3.8%); CISG (2.8%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, increased today, 11.9%); MS (8%); JPM (6.4%); GS (6.2%); FWLT (added today, 5.4%); CSX (5%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: 10% Mar SP500 short, from 1089.25; 10% Mar Russell 2k short, from 622.10

Updated Position (knocked neutral)

Back and forth here continuing still. Yesterday's negative action appeared to have traction and I'll admit to being surprised at finding the opposite tape today. I'm not going to be any less mercurial than the market itself, but at the same time I will start scaling back if I can't keep things working.

Total Position: ~1.1-to-1 net-long, 76% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NTGR (7.3%); BEAV (6.9%); QLD (added today, 6.4%); SIRO (6.2%); BUCY (5.4%); NETL (5%); CISG (2.9%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, decreased today, 6.4%); MS (8.2%); JPM (6.5%); GS (6.3%); CSX (5.1%); DST (4.1%)

Futures Accounts: Out NDX Mar future short, 1815.25

GS Black Cross

Brief piece regarding the Black Cross on the GS chart, posted to Evil Speculator just now...here

Updated Position (net-short)

Not in love with today's development action; scaled out of worst performing longs and added to shorts...

Total Position: ~1.7-to-1 net-short, 70% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NTGR (7.2%); BEAV (6.8%); SIRO (6.3%); NETL (4.9%); CISG (2.8%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, increased today, 11.8%); MS (8.2%); JPM (6.5%); GS (added today, 6.4%); CSX (5.1%); DST (added yesterday, 4.1%)

Futures Accounts: no current position



Twittspitt for details

Updated Position (further net-long)

While we're not banging-higher on the first day of the week (something notable, since the first trading days have been strong-only for several months), we're more or less stable still; holding gains from the recent bounce.

Unless and until half-full fools begin to empty, I'm adhering to the adage of not selling into a dull market.

I've added further long today, but am so far holding onto hedges. I did close-out MMR-long for now - energy names are weak today in spite of the SII merger (weak nat. gas not helping) and MMR has a potentially ominous rr-track formation (zzzzz) on the daily chart; will look to re-visit MMR should it survive all of that. Finally, TIE is expected to report after the close today; it is acting well so far and I'm looking to hold for eps unless it stalls, reverses and/or fails today.

Total Position: ~1.36-to-1 net-long, 73% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TM (7.8%); NTGR (7.3%); BEAV (7%); SIRO (6.3%); NETL (added today, 5%); RVBD (added today, 4.3%); TIE (reports after the close, 4.2%); CISG (2.9%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9%); MS (8%); JPM (6.5%); CSX (5.2%)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Twittspitt for details

Front Pocket List of Eligible Longs

Click to enlarge^^

While the market hasn't been exactly stellar lately (tepid volume on rally days and a clear dearth so far of important bellwether breakouts), it has been rising in the face of a rising Dollar, while commodities prices have been firm, and sentiment readings have improved notably.

Don't do what I do, since I'm hopefully undoing anything before my own undoing - but from the current, highest ranking industry groups (above) I'm highlighting (IMO) the better technical+fundamental eligible names, for use if the market continues improving.

Here is my updated list of go-to longs in the event we improve from here...

Elec-Contract Mfg:
SANM (extended)
JBL
CLS
PLXS
BHE (thin)

Airlines:
UAUA
CAL
DAL
GOL
LCC

Comml Svcs-Printing:
VPRT
CGX (thin, extended)

Machinery-Mtl Hdlg/Autmn:
HOLI (Chinese, very thin)
SSYS (thin)

Internet-ISP:
INAP (poor-ish fundamentals)
(everything else here too thin and/or other problems)

Oil&Gas-US Expl Prod:
MMR
XEC
NFX
CXO
PETD (thin)
APC
KWK
CRZO
APA
ATLS

Steel-Specialty Alloys:
TIE (reports Monday 21st)
ATI
CRS

Medical- Generic Drugs:
HITK
HSP
PRX
TEVA
WPI

Oil&Gas-Refining/Mkt:
IOC
WPZ
ANW
HOC

Retail-Restaurants:
SBUX
CAKE
CMG
PNRA
PFCB
BJRI

Cosmetics/Personal Care:
EL (extended)
NUS
REV (thin)

Medical-Systems/Equip:
SIRO
ISRG (high PEG)
MR (Chinese)
GIVN (very thin)
KCI

Apparel-Shoes & Rel Mfg:
SHOO (thin)
DECK (the someday-short still acting well)

Retail-Misc:
ULTA
JAS
SBH

Machinery-Constr/Mining:
BUCY
JOYG
MTW

Oil&Gas-Transport/Pipe:
EPB
WMZ (very thin)
PVR (very thin)


Oil&Gas-Machinery/Equip:
DRQ
CAM
NOV
LUFK (very thin)
BHI
FTI
DRC
CRR (thin)

Additionally, the Semi-Mfg and Computer-Network groups (ranked #25 and #31 respectively) have risen rapidly of late...

Elec-Semiconductor Mfg:
NETL
ATHR
ISSI (thin, extended)
VLTR
SNDK

Computer-Networking:
NTGR
RVBD

Updated Position (slightly net-long)

One big marketplace...so many faces.

Thus far, interest rate and equity markets are taking the Fed action in stride. I've covered a bit on the financial side (DB for now); I've added to longs (reloading TM and adding to NTGR); and I swapped metal-related longs - out of IAG and into TIE-long (which is slated to report on Monday, btw). I also covered yesterday's late-session Russell 2000 future shorts on the heels of the Fed's announcement re the discount rate.

I'm more long than short, not exactly committed to either face.

Total Position: ~1.20-to-1 net-long, 68% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TM (reloaded today, 7.8%); BEAV (7.1%); NTGR (increased today, 6.5%); TIE (reloaded today, 4%); SIRO (6.2%); MMR (5.3%); CISG (2.9%);

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9%); MS (8%); JPM (6.4%); CSX (5.1%)

Futures Accounts: out 10% Mar Russell 2k short last night, 624.40 ave

Twittspitt for details

The Change in the Discount Rate

I posted a little history tonight re the Fed's change in the discount rate; on Evil Speculator here.

Updated Position (slightly net-short...still)

Nothing too dramatic today - the market has rallied further, but volume is quite anemic. Financials not participating was helpful here, but body-shots from CAB earnings more than made up for it.

Boom!

Total Position: ~1.25-to-1 net-short, 64% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BEAV (7%); SIRO (6.1%); IAG (5.1%); MMR (increased today, 5.3%); NTGR (4.5%); CISG (2.8%);

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 9.1%); MS (8%); JPM (6.5%); DB (5.2%); CSX (reloaded today, 5%)

Futures Accounts: reloaded 10% Mar Russell 2k short, 626.75 ave

Twittspitt for details